2028 forecast · Georgia · Republican primary

Georgia Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 61% of runs
35.7%Vance's projected share
1,341,335Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance35.7%479,00161%32.3%
Trump Jr.22.6%302,71729%13.6%
Rubio22.4%300,2029%14.2%
DeSantis6.0%79,9881%5.8%
Haley2.7%35,998<1%1.9%
Kennedy Jr.1.6%21,080<1%3.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Georgia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Trump Jr.VanceRubio

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Georgia
America First38%
Suburban professional18%
Populist working class16%
Republican leaning independents11%
Libertarian10%
Moderate independents3%

Black 8.4%, Hispanic 4.9%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 31.8%, college graduates 42.8%, women 45.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,295,964 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,341,335 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Fulton County109,324Rubio50.4%Vance21.0%
Cobb County97,502Rubio45.7%Vance25.5%
Gwinnett County93,988Rubio33.4%Vance30.6%
DeKalb County65,303Rubio43.4%Vance24.1%
Cherokee County53,094Vance40.0%Rubio24.4%
Forsyth County43,225Vance36.9%Rubio31.0%
Hall County33,749Vance41.0%Trump Jr.24.8%
Chatham County32,057Vance36.1%Rubio25.5%
Paulding County26,790Vance40.6%Trump Jr.24.5%
Coweta County25,931Vance41.2%Trump Jr.21.0%
Columbia County24,600Vance40.5%Rubio20.2%
Henry County24,471Vance34.8%Trump Jr.28.1%
Houston County20,600Vance39.8%Trump Jr.24.2%
Bartow County19,181Vance42.8%Trump Jr.29.6%
Fayette County19,145Vance36.0%Rubio28.7%
Carroll County18,587Vance42.1%Trump Jr.28.1%
Walton County18,178Vance42.4%Trump Jr.29.6%
Muscogee County16,466Vance36.5%Trump Jr.24.9%
Jackson County16,212Vance43.3%Trump Jr.28.5%
Richmond County15,230Vance35.2%Trump Jr.29.8%
Floyd County14,149Vance42.9%Trump Jr.25.8%
Clayton County13,720Trump Jr.36.8%Vance26.0%
Barrow County13,652Vance41.4%Trump Jr.29.0%
Douglas County13,622Vance34.4%Trump Jr.26.2%
Bibb County13,554Vance36.6%Trump Jr.29.4%
Whitfield County13,504Vance40.6%Trump Jr.27.7%
Glynn County12,406Vance42.1%Trump Jr.23.3%
Catoosa County12,296Vance44.8%Trump Jr.26.1%
Clarke County12,239Rubio44.2%Vance26.3%
Newton County12,235Vance36.6%Trump Jr.29.9%
Lowndes County12,182Vance39.8%Trump Jr.27.3%
Effingham County11,726Vance43.0%Trump Jr.26.6%
Walker County11,359Vance44.7%Trump Jr.28.7%
Gordon County10,023Vance42.2%Trump Jr.33.3%
Bulloch County9,187Vance41.1%Trump Jr.25.4%
Oconee County9,007Vance37.6%Rubio31.0%
Habersham County8,459Vance43.3%Trump Jr.31.1%
Spalding County8,407Vance40.0%Trump Jr.32.5%
Troup County8,196Vance40.3%Trump Jr.32.9%
Camden County7,862Vance42.2%Trump Jr.29.3%
Pickens County7,755Vance45.0%Trump Jr.27.1%
Bryan County7,613Vance41.1%Trump Jr.20.0%
Rockdale County7,601Vance32.5%Trump Jr.27.7%
Dawson County7,240Vance44.7%Trump Jr.24.7%
Harris County7,141Vance43.4%Trump Jr.24.4%
Gilmer County6,767Vance44.4%Trump Jr.30.2%
Murray County6,684Vance41.7%Trump Jr.35.3%
Polk County6,570Vance40.8%Trump Jr.36.2%
Union County6,464Vance45.1%Trump Jr.30.2%
Lumpkin County6,367Vance43.9%Trump Jr.25.6%
Laurens County6,253Vance39.5%Trump Jr.36.5%
White County6,242Vance44.2%Trump Jr.31.8%
Haralson County6,156Vance42.0%Trump Jr.35.7%
Fannin County5,894Vance44.8%Trump Jr.31.6%
Thomas County5,790Vance40.5%Trump Jr.33.2%
Madison County5,654Vance42.8%Trump Jr.32.3%
Monroe County5,497Vance42.7%Trump Jr.30.3%
Dougherty County5,347Trump Jr.35.1%Vance32.2%
Lee County5,300Vance42.5%Trump Jr.28.2%
Colquitt County5,206Vance39.4%Trump Jr.37.1%
Tift County4,771Vance40.0%Trump Jr.34.3%
Liberty County4,724Vance35.9%Trump Jr.31.3%
Coffee County4,670Vance38.9%Trump Jr.38.1%
Hart County4,661Vance42.1%Trump Jr.34.8%
Pike County4,633Vance42.4%Trump Jr.34.4%
Jones County4,632Vance40.9%Trump Jr.34.6%
Stephens County4,536Vance41.4%Trump Jr.36.9%
Wayne County4,487Vance40.6%Trump Jr.37.1%
Franklin County4,456Vance41.6%Trump Jr.36.8%
Baldwin County4,374Vance39.1%Trump Jr.31.2%
Ware County4,187Vance39.2%Trump Jr.38.4%
Banks County4,099Vance42.4%Trump Jr.35.7%
Morgan County4,095Vance42.8%Trump Jr.29.6%
Upson County3,991Vance40.4%Trump Jr.36.5%
Putnam County3,909Vance43.0%Trump Jr.29.2%
Butts County3,886Vance39.8%Trump Jr.37.0%
Chattooga County3,740Vance40.9%Trump Jr.37.8%
Rabun County3,699Vance45.5%Trump Jr.26.5%
Pierce County3,691Vance42.1%Trump Jr.36.0%
Greene County3,539Vance42.7%Trump Jr.26.1%
Toombs County3,363Vance40.3%Trump Jr.36.5%
Brantley County3,357Vance41.0%Trump Jr.37.8%
Peach County3,194Vance38.6%Trump Jr.30.8%
Towns County3,171Vance45.7%Trump Jr.28.4%
Lamar County3,115Vance40.4%Trump Jr.35.7%
Grady County3,094Vance39.8%Trump Jr.36.4%
Jasper County3,029Vance41.4%Trump Jr.35.0%
Dade County3,011Vance43.3%Trump Jr.33.2%
Meriwether County3,002Trump Jr.38.5%Vance38.3%
Decatur County2,908Trump Jr.38.3%Vance37.9%
Berrien County2,904Vance41.3%Trump Jr.37.0%
Elbert County2,834Vance40.3%Trump Jr.37.0%
Worth County2,825Trump Jr.39.8%Vance38.9%
Appling County2,774Trump Jr.40.6%Vance38.6%
Oglethorpe County2,765Vance42.9%Trump Jr.29.7%
Emanuel County2,738Trump Jr.39.5%Vance38.5%
McDuffie County2,688Vance38.8%Trump Jr.37.0%
Tattnall County2,615Vance39.0%Trump Jr.38.7%
Sumter County2,597Vance37.4%Trump Jr.35.0%
Burke County2,580Vance37.6%Trump Jr.37.2%
Dodge County2,523Vance40.1%Trump Jr.37.5%
Heard County2,277Vance41.4%Trump Jr.36.6%
Cook County2,200Vance40.1%Trump Jr.36.7%
Jeff Davis County2,093Vance39.9%Trump Jr.38.9%
Mitchell County2,088Trump Jr.39.4%Vance36.9%
Crisp County2,069Vance38.6%Trump Jr.38.0%
Washington County2,021Trump Jr.38.4%Vance36.5%
Crawford County1,982Vance40.2%Trump Jr.37.3%
McIntosh County1,981Vance41.0%Trump Jr.33.5%
Long County1,960Vance38.9%Trump Jr.36.5%
Bleckley County1,922Vance41.2%Trump Jr.35.5%
Brooks County1,908Vance39.1%Trump Jr.37.3%
Screven County1,742Trump Jr.38.7%Vance38.4%
Bacon County1,736Trump Jr.41.5%Vance38.4%
Ben Hill County1,720Trump Jr.39.6%Vance38.1%
Jefferson County1,570Trump Jr.40.4%Vance35.5%
Lincoln County1,453Vance39.7%Trump Jr.38.1%
Charlton County1,420Trump Jr.40.9%Vance37.8%
Candler County1,388Vance39.4%Trump Jr.38.2%
Irwin County1,371Vance40.1%Trump Jr.37.7%
Pulaski County1,251Vance39.6%Trump Jr.38.2%
Montgomery County1,248Vance40.4%Trump Jr.36.1%
Wilkes County1,243Trump Jr.38.2%Vance38.1%
Evans County1,231Vance38.9%Trump Jr.38.3%
Wilkinson County1,212Trump Jr.39.2%Vance37.8%
Lanier County1,146Vance41.0%Trump Jr.34.5%
Telfair County1,140Trump Jr.42.3%Vance36.0%
Johnson County1,138Trump Jr.42.0%Vance37.4%
Seminole County1,128Trump Jr.39.2%Vance39.1%
Early County1,079Trump Jr.40.2%Vance36.4%
Twiggs County1,067Trump Jr.40.4%Vance37.1%
Taylor County1,041Vance39.0%Trump Jr.38.0%
Turner County998Trump Jr.40.9%Vance37.4%
Atkinson County997Trump Jr.40.8%Vance37.2%
Marion County994Vance39.9%Trump Jr.35.5%
Wilcox County974Trump Jr.39.2%Vance39.0%
Dooly County934Trump Jr.39.2%Vance36.6%
Clinch County899Trump Jr.40.4%Vance38.5%
Jenkins County893Trump Jr.40.5%Vance37.5%
Treutlen County885Trump Jr.40.6%Vance38.1%
Terrell County869Trump Jr.40.9%Vance34.6%
Macon County864Trump Jr.41.7%Vance33.8%
Schley County840Vance42.9%Trump Jr.33.4%
Miller County831Vance41.2%Trump Jr.35.9%
Hancock County681Trump Jr.42.4%Vance32.1%
Talbot County661Trump Jr.40.7%Vance35.1%
Glascock County652Vance41.1%Trump Jr.38.1%
Wheeler County614Trump Jr.42.8%Vance36.1%
Echols County535Trump Jr.40.1%Vance38.0%
Warren County523Trump Jr.41.3%Vance35.2%
Randolph County512Trump Jr.43.2%Vance31.9%
Chattahoochee County433Vance37.0%Trump Jr.26.7%
Calhoun County388Trump Jr.40.6%Vance34.1%
Baker County366Vance38.6%Trump Jr.37.8%
Stewart County339Trump Jr.42.4%Vance31.1%
Webster County295Trump Jr.44.2%Vance33.8%
Clay County286Vance37.1%Trump Jr.36.2%
Quitman County255Trump Jr.42.2%Vance36.0%
Taliaferro County166Trump Jr.41.8%Vance34.5%