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2028 forecast · Florida · Republican primary

Florida Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

RubioFavorite, wins 41% of runs
30.7%Rubio's projected share
2,489,635Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Rubio30.7%763,38641%23.4%
Vance28.6%712,06232%25.8%
Trump Jr.17.0%424,2367%8.4%
DeSantis10.9%272,47620%17.6%
Haley2.3%57,497<1%1.3%
Kennedy Jr.1.3%33,253<1%2.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Florida votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
RubioVanceTrump Jr.

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Florida
America First44%
Suburban professional23%
Populist working class18%
Libertarian11%

Black 4%, Hispanic 13.7%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 8%, 65 and up 37.5%, college graduates 43.2%, women 44.7%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,361,805 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,489,635 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Miami-Dade County247,743Rubio36.8%Trump Jr.18.4%
Broward County160,149Rubio37.4%Vance23.0%
Palm Beach County159,214Rubio42.8%Vance23.7%
Hillsborough County146,673Rubio42.8%Vance22.9%
Orange County119,894Rubio45.3%Vance20.6%
Pinellas County118,716Rubio42.2%Vance26.1%
Lee County98,159Vance33.9%Rubio23.9%
Duval County94,185Rubio31.8%Vance28.7%
Brevard County87,070Vance33.5%Rubio26.3%
Polk County80,913Vance33.5%Trump Jr.23.9%
Pasco County78,938Vance34.2%Rubio23.4%
Volusia County74,736Vance34.7%Rubio22.5%
Sarasota County67,652Rubio40.5%Vance27.7%
Seminole County57,298Rubio38.6%Vance25.8%
Manatee County56,244Rubio35.2%Vance29.6%
Collier County56,013Vance31.5%Rubio29.0%
Lake County54,476Vance35.0%Trump Jr.21.8%
Marion County52,354Vance36.5%Trump Jr.25.4%
St. Johns County51,690Rubio37.0%Vance28.8%
St. Lucie County39,658Vance33.2%Trump Jr.22.6%
Osceola County37,919Rubio30.9%Vance24.3%
Escambia County36,322Vance34.9%Trump Jr.21.4%
Clay County32,327Vance36.0%Trump Jr.23.2%
Charlotte County31,361Vance38.1%Trump Jr.22.5%
Santa Rosa County31,242Vance37.2%Trump Jr.21.4%
Leon County29,826Rubio41.2%Vance23.9%
Okaloosa County29,709Vance35.4%Rubio21.6%
Hernando County28,769Vance36.9%Trump Jr.25.1%
Alachua County27,375Rubio45.0%Vance22.7%
Citrus County26,559Vance39.1%Trump Jr.26.9%
Sumter County26,393Vance38.6%Trump Jr.23.3%
Bay County26,268Vance37.1%Trump Jr.22.7%
Martin County25,262Vance33.9%Rubio26.5%
Indian River County24,500Vance35.1%Rubio23.4%
Flagler County19,637Vance35.8%Trump Jr.20.5%
Nassau County17,991Vance37.4%Trump Jr.21.6%
Walton County14,573Vance37.2%Trump Jr.20.4%
Highlands County13,242Vance36.9%Trump Jr.28.8%
Monroe County10,980Vance30.8%Rubio30.3%
Putnam County9,449Vance37.0%Trump Jr.34.0%
Columbia County8,756Vance37.0%Trump Jr.33.6%
Levy County6,619Vance37.7%Trump Jr.32.3%
Suwannee County6,229Vance37.2%Trump Jr.34.5%
Jackson County5,324Trump Jr.36.2%Vance35.8%
Wakulla County5,153Vance37.5%Trump Jr.27.9%
Okeechobee County4,493Vance36.4%Trump Jr.33.2%
Baker County4,473Vance37.0%Trump Jr.35.3%
Bradford County3,729Vance36.6%Trump Jr.35.8%
Washington County3,558Trump Jr.38.2%Vance36.1%
Hendry County3,501Trump Jr.35.9%Vance29.8%
Gilchrist County3,282Vance38.0%Trump Jr.33.6%
Gadsden County3,215Trump Jr.32.5%Vance29.9%
DeSoto County3,198Trump Jr.35.4%Vance35.3%
Holmes County2,918Trump Jr.38.6%Vance36.7%
Taylor County2,709Vance36.7%Trump Jr.35.9%
Dixie County2,455Trump Jr.38.2%Vance36.8%
Gulf County2,331Vance38.1%Trump Jr.30.9%
Hardee County2,324Trump Jr.35.9%Vance34.4%
Madison County1,912Trump Jr.37.8%Vance34.0%
Calhoun County1,861Trump Jr.37.3%Vance36.6%
Jefferson County1,794Vance35.8%Trump Jr.31.4%
Franklin County1,775Vance38.5%Trump Jr.25.6%
Union County1,746Trump Jr.40.1%Vance35.2%
Glades County1,401Trump Jr.37.3%Vance35.1%
Hamilton County1,289Trump Jr.38.8%Vance34.2%
Lafayette County1,104Trump Jr.41.9%Vance34.2%
Liberty County1,007Vance37.2%Trump Jr.34.8%