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2028 forecast · Oregon · Republican primary

Oregon Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 54% of runs
51.6%Vance's projected share
412,342Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance51.6%212,64654%32.6%
Rubio32.5%134,07740%26.4%
Trump Jr.5.9%24,3305%7.9%
DeSantis0.9%3,8011%4.3%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Oregon votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Oregon
America First40%
Suburban professional24%
Populist working class20%
Libertarian11%
Republican leaning independents3%

Black 0.4%, Hispanic 4.4%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 31.5%, college graduates 44.2%, women 44.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 393,920 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 412,342 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Multnomah County67,149Vance42.8%Rubio42.5%
Washington County50,522Vance46.9%Rubio37.9%
Clackamas County44,674Vance50.5%Rubio33.8%
Lane County36,954Vance50.5%Rubio33.9%
Marion County30,109Vance54.0%Rubio29.6%
Deschutes County23,409Vance48.8%Rubio35.8%
Jackson County23,287Vance55.5%Rubio28.1%
Linn County14,881Vance58.9%Rubio24.1%
Douglas County13,364Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Yamhill County11,283Vance55.2%Rubio28.3%
Josephine County10,263Vance60.1%Rubio22.7%
Polk County9,107Vance54.9%Rubio28.7%
Benton County8,557Vance44.9%Rubio40.1%
Klamath County7,922Vance60.3%Rubio22.4%
Coos County7,128Vance59.2%Rubio23.8%
Umatilla County6,900Vance59.8%Rubio22.9%
Columbia County6,271Vance58.4%Rubio24.7%
Lincoln County5,295Vance54.9%Rubio28.8%
Clatsop County4,253Vance54.6%Rubio29.2%
Crook County3,790Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Union County3,199Vance59.8%Rubio23.1%
Tillamook County3,097Vance56.9%Rubio26.5%
Curry County2,775Vance59.6%Rubio23.3%
Wasco County2,578Vance57.1%Rubio26.2%
Malheur County2,496Vance60.5%Rubio21.9%
Jefferson County2,435Vance60.0%Rubio22.7%
Baker County2,234Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Hood River County2,227Vance47.5%Rubio37.1%
Morrow County1,129Vance61.0%Rubio21.2%
Wallowa County1,127Vance58.1%Rubio25.2%
Grant County1,095Vance62.0%Rubio20.4%
Lake County1,060Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Harney County1,038Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Sherman County278Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Gilliam County258Vance61.1%Rubio21.5%
Wheeler County198Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%