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2028 forecast · Wyoming · Republican primary

Wyoming Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 71% of runs
56.3%Vance's projected share
7,829Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance56.3%4,41071%37.1%
Rubio26.9%2,10918%11.8%
Trump Jr.6.7%5229%11.1%
DeSantis0.9%741%7.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Wyoming votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
VanceRubio

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Wyoming
America First48%
Populist working class24%
Suburban professional15%
Libertarian10%
Republican leaning independents3%

Black 0.1%, Hispanic 3.2%, Asian and other 1.2%, under 30 8.2%, 65 and up 35.3%, college graduates 36.6%, women 44.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,590 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 7,829 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Laramie County1,155Vance53.2%Rubio30.5%
Natrona County980Vance56.2%Rubio27.1%
Campbell County630Vance59.5%Rubio23.3%
Park County509Vance57.7%Rubio25.5%
Sweetwater County497Vance58.2%Rubio24.7%
Sheridan County475Vance57.3%Rubio25.9%
Fremont County451Vance57.7%Rubio25.4%
Albany County423Vance46.5%Rubio38.2%
Lincoln County354Vance59.2%Rubio23.6%
Teton County295Rubio42.8%Vance42.4%
Uinta County286Vance59.1%Rubio23.8%
Converse County227Vance59.5%Rubio23.3%
Carbon County196Vance58.3%Rubio24.6%
Big Horn County191Vance60.0%Rubio22.7%
Goshen County190Vance59.1%Rubio23.7%
Johnson County154Vance58.9%Rubio24.0%
Sublette County152Vance58.2%Rubio24.8%
Platte County151Vance60.2%Rubio22.5%
Crook County149Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Washakie County122Vance59.5%Rubio23.3%
Weston County120Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Hot Springs County80Vance59.4%Rubio23.5%
Niobrara County42Vance61.1%Rubio21.3%