2028 forecast · North Carolina · Republican primary
North Carolina Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 69% of runs
36.6%Vance's projected share
1,270,652Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 36.6% | 465,287 | 69% | 33.1% |
| Rubio | 25.4% | 323,429 | 22% | 17.4% |
| Trump Jr. | 16.6% | 210,568 | 8% | 10.3% |
| DeSantis | 6.2% | 78,482 | 1% | 6.3% |
| Haley | 4.2% | 53,751 | <1% | 4.7% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 21,696 | <1% | 3.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North CarolinaBlack 4.7%, Hispanic 3.8%, Asian and other 2.2%, under 30 8.5%, 65 and up 34%, college graduates 45.5%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,149,530 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,270,652 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | 134,946 | Rubio | 51.7% | Vance | 19.8% |
| Mecklenburg County | 108,627 | Rubio | 46.8% | Vance | 23.2% |
| Guilford County | 53,867 | Rubio | 33.4% | Vance | 33.1% |
| Forsyth County | 42,090 | Rubio | 35.5% | Vance | 32.6% |
| Buncombe County | 36,057 | Rubio | 45.1% | Vance | 27.1% |
| Union County | 34,869 | Vance | 40.6% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| New Hanover County | 32,051 | Rubio | 35.0% | Vance | 34.2% |
| Durham County | 32,033 | Rubio | 53.8% | Vance | 17.4% |
| Johnston County | 29,824 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 18.8% |
| Gaston County | 28,703 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Iredell County | 28,444 | Vance | 44.0% | Rubio | 18.6% |
| Brunswick County | 27,005 | Vance | 45.4% | Rubio | 17.7% |
| Cabarrus County | 26,891 | Vance | 40.2% | Rubio | 23.5% |
| Cumberland County | 25,279 | Vance | 39.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Davidson County | 25,227 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Catawba County | 22,811 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Randolph County | 21,845 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Onslow County | 20,147 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.8% |
| Alamance County | 19,939 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 18.5% |
| Rowan County | 18,977 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Orange County | 18,132 | Rubio | 54.8% | Vance | 16.9% |
| Henderson County | 17,298 | Vance | 41.0% | Rubio | 26.1% |
| Pitt County | 17,149 | Vance | 39.6% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Moore County | 15,525 | Vance | 44.5% | Rubio | 18.5% |
| Lincoln County | 15,374 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 20.3% |
| Harnett County | 14,921 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Craven County | 12,857 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.3% |
| Cleveland County | 12,754 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Carteret County | 12,460 | Vance | 47.2% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Caldwell County | 12,336 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Burke County | 12,203 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Rockingham County | 12,201 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Chatham County | 11,631 | Rubio | 34.5% | Vance | 34.5% |
| Wayne County | 11,593 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Surry County | 10,729 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Wilkes County | 10,606 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Pender County | 9,992 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Stanly County | 9,958 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Nash County | 9,944 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Haywood County | 9,728 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 17.6% |
| Franklin County | 9,508 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Rutherford County | 9,435 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Robeson County | 8,596 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | Vance | 35.9% |
| Stokes County | 7,974 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Watauga County | 7,798 | Rubio | 39.0% | Vance | 30.8% |
| Wilson County | 7,628 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Davie County | 7,383 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.4% |
| Lee County | 6,973 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Granville County | 6,808 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| McDowell County | 6,593 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Sampson County | 6,436 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Dare County | 6,411 | Vance | 41.7% | Rubio | 25.6% |
| Beaufort County | 6,285 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Yadkin County | 6,105 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Alexander County | 5,980 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Columbus County | 5,974 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Macon County | 5,834 | Vance | 47.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Lenoir County | 5,293 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Duplin County | 5,274 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Jackson County | 5,244 | Vance | 43.7% | Rubio | 20.9% |
| Cherokee County | 5,145 | Vance | 47.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Transylvania County | 5,078 | Vance | 43.1% | Rubio | 23.7% |
| Currituck County | 5,034 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Person County | 5,015 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Ashe County | 4,490 | Vance | 48.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Richmond County | 4,295 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Hoke County | 4,172 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Pasquotank County | 4,097 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Edgecombe County | 3,823 | Vance | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Halifax County | 3,808 | Vance | 37.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Bladen County | 3,519 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Madison County | 3,492 | Vance | 45.1% | Rubio | 19.0% |
| Vance County | 3,415 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Polk County | 3,309 | Vance | 46.5% | Rubio | 17.0% |
| Montgomery County | 3,270 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Yancey County | 2,989 | Vance | 47.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Scotland County | 2,717 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Avery County | 2,685 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Caswell County | 2,633 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Mitchell County | 2,568 | Vance | 47.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Martin County | 2,303 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Clay County | 2,165 | Vance | 48.7% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Anson County | 1,946 | Trump Jr. | 37.8% | Vance | 37.5% |
| Pamlico County | 1,936 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Perquimans County | 1,861 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.0% |
| Alleghany County | 1,837 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Greene County | 1,745 | Vance | 39.4% | Trump Jr. | 35.3% |
| Camden County | 1,724 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Swain County | 1,659 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.3% |
| Chowan County | 1,638 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Warren County | 1,613 | Vance | 39.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Northampton County | 1,465 | Vance | 38.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Hertford County | 1,458 | Vance | 36.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.5% |
| Graham County | 1,410 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Bertie County | 1,386 | Trump Jr. | 36.1% | Vance | 35.9% |
| Gates County | 1,257 | Vance | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Jones County | 1,213 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Washington County | 1,030 | Vance | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 34.9% |
| Hyde County | 536 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Tyrrell County | 361 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.9% |
RubioFavorite, wins 50% of runs
30.5%Rubio's projected share
1,270,652Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 30.5% | 388,081 | 50% | 25.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 28.5% | 361,827 | 42% | 17.6% |
| DeSantis | 14.3% | 181,756 | 6% | 10.4% |
| Haley | 9.6% | 122,510 | 1% | 6.4% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.8% | 73,435 | 1% | 6.0% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 1.0% | 12,204 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Cruz | 0.5% | 6,527 | <1% | 3.7% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 4,435 | <1% | 2.9% |
| Carlson | 0.3% | 4,143 | <1% | 3.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North CarolinaBlack 4.7%, Hispanic 3.8%, Asian and other 2.2%, under 30 8.5%, 65 and up 34%, college graduates 45.5%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,149,530 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,270,652 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | 134,946 | Rubio | 53.7% | Haley | 20.2% |
| Mecklenburg County | 108,627 | Rubio | 50.8% | Haley | 17.0% |
| Guilford County | 53,867 | Rubio | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 14.9% |
| Forsyth County | 42,090 | Rubio | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 13.3% |
| Buncombe County | 36,057 | Rubio | 52.7% | Haley | 16.6% |
| Union County | 34,869 | Rubio | 33.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.5% |
| New Hanover County | 32,051 | Rubio | 44.6% | Haley | 13.1% |
| Durham County | 32,033 | Rubio | 53.8% | Haley | 21.1% |
| Johnston County | 29,824 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 24.9% |
| Gaston County | 28,703 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Iredell County | 28,444 | Trump Jr. | 30.7% | Rubio | 26.9% |
| Brunswick County | 27,005 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Cabarrus County | 26,891 | Rubio | 32.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Cumberland County | 25,279 | Trump Jr. | 36.9% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Davidson County | 25,227 | Trump Jr. | 46.8% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Catawba County | 22,811 | Trump Jr. | 39.6% | Rubio | 19.9% |
| Randolph County | 21,845 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Onslow County | 20,147 | Trump Jr. | 38.6% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Alamance County | 19,939 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Rubio | 25.4% |
| Rowan County | 18,977 | Trump Jr. | 43.4% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Orange County | 18,132 | Rubio | 54.1% | Haley | 22.8% |
| Henderson County | 17,298 | Rubio | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.9% |
| Pitt County | 17,149 | Trump Jr. | 28.5% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Moore County | 15,525 | Trump Jr. | 29.8% | Rubio | 27.1% |
| Lincoln County | 15,374 | Trump Jr. | 38.6% | Rubio | 20.8% |
| Harnett County | 14,921 | Trump Jr. | 44.3% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Craven County | 12,857 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Cleveland County | 12,754 | Trump Jr. | 49.8% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Carteret County | 12,460 | Trump Jr. | 38.5% | Rubio | 20.3% |
| Caldwell County | 12,336 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Burke County | 12,203 | Trump Jr. | 45.3% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Rockingham County | 12,201 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Chatham County | 11,631 | Rubio | 44.5% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Wayne County | 11,593 | Trump Jr. | 46.1% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Surry County | 10,729 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Wilkes County | 10,606 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Pender County | 9,992 | Trump Jr. | 39.2% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Stanly County | 9,958 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Nash County | 9,944 | Trump Jr. | 50.0% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Haywood County | 9,728 | Trump Jr. | 33.8% | Rubio | 25.1% |
| Franklin County | 9,508 | Trump Jr. | 36.8% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Rutherford County | 9,435 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Robeson County | 8,596 | Trump Jr. | 64.2% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Stokes County | 7,974 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Watauga County | 7,798 | Rubio | 46.4% | Haley | 15.2% |
| Wilson County | 7,628 | Trump Jr. | 48.4% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Davie County | 7,383 | Trump Jr. | 41.1% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Lee County | 6,973 | Trump Jr. | 43.7% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Granville County | 6,808 | Trump Jr. | 44.2% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| McDowell County | 6,593 | Trump Jr. | 53.0% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Sampson County | 6,436 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Dare County | 6,411 | Rubio | 36.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Beaufort County | 6,285 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Yadkin County | 6,105 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Alexander County | 5,980 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Columbus County | 5,974 | Trump Jr. | 59.6% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Macon County | 5,834 | Trump Jr. | 42.5% | Rubio | 17.9% |
| Lenoir County | 5,293 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Duplin County | 5,274 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Jackson County | 5,244 | Rubio | 30.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Cherokee County | 5,145 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Transylvania County | 5,078 | Rubio | 34.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Currituck County | 5,034 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Person County | 5,015 | Trump Jr. | 51.2% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Ashe County | 4,490 | Trump Jr. | 45.2% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Richmond County | 4,295 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Hoke County | 4,172 | Trump Jr. | 42.5% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Pasquotank County | 4,097 | Trump Jr. | 43.5% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Edgecombe County | 3,823 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Halifax County | 3,808 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 18.2% |
| Bladen County | 3,519 | Trump Jr. | 55.5% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Madison County | 3,492 | Trump Jr. | 29.8% | Rubio | 28.4% |
| Vance County | 3,415 | Trump Jr. | 52.8% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Polk County | 3,309 | Trump Jr. | 32.0% | Rubio | 26.1% |
| Montgomery County | 3,270 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Yancey County | 2,989 | Trump Jr. | 42.5% | Rubio | 18.1% |
| Scotland County | 2,717 | Trump Jr. | 56.5% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Avery County | 2,685 | Trump Jr. | 48.3% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Caswell County | 2,633 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Mitchell County | 2,568 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Martin County | 2,303 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Clay County | 2,165 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | DeSantis | 17.8% |
| Anson County | 1,946 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Pamlico County | 1,936 | Trump Jr. | 48.9% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Perquimans County | 1,861 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Alleghany County | 1,837 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Greene County | 1,745 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Camden County | 1,724 | Trump Jr. | 46.2% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Swain County | 1,659 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Chowan County | 1,638 | Trump Jr. | 50.0% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Warren County | 1,613 | Trump Jr. | 53.1% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Northampton County | 1,465 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Hertford County | 1,458 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Graham County | 1,410 | Trump Jr. | 59.0% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Bertie County | 1,386 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Gates County | 1,257 | Trump Jr. | 59.6% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Jones County | 1,213 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Washington County | 1,030 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Hyde County | 536 | Trump Jr. | 55.8% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Tyrrell County | 361 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 16.2% |