2028 forecast · Nevada · Republican primary
Nevada Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 31.0% | 25,914 | 62% | 31.6% |
| Rubio | 25.3% | 21,104 | 37% | 26.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 9.9% | 8,314 | 1% | 9.7% |
| DeSantis | 6.2% | 5,149 | <1% | 5.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.0% | 3,349 | <1% | 3.9% |
| Haley | 1.7% | 1,455 | <1% | 1.7% |
| Cruz | 1.6% | 1,335 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Carlson | 1.6% | 1,328 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Rand Paul | 1.5% | 1,225 | <1% | 1.4% |
| MassieHYP | 1.1% | 950 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 0.9% | 754 | <1% | 0.9% |
| KempHYP | 0.8% | 648 | <1% | 0.7% |
| DonaldsHYP | 0.7% | 621 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.7% | 621 | <1% | 0.7% |
| GreeneHYP | 0.7% | 585 | <1% | 0.7% |
| NoemHYP | 0.5% | 395 | <1% | 0.5% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.5% | 375 | <1% | 0.4% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.4% | 371 | <1% | 0.4% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.4% | 342 | <1% | 0.4% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.4% | 336 | <1% | 0.4% |
| BannonHYP | 0.4% | 336 | <1% | 0.4% |
| CottonHYP | 0.4% | 316 | <1% | 0.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nevada votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in NevadaBlack 2.5%, Hispanic 13.7%, Asian and other 5%, under 30 8.7%, 65 and up 32.2%, college graduates 37.3%, women 44.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 75,482 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 83,596 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | 54,840 | Vance | 30.7% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Washoe County | 15,486 | Rubio | 37.9% | Vance | 27.1% |
| Douglas County | 2,395 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Lyon County | 2,381 | Vance | 36.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.3% |
| Carson City | 1,907 | Vance | 36.6% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Nye County | 1,851 | Vance | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Elko County | 1,726 | Vance | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Churchill County | 976 | Vance | 36.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Humboldt County | 621 | Vance | 36.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.2% |
| White Pine County | 325 | Vance | 33.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Lander County | 219 | Vance | 35.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Storey County | 215 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 14.9% |
| Lincoln County | 206 | Vance | 37.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.3% |
| Pershing County | 171 | Vance | 30.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Mineral County | 145 | Vance | 31.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Eureka County | 92 | Vance | 34.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Esmeralda County | 40 | Vance | 34.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.8% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 37.3% | 31,170 | 93% | 39.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 15.4% | 12,891 | 6% | 15.2% |
| DeSantis | 9.5% | 7,904 | 1% | 9.0% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.1% | 5,125 | <1% | 5.9% |
| Haley | 2.6% | 2,194 | <1% | 2.5% |
| Carlson | 2.5% | 2,100 | <1% | 2.4% |
| Cruz | 2.5% | 2,078 | <1% | 2.4% |
| Rand Paul | 2.3% | 1,877 | <1% | 2.1% |
| MassieHYP | 1.8% | 1,474 | <1% | 1.7% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 1.4% | 1,175 | <1% | 1.3% |
| KempHYP | 1.2% | 992 | <1% | 1.1% |
| DonaldsHYP | 1.2% | 968 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 1.1% | 956 | <1% | 1.1% |
| GreeneHYP | 1.1% | 937 | <1% | 1.1% |
| NoemHYP | 0.7% | 617 | <1% | 0.7% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.7% | 581 | <1% | 0.7% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.7% | 586 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BannonHYP | 0.7% | 539 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.6% | 532 | <1% | 0.6% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.6% | 512 | <1% | 0.6% |
| CottonHYP | 0.6% | 492 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Youngkin | 0.4% | 359 | <1% | 0.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nevada votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in NevadaBlack 2.5%, Hispanic 13.7%, Asian and other 5%, under 30 8.7%, 65 and up 32.2%, college graduates 37.3%, women 44.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 75,482 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 83,596 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | 54,840 | Rubio | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 13.7% |
| Washoe County | 15,486 | Rubio | 53.3% | DeSantis | 7.0% |
| Douglas County | 2,395 | Trump Jr. | 25.7% | Rubio | 20.2% |
| Lyon County | 2,381 | Trump Jr. | 36.6% | Rubio | 8.7% |
| Carson City | 1,907 | Rubio | 30.0% | Trump Jr. | 19.6% |
| Nye County | 1,851 | Trump Jr. | 39.9% | Carlson | 7.8% |
| Elko County | 1,726 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | DeSantis | 8.5% |
| Churchill County | 976 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | DeSantis | 8.1% |
| Humboldt County | 621 | Trump Jr. | 36.1% | Rubio | 9.2% |
| White Pine County | 325 | Trump Jr. | 42.0% | Carlson | 8.8% |
| Lander County | 219 | Trump Jr. | 39.2% | DeSantis | 7.9% |
| Storey County | 215 | Trump Jr. | 26.2% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Lincoln County | 206 | Trump Jr. | 40.6% | Carlson | 8.2% |
| Pershing County | 171 | Trump Jr. | 44.1% | Carlson | 9.3% |
| Mineral County | 145 | Trump Jr. | 41.2% | Carlson | 8.7% |
| Eureka County | 92 | Trump Jr. | 43.4% | Carlson | 9.1% |
| Esmeralda County | 40 | Trump Jr. | 37.6% | DeSantis | 9.5% |