2028 forecast · Ohio · Republican primary
Ohio Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 87% of runs
46.0%Vance's projected share
1,909,569Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 46.0% | 878,047 | 87% | 47.9% |
| Rubio | 21.4% | 407,927 | 9% | 13.4% |
| Trump Jr. | 15.1% | 288,805 | 4% | 8.6% |
| DeSantis | 4.3% | 83,151 | <1% | 4.1% |
| Haley | 2.6% | 49,416 | <1% | 2.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 28,617 | <1% | 3.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Ohio votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in OhioBlack 2.2%, Hispanic 1.4%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 8.6%, 65 and up 34.2%, college graduates 37.9%, women 45%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,988,960 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,909,569 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin County | 165,292 | Rubio | 41.1% | Vance | 33.0% |
| Cuyahoga County | 152,671 | Vance | 38.2% | Rubio | 34.2% |
| Hamilton County | 116,331 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 35.4% |
| Summit County | 83,513 | Vance | 41.0% | Rubio | 32.3% |
| Montgomery County | 76,141 | Vance | 45.4% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Stark County | 63,291 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 16.7% |
| Butler County | 63,229 | Vance | 49.7% | Rubio | 17.4% |
| Lucas County | 56,105 | Vance | 42.6% | Rubio | 29.0% |
| Lorain County | 51,925 | Vance | 48.0% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Warren County | 50,675 | Vance | 47.8% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Delaware County | 44,596 | Rubio | 39.2% | Vance | 35.4% |
| Lake County | 43,704 | Vance | 48.9% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Clermont County | 42,478 | Vance | 51.3% | Rubio | 16.3% |
| Medina County | 38,551 | Vance | 48.5% | Rubio | 22.0% |
| Mahoning County | 35,948 | Vance | 49.9% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Licking County | 34,051 | Vance | 51.1% | Trump Jr. | 16.1% |
| Trumbull County | 32,300 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.6% |
| Greene County | 30,807 | Vance | 46.7% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Fairfield County | 29,159 | Vance | 50.9% | Trump Jr. | 16.6% |
| Portage County | 28,247 | Vance | 48.4% | Rubio | 21.0% |
| Wood County | 22,849 | Vance | 44.9% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Miami County | 22,742 | Vance | 52.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Clark County | 21,992 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Richland County | 21,380 | Vance | 51.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Wayne County | 19,937 | Vance | 52.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Geauga County | 19,691 | Vance | 47.6% | Rubio | 23.9% |
| Columbiana County | 18,757 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 25.7% |
| Allen County | 17,019 | Vance | 51.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.9% |
| Tuscarawas County | 16,493 | Vance | 52.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.0% |
| Ashtabula County | 15,442 | Vance | 51.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Muskingum County | 14,944 | Vance | 52.3% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Hancock County | 14,215 | Vance | 52.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.2% |
| Union County | 13,527 | Vance | 48.3% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Erie County | 13,201 | Vance | 51.2% | Trump Jr. | 16.9% |
| Knox County | 12,324 | Vance | 52.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Ross County | 12,174 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.3% |
| Scioto County | 12,074 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Belmont County | 11,939 | Vance | 52.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Washington County | 11,864 | Vance | 52.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Jefferson County | 11,766 | Vance | 52.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.4% |
| Darke County | 11,477 | Vance | 50.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Pickaway County | 11,404 | Vance | 52.2% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Auglaize County | 10,850 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Sandusky County | 10,758 | Vance | 51.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Shelby County | 10,684 | Vance | 51.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Lawrence County | 10,561 | Vance | 52.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Ashland County | 10,504 | Vance | 52.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Huron County | 10,457 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Marion County | 10,136 | Vance | 50.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Mercer County | 10,125 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Logan County | 9,483 | Vance | 51.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Seneca County | 9,392 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Brown County | 8,964 | Vance | 50.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Preble County | 8,943 | Vance | 51.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Putnam County | 8,640 | Vance | 52.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Fulton County | 8,636 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Ottawa County | 8,540 | Vance | 52.0% | Trump Jr. | 17.0% |
| Highland County | 8,399 | Vance | 50.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Clinton County | 8,350 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Athens County | 8,158 | Vance | 43.9% | Rubio | 27.5% |
| Crawford County | 8,090 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Champaign County | 8,089 | Vance | 51.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Madison County | 7,838 | Vance | 52.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Morrow County | 7,691 | Vance | 52.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Defiance County | 7,207 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Williams County | 7,135 | Vance | 50.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Guernsey County | 6,978 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.7% |
| Perry County | 6,877 | Vance | 51.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Coshocton County | 6,500 | Vance | 51.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Van Wert County | 6,051 | Vance | 50.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Jackson County | 5,859 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Henry County | 5,823 | Vance | 51.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Carroll County | 5,579 | Vance | 51.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Holmes County | 5,331 | Vance | 49.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Gallia County | 5,329 | Vance | 52.0% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Adams County | 5,305 | Vance | 50.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Hocking County | 5,201 | Vance | 51.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Hardin County | 5,157 | Vance | 51.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Fayette County | 5,042 | Vance | 50.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Pike County | 4,887 | Vance | 51.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Wyandot County | 4,539 | Vance | 52.2% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Meigs County | 4,239 | Vance | 50.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Paulding County | 3,781 | Vance | 50.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Harrison County | 2,853 | Vance | 50.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Monroe County | 2,796 | Vance | 49.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Morgan County | 2,677 | Vance | 50.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Noble County | 2,549 | Vance | 49.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Vinton County | 2,361 | Vance | 50.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
RubioFavorite, wins 48% of runs
32.5%Rubio's projected share
1,909,569Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 32.5% | 621,271 | 48% | 26.4% |
| Trump Jr. | 31.7% | 605,641 | 47% | 19.4% |
| DeSantis | 12.7% | 241,802 | 3% | 8.8% |
| Haley | 7.0% | 134,625 | <1% | 4.4% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.7% | 108,004 | 1% | 7.8% |
| Cruz | 0.5% | 8,676 | <1% | 2.0% |
| Carlson | 0.3% | 6,347 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 6,039 | <1% | 2.8% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Ohio votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in OhioBlack 2.2%, Hispanic 1.4%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 8.6%, 65 and up 34.2%, college graduates 37.9%, women 45%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,988,960 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,909,569 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin County | 165,292 | Rubio | 53.9% | Haley | 12.4% |
| Cuyahoga County | 152,671 | Rubio | 48.4% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |
| Hamilton County | 116,331 | Rubio | 49.6% | Trump Jr. | 12.9% |
| Summit County | 83,513 | Rubio | 48.3% | Trump Jr. | 15.0% |
| Montgomery County | 76,141 | Rubio | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Stark County | 63,291 | Trump Jr. | 37.1% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Butler County | 63,229 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | Rubio | 29.4% |
| Lucas County | 56,105 | Rubio | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Lorain County | 51,925 | Rubio | 34.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Warren County | 50,675 | Rubio | 38.2% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Delaware County | 44,596 | Rubio | 53.4% | Haley | 12.9% |
| Lake County | 43,704 | Rubio | 34.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Clermont County | 42,478 | Trump Jr. | 34.5% | Rubio | 28.8% |
| Medina County | 38,551 | Rubio | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.5% |
| Mahoning County | 35,948 | Trump Jr. | 35.4% | Rubio | 27.7% |
| Licking County | 34,051 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Trumbull County | 32,300 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Greene County | 30,807 | Rubio | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Fairfield County | 29,159 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Rubio | 26.4% |
| Portage County | 28,247 | Rubio | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Wood County | 22,849 | Rubio | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Miami County | 22,742 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | Rubio | 18.0% |
| Clark County | 21,992 | Trump Jr. | 46.5% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Richland County | 21,380 | Trump Jr. | 53.2% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Wayne County | 19,937 | Trump Jr. | 46.3% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Geauga County | 19,691 | Rubio | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Columbiana County | 18,757 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Allen County | 17,019 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Tuscarawas County | 16,493 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Ashtabula County | 15,442 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | Rubio | 15.6% |
| Muskingum County | 14,944 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | Rubio | 14.7% |
| Hancock County | 14,215 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | Rubio | 22.8% |
| Union County | 13,527 | Rubio | 36.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Erie County | 13,201 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Knox County | 12,324 | Trump Jr. | 48.9% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Ross County | 12,174 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Scioto County | 12,074 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Belmont County | 11,939 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | Rubio | 15.1% |
| Washington County | 11,864 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | Rubio | 15.4% |
| Jefferson County | 11,766 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | Rubio | 15.8% |
| Darke County | 11,477 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 13.0% |
| Pickaway County | 11,404 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Auglaize County | 10,850 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Sandusky County | 10,758 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | Rubio | 16.2% |
| Shelby County | 10,684 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Lawrence County | 10,561 | Trump Jr. | 52.0% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Ashland County | 10,504 | Trump Jr. | 52.6% | Rubio | 14.3% |
| Huron County | 10,457 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Marion County | 10,136 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Mercer County | 10,125 | Trump Jr. | 58.6% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Logan County | 9,483 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Seneca County | 9,392 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | Rubio | 16.7% |
| Brown County | 8,964 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Preble County | 8,943 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Putnam County | 8,640 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Fulton County | 8,636 | Trump Jr. | 50.7% | Rubio | 15.8% |
| Ottawa County | 8,540 | Trump Jr. | 38.4% | Rubio | 25.3% |
| Highland County | 8,399 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 13.1% |
| Clinton County | 8,350 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Athens County | 8,158 | Rubio | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Crawford County | 8,090 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Champaign County | 8,089 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Madison County | 7,838 | Trump Jr. | 48.3% | Rubio | 17.1% |
| Morrow County | 7,691 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | Rubio | 14.6% |
| Defiance County | 7,207 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | Rubio | 14.6% |
| Williams County | 7,135 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 13.0% |
| Guernsey County | 6,978 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Perry County | 6,877 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Coshocton County | 6,500 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Van Wert County | 6,051 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Jackson County | 5,859 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Henry County | 5,823 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Carroll County | 5,579 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Holmes County | 5,331 | Trump Jr. | 65.0% | DeSantis | 11.9% |
| Gallia County | 5,329 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Adams County | 5,305 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 12.8% |
| Hocking County | 5,201 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Hardin County | 5,157 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Fayette County | 5,042 | Trump Jr. | 60.7% | DeSantis | 12.9% |
| Pike County | 4,887 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Wyandot County | 4,539 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Meigs County | 4,239 | Trump Jr. | 62.1% | DeSantis | 12.6% |
| Paulding County | 3,781 | Trump Jr. | 59.1% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Harrison County | 2,853 | Trump Jr. | 62.7% | DeSantis | 12.6% |
| Monroe County | 2,796 | Trump Jr. | 63.8% | DeSantis | 12.4% |
| Morgan County | 2,677 | Trump Jr. | 61.0% | DeSantis | 13.0% |
| Noble County | 2,549 | Trump Jr. | 63.8% | DeSantis | 13.1% |
| Vinton County | 2,361 | Trump Jr. | 61.4% | DeSantis | 12.8% |