2028 forecast · Wyoming · President · 3 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Wyoming.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +29.4 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +22.5 and R +36.3. Projected votes: 93,937 Democratic, 172,179 Republican, 4,909 other, 271,025 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +29.42028 margin
R +47.02024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +47.0 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +29.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.4 toward D | 5.0% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.4 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +29.4 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 266,353 in 2024, 271,026 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Wyoming| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +27.3 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +27.6 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +28.2 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +28.2 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +28.4 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +28.5 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +28.5 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +28.7 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +28.8 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +29.0 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +29.2 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +29.3 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +29.4 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +29.7 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +29.7 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +29.7 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +29.8 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +29.8 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +29.8 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +29.9 | <1% |
| Harris | R +30.0 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +30.2 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +30.3 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +30.9 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +31.0 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +31.0 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +31.1 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +31.8 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +34.8 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Wyoming| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +26.8 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +27.2 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +27.4 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +27.4 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +27.6 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +27.6 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +27.8 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +27.9 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +28.0 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +28.0 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +28.5 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +29.2 | <1% |
| Vance | R +29.4 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
23 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laramie County | R +32.9 | R +16.5 | R +9 to R +24 | 18,013 | 25,150 | 44,005 | R +0.23 | D +0.26 |
| Natrona County | R +49.5 | R +32.0 | R +24 to R +40 | 11,273 | 21,866 | 33,794 | R +0.29 | D +0.15 |
| Albany County | R +3.2 | D +10.5 | D +19 to D +2 | 10,577 | 8,562 | 19,580 | Even | D +0.10 |
| Campbell County | R +77.7 | R +53.5 | R +46 to R +62 | 4,290 | 14,150 | 18,716 | R +0.12 | D +0.36 |
| Fremont County | R +38.1 | R +23.8 | R +16 to R +32 | 6,372 | 10,342 | 17,056 | R +0.23 | D +0.15 |
| Park County | R +60.1 | R +43.4 | R +36 to R +51 | 4,712 | 11,940 | 16,930 | R +0.33 | D +0.84 |
| Sheridan County | R +50.9 | R +33.9 | R +26 to R +42 | 5,490 | 11,120 | 16,914 | R +0.37 | D +0.96 |
| Sweetwater County | R +54.1 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 5,116 | 10,860 | 16,293 | R +0.19 | D +0.05 |
| Teton County | D +35.8 | D +58.1 | D +67 to D +50 | 10,061 | 2,668 | 12,958 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Lincoln County | R +69.3 | R +52.6 | R +45 to R +61 | 2,630 | 8,463 | 11,276 | R +0.24 | D +1.22 |
| Uinta County | R +64.7 | R +49.5 | R +41 to R +58 | 2,253 | 6,663 | 9,082 | R +0.23 | D +0.28 |
| Converse County | R +74.4 | R +53.8 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,514 | 5,047 | 6,656 | R +0.19 | D +0.16 |
| Goshen County | R +61.8 | R +47.2 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,594 | 4,441 | 6,133 | R +0.29 | D +0.30 |
| Carbon County | R +59.1 | R +45.0 | R +37 to R +53 | 1,648 | 4,344 | 6,104 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Big Horn County | R +73.5 | R +56.4 | R +48 to R +65 | 1,241 | 4,451 | 5,790 | R +0.22 | D +0.81 |
| Johnson County | R +64.6 | R +45.8 | R +38 to R +54 | 1,310 | 3,524 | 4,911 | R +0.34 | D +0.95 |
| Sublette County | R +61.9 | R +43.4 | R +36 to R +51 | 1,355 | 3,435 | 4,862 | R +0.32 | D +0.48 |
| Platte County | R +66.5 | R +51.3 | R +43 to R +60 | 1,091 | 3,394 | 4,563 | R +0.31 | D +0.22 |
| Crook County | R +79.1 | R +57.6 | R +49 to R +66 | 945 | 3,514 | 4,527 | R +0.20 | D +1.58 |
| Washakie County | R +65.3 | R +50.9 | R +43 to R +59 | 900 | 2,767 | 3,732 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Weston County | R +78.1 | R +59.8 | R +52 to R +68 | 679 | 2,701 | 3,429 | R +0.19 | D +0.16 |
| Hot Springs County | R +62.0 | R +47.4 | R +40 to R +55 | 659 | 1,846 | 2,547 | R +0.30 | D +0.15 |
| Niobrara County | R +81.6 | R +63.4 | R +55 to R +72 | 205 | 919 | 1,137 | R +0.20 | Even |