2028 forecast · Oklahoma · Republican primary
Oklahoma Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 76% of runs
40.5%Vance's projected share
459,840Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 40.5% | 186,066 | 76% | 36.5% |
| Rubio | 20.8% | 95,698 | 9% | 15.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 19.7% | 90,733 | 15% | 13.1% |
| DeSantis | 6.0% | 27,657 | 1% | 5.9% |
| Haley | 2.3% | 10,757 | <1% | 1.4% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.4% | 6,581 | <1% | 3.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Oklahoma votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.VanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in OklahomaBlack 1.3%, Hispanic 3.6%, Asian and other 3.7%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 34.3%, college graduates 40.2%, women 45%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 459,922 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 459,840 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma County | 72,799 | Rubio | 41.0% | Vance | 30.6% |
| Tulsa County | 69,037 | Rubio | 36.4% | Vance | 34.2% |
| Cleveland County | 32,631 | Vance | 37.3% | Rubio | 31.4% |
| Canadian County | 22,271 | Vance | 42.8% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Rogers County | 15,055 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Wagoner County | 12,024 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Creek County | 10,115 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Comanche County | 9,038 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Pottawatomie County | 8,877 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Grady County | 8,633 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.7% |
| Payne County | 8,218 | Vance | 39.7% | Rubio | 26.6% |
| Logan County | 7,718 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| McClain County | 7,272 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.0% |
| Washington County | 7,202 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.8% |
| Garfield County | 7,112 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Muskogee County | 6,710 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Stephens County | 6,382 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Le Flore County | 6,307 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Carter County | 6,129 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Osage County | 5,858 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Bryan County | 5,815 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Delaware County | 5,802 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Pittsburg County | 5,668 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Mayes County | 5,469 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Kay County | 5,312 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.3% |
| Lincoln County | 5,245 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Sequoyah County | 4,988 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.8% |
| Cherokee County | 4,755 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Pontotoc County | 4,620 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Okmulgee County | 4,120 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Garvin County | 3,779 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| McCurtain County | 3,741 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Ottawa County | 3,479 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Custer County | 3,305 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 19.6% |
| Caddo County | 2,852 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Jackson County | 2,688 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Beckham County | 2,678 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Woodward County | 2,658 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| McIntosh County | 2,586 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Kingfisher County | 2,449 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Seminole County | 2,447 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.0% |
| Pawnee County | 2,256 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Marshall County | 2,235 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Adair County | 2,148 | Trump Jr. | 40.0% | Vance | 39.5% |
| Murray County | 1,956 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Atoka County | 1,941 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Texas County | 1,911 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Craig County | 1,894 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Choctaw County | 1,790 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 36.3% |
| Washita County | 1,720 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Haskell County | 1,692 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.8% |
| Pushmataha County | 1,635 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Noble County | 1,627 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Nowata County | 1,509 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Hughes County | 1,490 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Love County | 1,475 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Johnston County | 1,418 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Major County | 1,325 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Latimer County | 1,317 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 37.8% |
| Blaine County | 1,274 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Woods County | 1,232 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.8% |
| Okfuskee County | 1,221 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Kiowa County | 1,085 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Cotton County | 869 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Coal County | 865 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Jefferson County | 853 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Tillman County | 848 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Beaver County | 843 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Dewey County | 831 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Alfalfa County | 796 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Grant County | 756 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Ellis County | 675 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Roger Mills County | 653 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Greer County | 625 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Harper County | 564 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.7% |
| Cimarron County | 371 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Harmon County | 296 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 68% of runs
35.4%Trump Jr.'s projected share
459,840Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 35.4% | 162,776 | 68% | 22.6% |
| Rubio | 28.1% | 129,171 | 26% | 23.9% |
| DeSantis | 14.6% | 66,982 | 5% | 10.0% |
| Haley | 5.6% | 25,572 | <1% | 2.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.1% | 23,572 | <1% | 5.3% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 3,808 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 2,671 | <1% | 3.9% |
| Carlson | 0.4% | 1,831 | <1% | 4.2% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 1,512 | <1% | 2.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Oklahoma votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in OklahomaBlack 1.3%, Hispanic 3.6%, Asian and other 3.7%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 34.3%, college graduates 40.2%, women 45%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 459,922 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 459,840 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma County | 72,799 | Rubio | 51.9% | Trump Jr. | 11.5% |
| Tulsa County | 69,037 | Rubio | 48.5% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Cleveland County | 32,631 | Rubio | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 18.1% |
| Canadian County | 22,271 | Rubio | 31.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Rogers County | 15,055 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Wagoner County | 12,024 | Trump Jr. | 39.8% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Creek County | 10,115 | Trump Jr. | 53.2% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Comanche County | 9,038 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Pottawatomie County | 8,877 | Trump Jr. | 49.2% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Grady County | 8,633 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Payne County | 8,218 | Rubio | 36.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Logan County | 7,718 | Trump Jr. | 37.4% | Rubio | 23.4% |
| McClain County | 7,272 | Trump Jr. | 43.9% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Washington County | 7,202 | Trump Jr. | 42.1% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Garfield County | 7,112 | Trump Jr. | 44.8% | Rubio | 17.6% |
| Muskogee County | 6,710 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Stephens County | 6,382 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Le Flore County | 6,307 | Trump Jr. | 59.1% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Carter County | 6,129 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Osage County | 5,858 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Bryan County | 5,815 | Trump Jr. | 48.3% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Delaware County | 5,802 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Pittsburg County | 5,668 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Mayes County | 5,469 | Trump Jr. | 58.6% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Kay County | 5,312 | Trump Jr. | 50.2% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Lincoln County | 5,245 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Sequoyah County | 4,988 | Trump Jr. | 61.0% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Cherokee County | 4,755 | Trump Jr. | 45.9% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Pontotoc County | 4,620 | Trump Jr. | 42.7% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Okmulgee County | 4,120 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Garvin County | 3,779 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| McCurtain County | 3,741 | Trump Jr. | 61.5% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Ottawa County | 3,479 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Custer County | 3,305 | Trump Jr. | 35.9% | Rubio | 24.4% |
| Caddo County | 2,852 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Jackson County | 2,688 | Trump Jr. | 44.5% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Beckham County | 2,678 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Woodward County | 2,658 | Trump Jr. | 53.2% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| McIntosh County | 2,586 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Kingfisher County | 2,449 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Seminole County | 2,447 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Pawnee County | 2,256 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Marshall County | 2,235 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Adair County | 2,148 | Trump Jr. | 66.8% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Murray County | 1,956 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Atoka County | 1,941 | Trump Jr. | 60.9% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Texas County | 1,911 | Trump Jr. | 49.5% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Craig County | 1,894 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Choctaw County | 1,790 | Trump Jr. | 63.6% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Washita County | 1,720 | Trump Jr. | 55.8% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Haskell County | 1,692 | Trump Jr. | 61.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Pushmataha County | 1,635 | Trump Jr. | 63.2% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Noble County | 1,627 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Nowata County | 1,509 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Hughes County | 1,490 | Trump Jr. | 60.5% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Love County | 1,475 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Johnston County | 1,418 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Major County | 1,325 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Latimer County | 1,317 | Trump Jr. | 65.7% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Blaine County | 1,274 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Woods County | 1,232 | Trump Jr. | 41.8% | Rubio | 19.1% |
| Okfuskee County | 1,221 | Trump Jr. | 60.5% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Kiowa County | 1,085 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Cotton County | 869 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Coal County | 865 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Jefferson County | 853 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Tillman County | 848 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Beaver County | 843 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Dewey County | 831 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Alfalfa County | 796 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Grant County | 756 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Ellis County | 675 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Roger Mills County | 653 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Greer County | 625 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Harper County | 564 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Cimarron County | 371 | Trump Jr. | 48.0% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Harmon County | 296 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 15.4% |