2028 forecast · Idaho · Republican primary
Idaho Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 40.4% | 29,084 | 78% | 36.8% |
| Rubio | 21.6% | 15,550 | 9% | 15.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 18.8% | 13,508 | 12% | 12.5% |
| DeSantis | 5.8% | 4,164 | <1% | 5.7% |
| Haley | 2.6% | 1,903 | <1% | 1.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 1,101 | <1% | 3.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Idaho votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IdahoBlack 0.1%, Hispanic 4.2%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 9.2%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 38.2%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 222,004 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 71,927 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada County | 19,002 | Rubio | 44.8% | Vance | 29.0% |
| Canyon County | 8,309 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Kootenai County | 8,049 | Vance | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Bonneville County | 4,628 | Vance | 44.3% | Rubio | 19.2% |
| Twin Falls County | 3,094 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Bannock County | 2,934 | Vance | 44.2% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Bonner County | 2,411 | Vance | 47.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Bingham County | 1,813 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Nez Perce County | 1,563 | Vance | 47.2% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Jefferson County | 1,529 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Madison County | 1,463 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Latah County | 1,404 | Vance | 36.8% | Rubio | 32.2% |
| Payette County | 1,057 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Gem County | 966 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Cassia County | 903 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Idaho County | 902 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Elmore County | 860 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Blaine County | 826 | Rubio | 50.1% | Vance | 24.9% |
| Minidoka County | 731 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Franklin County | 710 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Jerome County | 692 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Fremont County | 639 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Boundary County | 635 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Gooding County | 530 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Valley County | 525 | Vance | 43.7% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Shoshone County | 502 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Washington County | 492 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Teton County | 469 | Rubio | 47.0% | Vance | 27.2% |
| Owyhee County | 459 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Benewah County | 449 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Boise County | 417 | Vance | 47.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Lemhi County | 413 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Clearwater County | 392 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Caribou County | 329 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Bear Lake County | 326 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Power County | 248 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Oneida County | 240 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Adams County | 226 | Vance | 47.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Custer County | 224 | Vance | 48.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Lincoln County | 169 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Lewis County | 162 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Butte County | 142 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Camas County | 61 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Clark County | 32 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 34.1% | 24,563 | 65% | 22.1% |
| Rubio | 28.7% | 20,626 | 30% | 24.1% |
| DeSantis | 14.2% | 10,237 | 4% | 9.9% |
| Haley | 6.3% | 4,507 | <1% | 2.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | 3,943 | <1% | 5.8% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 555 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 396 | <1% | 3.8% |
| Carlson | 0.4% | 273 | <1% | 3.9% |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 260 | <1% | 3.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Idaho votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IdahoBlack 0.1%, Hispanic 4.2%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 9.2%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 38.2%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 222,004 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 71,927 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada County | 19,002 | Rubio | 55.7% | Haley | 11.6% |
| Canyon County | 8,309 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| Kootenai County | 8,049 | Trump Jr. | 45.0% | Rubio | 17.0% |
| Bonneville County | 4,628 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 28.6% |
| Twin Falls County | 3,094 | Trump Jr. | 46.6% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Bannock County | 2,934 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 28.7% |
| Bonner County | 2,411 | Trump Jr. | 45.2% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Bingham County | 1,813 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Nez Perce County | 1,563 | Trump Jr. | 42.0% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Jefferson County | 1,529 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Madison County | 1,463 | Trump Jr. | 34.6% | Rubio | 22.2% |
| Latah County | 1,404 | Rubio | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 16.0% |
| Payette County | 1,057 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Gem County | 966 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Cassia County | 903 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Idaho County | 902 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Elmore County | 860 | Trump Jr. | 48.9% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Blaine County | 826 | Rubio | 59.3% | Haley | 12.7% |
| Minidoka County | 731 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Franklin County | 710 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Jerome County | 692 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Fremont County | 639 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Boundary County | 635 | Trump Jr. | 57.2% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Gooding County | 530 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Valley County | 525 | Rubio | 37.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Shoshone County | 502 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Washington County | 492 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Teton County | 469 | Rubio | 57.2% | Haley | 12.1% |
| Owyhee County | 459 | Trump Jr. | 60.9% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Benewah County | 449 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Boise County | 417 | Trump Jr. | 47.1% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Lemhi County | 413 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Clearwater County | 392 | Trump Jr. | 59.4% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Caribou County | 329 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Bear Lake County | 326 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Power County | 248 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Oneida County | 240 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Adams County | 226 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Custer County | 224 | Trump Jr. | 49.2% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Lincoln County | 169 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Lewis County | 162 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Butte County | 142 | Trump Jr. | 60.2% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Camas County | 61 | Trump Jr. | 44.9% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Clark County | 32 | Trump Jr. | 52.6% | DeSantis | 16.8% |