Trump approval, the story so far.

The change is the move in the average over the two weeks after each event. Polls move for many reasons at once, so a move after an event is not proof the event caused it.

1. PolicyJan 20, 2025Trump inaugurated for second term+12.4 then +8.0 −4.4
2. PolicyFeb 13, 2025Mass firings of probationary federal workers+5.4 then +6.1 +0.7
3. EconomyApr 2, 2025Liberation Day tariffs announced+0.1 then −3.4 −3.5
4. EconomyApr 9, 202590 day pause on most tariffs−2.5 then −3.7 −1.2
5. UnrestJun 7, 2025National Guard federalized for Los Angeles+2.2 then +3.0 +0.8
6. MilitaryJun 21, 2025US strikes Iranian nuclear sites+3.0 then −0.8 −3.8
7. PolicyJul 4, 2025One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed−0.7 then −1.3 −0.6
8. ScandalJul 7, 2025Justice Department memo on Epstein files−1.1 then −2.9 −1.8
9. PolicyAug 11, 2025Federal takeover of the DC police−3.5 then −1.5 +2.0
10. MilitarySep 2, 2025First US strike on a Venezuelan boat−1.8 then −3.6 −1.8
11. OtherSep 10, 2025Charlie Kirk shot and killed−2.7 then −1.5 +1.2
12. PolicyOct 1, 2025Federal government shutdown begins−3.8 then −3.5 +0.3
13. ElectionNov 4, 2025Democrats win the 2025 marquee races−8.1 then −10.5 −2.4
14. PolicyNov 12, 2025Record 43 day shutdown ends−9.7 then −9.3 +0.4
15. ScandalNov 19, 2025Epstein Files Transparency Act signed−10.7 then −8.5 +2.2
16. MilitaryJan 3, 2026US strikes Venezuela and captures Maduro−3.7 then −9.4 −5.7
17. UnrestJan 7, 2026ICE agent kills Renee Good in Minneapolis−3.8 then −9.2 −5.4
18. UnrestJan 24, 2026Federal agents kill Alex Pretti−8.0 then −6.0 +2.0
19. PolicyFeb 14, 2026Homeland Security shutdown begins−8.2 then −14.0 −5.8
20. EconomyFeb 20, 2026Supreme Court strikes down emergency tariffs−9.1 then −13.1 −4.0
21. PolicyFeb 24, 2026Trump delivers the State of the Union−11.2 then −13.4 −2.2
22. MilitaryFeb 28, 2026US and Israel launch war on Iran−14.0 then −13.1 +0.9
23. UnrestMar 28, 2026Third nationwide No Kings protests−12.8 then −13.3 −0.5
24. EconomyMar 31, 2026Gas tops $4 a gallon nationally−13.0 then −13.6 −0.6
25. MilitaryApr 7, 2026Two week ceasefire with Iran−13.6 then −14.9 −1.3
26. MilitaryApr 13, 2026US naval blockade of Iran begins−13.5 then −14.5 −1.0
27. PolicyApr 30, 2026Record 76 day DHS shutdown ends−15.4 then −15.8 −0.4
28. MilitaryJun 17, 2026Preliminary US and Iran deal signed−14.7 then −12.3 +2.4
29. PolicyJun 30, 2026Court strikes down birthright order−12.4 then −11.1 +1.3
30. MilitaryJul 13, 2026Iran blockade reinstated−11.3 then −14.4 −3.1
31. EconomyJul 20, 202650 percent tariffs on Canadian goods−14.1 then −17.0 −2.9
32. MilitarySep 1, 2026US launches new strikes on Iran−16.1 then −19.9 −3.8

The line is the On Point Politics polling average, updated October 20, 2026, from every public poll weighted by recency, sample, voter screen and pollster grade. Open the full average with every poll.