2028 forecast · Montana · Republican primary

Montana Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 72% of runs

56.9%Vance's projected share

162,366Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Vance	56.9%	92,408	72%	43.3%
Rubio	26.5%	43,086	18%	10.6%
Trump Jr.	6.6%	10,651	8%	12.2%
DeSantis	0.9%	1,458	1%	4.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Montana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Montana

America First34%

Populist working class18%

Suburban professional17%

Republican leaning independents15%

Libertarian9%

Moderate independents3%

Black 0.1%, Hispanic 1.6%, Asian and other 2.2%, under 30 10.1%, 65 and up 32.7%, college graduates 42.3%, women 44.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 156,888 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 162,366 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Yellowstone County	22,333	Vance	57.0%	Rubio	26.5%
Flathead County	17,872	Vance	58.3%	Rubio	25.0%
Gallatin County	17,659	Vance	49.9%	Rubio	34.7%
Missoula County	17,340	Vance	50.3%	Rubio	34.2%
Lewis and Clark County	10,853	Vance	54.2%	Rubio	29.7%
Cascade County	9,974	Vance	58.8%	Rubio	24.4%
Ravalli County	8,618	Vance	60.4%	Rubio	22.5%
Silver Bow County	4,505	Vance	56.1%	Rubio	27.6%
Lake County	4,247	Vance	59.9%	Rubio	23.1%
Lincoln County	3,576	Vance	61.9%	Rubio	20.6%
Park County	3,038	Vance	55.6%	Rubio	28.2%
Sanders County	2,452	Vance	61.9%	Rubio	20.6%
Jefferson County	2,377	Vance	59.3%	Rubio	23.8%
Carbon County	2,044	Vance	59.0%	Rubio	24.2%
Fergus County	2,026	Vance	61.2%	Rubio	21.4%
Madison County	1,897	Vance	60.5%	Rubio	22.4%
Stillwater County	1,896	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	22.0%
Custer County	1,742	Vance	60.6%	Rubio	22.2%
Richland County	1,739	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	20.9%
Hill County	1,723	Vance	60.0%	Rubio	22.9%
Beaverhead County	1,695	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	24.0%
Broadwater County	1,522	Vance	61.2%	Rubio	21.5%
Dawson County	1,445	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	21.0%
Deer Lodge County	1,215	Vance	58.2%	Rubio	25.1%
Valley County	1,209	Vance	61.4%	Rubio	21.3%
Teton County	1,045	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	22.0%
Musselshell County	1,005	Vance	62.1%	Rubio	20.3%
Powell County	995	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	20.9%
Rosebud County	957	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.6%
Glacier County	950	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	20.9%
Big Horn County	894	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.5%
Mineral County	840	Vance	61.1%	Rubio	21.6%
Roosevelt County	832	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	20.9%
Pondera County	804	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.1%
Chouteau County	785	Vance	61.0%	Rubio	21.7%
Sweet Grass County	723	Vance	61.4%	Rubio	21.3%
Phillips County	682	Vance	61.9%	Rubio	20.6%
Blaine County	671	Vance	61.0%	Rubio	21.7%
Granite County	630	Vance	60.4%	Rubio	22.5%
Toole County	620	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.1%
Sheridan County	555	Vance	60.7%	Rubio	22.1%
Fallon County	502	Vance	62.3%	Rubio	20.0%
Judith Basin County	427	Vance	60.9%	Rubio	21.9%
Powder River County	366	Vance	62.2%	Rubio	20.2%
McCone County	363	Vance	62.3%	Rubio	20.1%
Meagher County	357	Vance	61.0%	Rubio	21.8%
Wheatland County	337	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.8%
Daniels County	306	Vance	62.0%	Rubio	20.4%
Carter County	300	Vance	62.4%	Rubio	19.9%
Liberty County	299	Vance	61.2%	Rubio	21.5%
Garfield County	290	Vance	62.5%	Rubio	19.8%
Prairie County	210	Vance	62.1%	Rubio	20.4%
Wibaux County	187	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.6%
Golden Valley County	171	Vance	62.2%	Rubio	20.2%
Treasure County	153	Vance	60.6%	Rubio	22.2%
Petroleum County	113	Vance	61.7%	Rubio	20.9%

RubioFavorite, wins 48% of runs

53.8%Rubio's projected share