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2028 forecast · Nebraska · Republican primary

Nebraska Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 71% of runs
55.3%Vance's projected share
211,466Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance55.3%116,88071%38.4%
Rubio28.3%59,82919%15.2%
Trump Jr.6.4%13,5819%11.7%
DeSantis0.9%1,9491%5.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nebraska votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Nebraska
America First44%
Populist working class21%
Suburban professional21%
Libertarian10%
Republican leaning independents2%

Black 0.8%, Hispanic 3.4%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 9.3%, 65 and up 32.8%, college graduates 42.3%, women 44.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 198,988 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 211,466 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Douglas County52,502Vance48.3%Rubio36.3%
Lancaster County31,333Vance51.3%Rubio33.0%
Sarpy County21,441Vance52.4%Rubio31.7%
Buffalo County5,765Vance58.6%Rubio24.6%
Hall County5,397Vance59.5%Rubio23.2%
Lincoln County4,249Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
Platte County4,169Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Madison County4,078Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Dodge County3,789Vance59.6%Rubio23.3%
Cass County3,748Vance58.6%Rubio24.5%
Scotts Bluff County3,737Vance60.1%Rubio22.6%
Adams County3,455Vance59.3%Rubio23.7%
Saunders County3,369Vance59.3%Rubio23.8%
Washington County3,077Vance58.2%Rubio25.0%
Gage County2,588Vance60.4%Rubio22.5%
Seward County2,264Vance59.1%Rubio24.0%
Dawson County2,102Vance60.9%Rubio21.5%
Otoe County1,944Vance59.6%Rubio23.3%
York County1,747Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Custer County1,673Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Holt County1,577Vance61.6%Rubio20.9%
Red Willow County1,486Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Hamilton County1,479Vance60.7%Rubio22.1%
Cedar County1,389Vance61.7%Rubio20.8%
Phelps County1,388Vance61.1%Rubio21.6%
Dakota County1,345Vance60.2%Rubio22.3%
Saline County1,322Vance59.0%Rubio23.9%
Box Butte County1,281Vance61.6%Rubio20.9%
Cheyenne County1,229Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Butler County1,216Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Merrick County1,190Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Cuming County1,188Vance61.1%Rubio21.6%
Knox County1,169Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Pierce County1,140Vance61.9%Rubio20.5%
Keith County1,137Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Antelope County1,003Vance62.2%Rubio20.2%
Wayne County997Vance59.4%Rubio23.6%
Richardson County985Vance61.3%Rubio21.3%
Howard County958Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Kearney County955Vance60.2%Rubio22.7%
Dawes County932Vance59.2%Rubio23.9%
Clay County904Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Colfax County901Vance60.8%Rubio21.5%
Burt County885Vance60.8%Rubio22.0%
Jefferson County883Vance61.2%Rubio21.5%
Cherry County879Vance62.0%Rubio20.4%
Stanton County851Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Boone County835Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Nemaha County822Vance60.0%Rubio23.0%
Fillmore County777Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Dixon County772Vance61.1%Rubio21.5%
Polk County765Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Thayer County760Vance61.6%Rubio21.0%
Sheridan County682Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Morrill County681Vance61.7%Rubio20.6%
Furnas County677Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Valley County623Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Nuckolls County608Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Chase County561Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Johnson County504Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Harlan County498Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Nance County489Vance61.6%Rubio20.9%
Webster County480Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Brown County472Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Kimball County470Vance62.2%Rubio20.1%
Franklin County448Vance62.0%Rubio20.4%
Sherman County444Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Hitchcock County424Vance62.2%Rubio20.1%
Perkins County406Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Frontier County399Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Thurston County379Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Pawnee County356Vance61.8%Rubio20.8%
Greeley County342Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Garden County312Vance62.0%Rubio20.3%
Boyd County311Vance62.3%Rubio20.0%
Gosper County307Vance61.2%Rubio21.5%
Garfield County295Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Deuel County287Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Dundy County274Vance62.2%Rubio20.2%
Rock County247Vance62.0%Rubio20.5%
Sioux County196Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Keya Paha County170Vance62.3%Rubio20.0%
Hayes County162Vance62.4%Rubio19.8%
Wheeler County144Vance61.8%Rubio20.8%
Logan County139Vance62.4%Rubio19.9%
Banner County121Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Hooker County119Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Grant County118Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Loup County117Vance61.3%Rubio21.3%
Thomas County111Vance62.0%Rubio20.4%
McPherson County92Vance62.0%Rubio20.3%
Arthur County90Vance61.7%Rubio20.9%
Blaine County84Vance62.2%Rubio20.2%