2028 forecast · Arkansas · Republican primary
Arkansas Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 76% of runs
41.9%Vance's projected share
408,060Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 41.9% | 171,105 | 76% | 36.5% |
| Trump Jr. | 22.6% | 92,279 | 22% | 14.6% |
| Rubio | 16.6% | 67,882 | 2% | 11.0% |
| DeSantis | 6.0% | 24,689 | <1% | 5.5% |
| Haley | 2.1% | 8,456 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 6,028 | <1% | 3.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arkansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArkansasBlack 2.3%, Hispanic 2.8%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 36.4%, college graduates 34.9%, women 45.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 410,920 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 408,060 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton County | 44,385 | Vance | 39.1% | Rubio | 26.8% |
| Pulaski County | 40,966 | Vance | 34.1% | Rubio | 32.9% |
| Washington County | 31,631 | Rubio | 34.9% | Vance | 34.3% |
| Saline County | 20,866 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Faulkner County | 19,006 | Vance | 42.3% | Rubio | 21.0% |
| Sebastian County | 16,265 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Garland County | 15,070 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Craighead County | 13,127 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| White County | 12,339 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Lonoke County | 11,827 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Crawford County | 9,418 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Pope County | 9,387 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.9% |
| Baxter County | 8,192 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Boone County | 7,014 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Greene County | 6,363 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Miller County | 5,588 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Independence County | 5,584 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Cleburne County | 5,279 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Jefferson County | 4,952 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Union County | 4,904 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Hot Spring County | 4,604 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Carroll County | 4,068 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.3% |
| Crittenden County | 3,716 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Johnson County | 3,511 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Polk County | 3,492 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Grant County | 3,381 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Mississippi County | 3,360 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Logan County | 3,328 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Marion County | 3,133 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Conway County | 3,060 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Van Buren County | 3,058 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Sharp County | 3,002 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Madison County | 2,875 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Poinsett County | 2,837 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Franklin County | 2,807 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Randolph County | 2,675 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Yell County | 2,631 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Columbia County | 2,500 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Ouachita County | 2,472 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Ashley County | 2,446 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Izard County | 2,413 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Stone County | 2,405 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Clark County | 2,400 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Lawrence County | 2,322 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Cross County | 2,309 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Drew County | 2,095 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Fulton County | 2,036 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Hempstead County | 2,008 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Clay County | 2,004 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.0% |
| Arkansas County | 1,908 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Sevier County | 1,892 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 36.4% |
| Pike County | 1,842 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Perry County | 1,813 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Little River County | 1,786 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Jackson County | 1,730 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Searcy County | 1,628 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Howard County | 1,551 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Newton County | 1,530 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Montgomery County | 1,508 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| St. Francis County | 1,479 | Vance | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Scott County | 1,436 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Cleveland County | 1,355 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Prairie County | 1,281 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Lincoln County | 1,161 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.5% |
| Phillips County | 1,077 | Vance | 37.4% | Trump Jr. | 35.6% |
| Bradley County | 1,050 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Nevada County | 949 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.3% |
| Desha County | 910 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Chicot County | 846 | Vance | 39.3% | Trump Jr. | 32.5% |
| Calhoun County | 781 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Woodruff County | 744 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Lafayette County | 724 | Vance | 39.7% | Trump Jr. | 38.2% |
| Monroe County | 685 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.8% |
| Dallas County | 668 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 37.0% |
| Lee County | 615 | Vance | 38.2% | Trump Jr. | 37.5% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 89% of runs
40.8%Trump Jr.'s projected share
408,060Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 40.8% | 166,348 | 89% | 24.7% |
| Rubio | 22.8% | 92,815 | 7% | 18.1% |
| DeSantis | 14.8% | 60,417 | 3% | 9.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.3% | 21,587 | <1% | 5.6% |
| Haley | 5.0% | 20,310 | <1% | 1.7% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 3,824 | <1% | 1.2% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 2,449 | <1% | 3.6% |
| Carlson | 0.5% | 1,822 | 1% | 4.5% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 1,222 | <1% | 2.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arkansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArkansasBlack 2.3%, Hispanic 2.8%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 36.4%, college graduates 34.9%, women 45.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 410,920 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 408,060 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton County | 44,385 | Rubio | 37.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.2% |
| Pulaski County | 40,966 | Rubio | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.2% |
| Washington County | 31,631 | Rubio | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 16.6% |
| Saline County | 20,866 | Trump Jr. | 35.2% | Rubio | 26.4% |
| Faulkner County | 19,006 | Trump Jr. | 30.3% | Rubio | 29.9% |
| Sebastian County | 16,265 | Trump Jr. | 40.0% | Rubio | 22.5% |
| Garland County | 15,070 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 23.5% |
| Craighead County | 13,127 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | Rubio | 23.9% |
| White County | 12,339 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Lonoke County | 11,827 | Trump Jr. | 48.0% | Rubio | 15.7% |
| Crawford County | 9,418 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Pope County | 9,387 | Trump Jr. | 45.1% | Rubio | 17.9% |
| Baxter County | 8,192 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Boone County | 7,014 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Greene County | 6,363 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Miller County | 5,588 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Independence County | 5,584 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Cleburne County | 5,279 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Jefferson County | 4,952 | Trump Jr. | 46.3% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Union County | 4,904 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Hot Spring County | 4,604 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Carroll County | 4,068 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | Rubio | 17.6% |
| Crittenden County | 3,716 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Johnson County | 3,511 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Polk County | 3,492 | Trump Jr. | 59.0% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Grant County | 3,381 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Mississippi County | 3,360 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Logan County | 3,328 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Marion County | 3,133 | Trump Jr. | 59.0% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Conway County | 3,060 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Van Buren County | 3,058 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Sharp County | 3,002 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Madison County | 2,875 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Poinsett County | 2,837 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Franklin County | 2,807 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Randolph County | 2,675 | Trump Jr. | 60.3% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Yell County | 2,631 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Columbia County | 2,500 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Ouachita County | 2,472 | Trump Jr. | 55.8% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Ashley County | 2,446 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Izard County | 2,413 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Stone County | 2,405 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Clark County | 2,400 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | Rubio | 20.4% |
| Lawrence County | 2,322 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Cross County | 2,309 | Trump Jr. | 56.5% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Drew County | 2,095 | Trump Jr. | 45.8% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Fulton County | 2,036 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Hempstead County | 2,008 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Clay County | 2,004 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Arkansas County | 1,908 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Sevier County | 1,892 | Trump Jr. | 61.4% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Pike County | 1,842 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Perry County | 1,813 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Little River County | 1,786 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Jackson County | 1,730 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Searcy County | 1,628 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Howard County | 1,551 | Trump Jr. | 57.2% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Newton County | 1,530 | Trump Jr. | 59.1% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Montgomery County | 1,508 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| St. Francis County | 1,479 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Scott County | 1,436 | Trump Jr. | 62.4% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Cleveland County | 1,355 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Prairie County | 1,281 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Lincoln County | 1,161 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Phillips County | 1,077 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Bradley County | 1,050 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Nevada County | 949 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Desha County | 910 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Chicot County | 846 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Calhoun County | 781 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Woodruff County | 744 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Lafayette County | 724 | Trump Jr. | 63.9% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Monroe County | 685 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Dallas County | 668 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Lee County | 615 | Trump Jr. | 60.5% | DeSantis | 15.0% |