2028 forecast · Wisconsin · Republican primary

Wisconsin Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 67% of runs

53.7%Vance's projected share

1,076,087Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Vance	53.7%	577,738	67%	37.0%
Rubio	30.1%	324,186	25%	18.4%
Trump Jr.	6.2%	66,297	7%	8.2%
DeSantis	0.9%	10,037	1%	6.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Wisconsin votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Wisconsin

America First34%

Suburban professional20%

Populist working class16%

Republican leaning independents14%

Libertarian9%

Moderate independents3%

Black 1.1%, Hispanic 2.5%, Asian and other 1.6%, under 30 10%, 65 and up 31.2%, college graduates 40.5%, women 44.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,105,944 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,076,087 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Milwaukee County	116,194	Vance	49.1%	Rubio	35.2%
Dane County	101,819	Vance	43.1%	Rubio	42.2%
Waukesha County	92,914	Vance	52.0%	Rubio	32.1%
Brown County	47,791	Vance	53.6%	Rubio	30.3%
Outagamie County	36,455	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.7%
Racine County	33,376	Vance	55.2%	Rubio	28.3%
Washington County	32,855	Vance	56.3%	Rubio	27.2%
Winnebago County	30,288	Vance	53.9%	Rubio	30.0%
Kenosha County	28,743	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.7%
Rock County	27,113	Vance	54.0%	Rubio	29.8%
Marathon County	26,230	Vance	57.1%	Rubio	26.3%
Sheboygan County	22,201	Vance	56.1%	Rubio	27.4%
La Crosse County	22,076	Vance	51.5%	Rubio	32.8%
Ozaukee County	20,813	Vance	50.3%	Rubio	34.1%
St. Croix County	20,734	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.8%
Walworth County	20,621	Vance	56.0%	Rubio	27.5%
Fond du Lac County	20,200	Vance	58.6%	Rubio	24.5%
Eau Claire County	19,219	Vance	51.1%	Rubio	33.2%
Dodge County	17,688	Vance	59.2%	Rubio	23.8%
Jefferson County	16,814	Vance	56.2%	Rubio	27.3%
Manitowoc County	15,711	Vance	58.5%	Rubio	24.6%
Wood County	14,137	Vance	58.4%	Rubio	24.7%
Portage County	13,578	Vance	53.7%	Rubio	30.2%
Chippewa County	13,033	Vance	57.9%	Rubio	25.4%
Sauk County	11,948	Vance	55.7%	Rubio	27.9%
Columbia County	11,221	Vance	56.0%	Rubio	27.5%
Calumet County	11,175	Vance	54.9%	Rubio	28.8%
Waupaca County	10,803	Vance	59.3%	Rubio	23.6%
Polk County	9,922	Vance	58.9%	Rubio	24.2%
Barron County	9,296	Vance	59.0%	Rubio	24.1%
Oconto County	9,187	Vance	60.1%	Rubio	22.7%
Grant County	8,994	Vance	57.2%	Rubio	26.1%
Marinette County	8,759	Vance	60.0%	Rubio	22.9%
Pierce County	8,477	Vance	55.1%	Rubio	28.5%
Dunn County	8,445	Vance	56.2%	Rubio	27.4%
Oneida County	8,286	Vance	57.6%	Rubio	25.8%
Shawano County	8,266	Vance	60.2%	Rubio	22.6%
Monroe County	8,003	Vance	58.6%	Rubio	24.5%
Douglas County	7,836	Vance	54.8%	Rubio	29.0%
Green County	7,036	Vance	55.2%	Rubio	28.5%
Door County	6,546	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.8%
Lincoln County	5,923	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	23.9%
Clark County	5,541	Vance	60.4%	Rubio	22.2%
Trempealeau County	5,477	Vance	58.2%	Rubio	24.9%
Vernon County	5,379	Vance	56.8%	Rubio	26.6%
Vilas County	5,372	Vance	58.5%	Rubio	24.7%
Waushara County	5,062	Vance	60.2%	Rubio	22.5%
Juneau County	5,026	Vance	60.1%	Rubio	22.7%
Iowa County	4,587	Vance	54.5%	Rubio	29.3%
Kewaunee County	4,424	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	23.9%
Adams County	4,330	Vance	60.1%	Rubio	22.6%
Taylor County	4,225	Vance	60.6%	Rubio	22.1%
Langlade County	4,123	Vance	60.2%	Rubio	22.6%
Green Lake County	3,951	Vance	59.4%	Rubio	23.6%
Washburn County	3,792	Vance	58.9%	Rubio	24.1%
Burnett County	3,715	Vance	59.9%	Rubio	23.0%
Sawyer County	3,555	Vance	58.7%	Rubio	24.4%
Jackson County	3,461	Vance	59.5%	Rubio	23.4%
Bayfield County	3,359	Vance	54.9%	Rubio	28.9%
Marquette County	3,265	Vance	60.1%	Rubio	22.7%
Price County	3,095	Vance	60.2%	Rubio	22.7%
Richland County	3,042	Vance	58.4%	Rubio	24.8%
Lafayette County	2,987	Vance	58.1%	Rubio	25.1%
Crawford County	2,956	Vance	58.8%	Rubio	24.3%
Rusk County	2,950	Vance	60.4%	Rubio	22.3%
Buffalo County	2,828	Vance	59.2%	Rubio	23.9%
Ashland County	2,719	Vance	56.8%	Rubio	26.6%
Forest County	1,738	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	21.9%
Pepin County	1,512	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	24.0%
Iron County	1,388	Vance	59.2%	Rubio	23.9%
Florence County	1,202	Vance	60.3%	Rubio	22.6%
Menominee County	300	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	21.7%

RubioFavorite, wins 72% of runs

57.4%Rubio's projected share