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2028 forecast · Washington · Republican primary

Washington Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

RubioFavorite, wins 53% of runs
34.8%Rubio's projected share
700,813Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Rubio34.8%244,07453%25.8%
Vance32.8%229,52244%32.9%
Trump Jr.13.3%93,5762%8.0%
DeSantis4.4%31,018<1%4.6%
Haley3.9%27,232<1%4.7%
Kennedy Jr.1.7%11,693<1%4.2%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Washington votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Trump Jr.VanceRubio

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Washington
America First31%
Suburban professional20%
Populist working class16%
Republican leaning independents15%
Libertarian9%
Moderate independents4%

Black 1%, Hispanic 8.5%, Asian and other 6.4%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 32.1%, college graduates 41.6%, women 44.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 602,998 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 700,813 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
King County176,672Rubio55.0%Vance20.1%
Pierce County76,321Vance37.0%Rubio29.1%
Snohomish County72,812Vance36.9%Rubio30.7%
Spokane County56,142Vance36.2%Rubio33.3%
Clark County51,571Rubio36.0%Vance34.1%
Thurston County29,198Vance35.2%Rubio33.9%
Kitsap County27,948Vance35.3%Rubio34.2%
Whatcom County24,761Rubio38.2%Vance33.1%
Benton County21,255Vance39.0%Rubio22.0%
Yakima County18,302Vance34.7%Trump Jr.30.1%
Skagit County13,340Vance37.1%Rubio29.4%
Cowlitz County12,203Vance43.2%Trump Jr.28.0%
Lewis County9,874Vance43.4%Trump Jr.28.5%
Island County9,553Vance38.3%Rubio29.1%
Clallam County9,151Vance41.1%Rubio24.1%
Chelan County8,622Vance39.2%Rubio22.5%
Grant County8,327Vance37.2%Trump Jr.35.0%
Grays Harbor County7,320Vance43.3%Trump Jr.26.0%
Mason County7,091Vance42.8%Trump Jr.23.1%
Franklin County6,868Vance34.0%Trump Jr.33.8%
Stevens County6,354Vance43.9%Trump Jr.30.3%
Walla Walla County5,923Vance39.4%Trump Jr.21.3%
Kittitas County5,431Vance40.9%Rubio23.0%
Douglas County4,603Vance39.9%Trump Jr.29.2%
Jefferson County4,371Rubio45.7%Vance28.4%
Okanogan County4,081Vance43.0%Trump Jr.26.6%
Whitman County3,733Rubio35.6%Vance34.5%
Pacific County2,777Vance42.7%Trump Jr.20.7%
Klickitat County2,742Vance42.1%Rubio20.6%
Asotin County2,434Vance44.2%Trump Jr.24.2%
San Juan County2,312Rubio54.5%Vance21.1%
Pend Oreille County1,893Vance44.3%Trump Jr.29.8%
Lincoln County1,678Vance44.4%Trump Jr.29.8%
Skamania County1,482Vance42.4%Rubio20.0%
Adams County1,320Trump Jr.39.8%Vance33.2%
Ferry County835Vance42.2%Trump Jr.35.4%
Wahkiakum County629Vance44.1%Trump Jr.25.4%
Columbia County567Vance43.9%Trump Jr.29.0%
Garfield County317Vance45.1%Trump Jr.25.3%