2028 forecast · District of Columbia · Republican primary
District of Columbia Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 53.8% | 2,655 | 65% | 30.9% |
| Rubio | 29.5% | 1,457 | 24% | 16.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 6.7% | 330 | 9% | 12.3% |
| DeSantis | 1.0% | 48 | 1% | 9.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before District of Columbia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in District of ColumbiaBlack 10%, Hispanic 24.1%, Asian and other 18%, under 30 14.8%, 65 and up 29.8%, college graduates 36%, women 43.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,839 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 4,941 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11001 County | 4,941 | Vance | 53.8% | Rubio | 29.5% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 54.3% | 2,680 | 52% | 24.3% |
| Trump Jr. | 30.7% | 1,516 | 41% | 18.6% |
| DeSantis | 5.6% | 278 | 7% | 13.7% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | 14 | <1% | 8.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before District of Columbia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in District of ColumbiaBlack 10%, Hispanic 24.1%, Asian and other 18%, under 30 14.8%, 65 and up 29.8%, college graduates 36%, women 43.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,839 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 4,941 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11001 County | 4,941 | Rubio | 54.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |