Explore the forecast
Brazil in more than 5,500 municipalities
The national forecast of 51.0% for Flávio and 49.0% for Lula, carried down state by state and town by town from each municipality's first round vote. Pick a state to zoom in, and open its page for the full table.
Every state
Most Flávio to most Lula| State | Rating | Flávio | Lula | Margin | Flávio's chance | Valid votes | 1st round | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roraima | Safe Flávio | 74.6 | 25.4 | Flávio +49.2 | 100% | 322,159 | 75.7 | 76.1 |
| Rondônia | Safe Flávio | 71.9 | 28.2 | Flávio +43.7 | 100% | 957,704 | 72.3 | 70.7 |
| Santa Catarina | Safe Flávio | 70.2 | 29.8 | Flávio +40.4 | 100% | 4,437,079 | 72.7 | 69.3 |
| Acre | Safe Flávio | 68.7 | 31.3 | Flávio +37.3 | 100% | 464,395 | 69.2 | 70.3 |
| Mato Grosso | Safe Flávio | 66.4 | 33.6 | Flávio +32.9 | 100% | 1,974,421 | 69.1 | 65.1 |
| Paraná | Safe Flávio | 63.9 | 36.1 | Flávio +27.7 | 100% | 6,493,810 | 65.8 | 62.4 |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | Safe Flávio | 60.6 | 39.5 | Flávio +21.1 | 100% | 1,473,675 | 62.8 | 59.5 |
| Goiás | Safe Flávio | 60.5 | 39.5 | Flávio +21.1 | 100% | 3,766,947 | 63.3 | 58.7 |
| Rio Grande do Sul | Safe Flávio | 59.4 | 40.6 | Flávio +18.7 | 100% | 6,336,091 | 60.9 | 56.4 |
| Espírito Santo | Safe Flávio | 58.6 | 41.4 | Flávio +17.1 | 100% | 2,223,739 | 59.2 | 58.0 |
| São Paulo | Safe Flávio | 56.5 | 43.6 | Flávio +12.9 | 99% | 24,489,094 | 57.6 | 55.2 |
| Rio de Janeiro | Likely Flávio | 55.7 | 44.3 | Flávio +11.4 | 98% | 9,255,975 | 57.4 | 56.5 |
| Tocantins | Likely Flávio | 54.1 | 45.9 | Flávio +8.2 | 91% | 922,145 | 53.7 | 48.6 |
| Distrito Federal | Likely Flávio | 54.0 | 46.0 | Flávio +8.1 | 94% | 1,745,889 | 57.4 | 58.8 |
| Minas Gerais | Lean Flávio | 52.6 | 47.4 | Flávio +5.3 | 85% | 11,830,848 | 52.7 | 49.8 |
| Amapá | Tilt Flávio | 50.7 | 49.3 | Flávio +1.4 | 60% | 458,978 | 50.0 | 51.4 |
| Amazonas | Lean Lula | 48.7 | 51.3 | Lula +2.6 | 30% | 2,149,996 | 48.3 | 48.9 |
| Pará | Lean Lula | 48.6 | 51.4 | Lula +2.9 | 28% | 4,817,868 | 47.1 | 45.3 |
| Alagoas | Likely Lula | 44.5 | 55.5 | Lula +10.9 | 2% | 1,803,851 | 42.5 | 41.3 |
| Rio Grande do Norte | Safe Lula | 38.5 | 61.5 | Lula +23.0 | 0% | 2,053,077 | 36.8 | 34.9 |
| Paraíba | Safe Lula | 36.9 | 63.1 | Lula +26.2 | 0% | 2,490,928 | 35.0 | 33.4 |
| Sergipe | Safe Lula | 36.2 | 63.8 | Lula +27.7 | 0% | 1,351,142 | 32.8 | 32.8 |
| Pernambuco | Safe Lula | 35.3 | 64.7 | Lula +29.5 | 0% | 5,551,653 | 32.8 | 33.1 |
| Maranhão | Safe Lula | 34.6 | 65.4 | Lula +30.8 | 0% | 3,975,919 | 32.6 | 28.9 |
| Ceará | Safe Lula | 34.4 | 65.6 | Lula +31.3 | 0% | 5,563,489 | 33.1 | 30.0 |
| Bahia | Safe Lula | 32.5 | 67.5 | Lula +34.9 | 0% | 8,488,932 | 30.1 | 27.9 |
| Piauí | Safe Lula | 27.9 | 72.2 | Lula +44.3 | 0% | 2,128,356 | 25.3 | 23.1 |
First round: Flávio's share of the votes for him and Lula. 2022: Jair Bolsonaro's share in the runoff against Lula.