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2028 forecast · South Dakota · Republican primary

South Dakota Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 72% of runs
57.6%Vance's projected share
78,965Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance57.6%45,45672%43.0%
Rubio25.7%20,28018%10.6%
Trump Jr.6.8%5,3359%13.7%
DeSantis0.9%7131%4.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in South Dakota
America First45%
Populist working class21%
Suburban professional20%
Libertarian10%
Republican leaning independents2%

Black 0.3%, Hispanic 1.4%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 9.2%, 65 and up 33.4%, college graduates 39.7%, women 44.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 66,879 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 78,965 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Minnehaha County16,140Vance53.9%Rubio29.9%
Pennington County10,196Vance57.6%Rubio25.7%
Lincoln County6,727Vance54.2%Rubio29.6%
Brown County3,125Vance57.1%Rubio26.2%
Meade County2,967Vance60.1%Rubio22.8%
Lawrence County2,851Vance58.4%Rubio24.8%
Codington County2,624Vance60.3%Rubio22.5%
Brookings County2,595Vance53.9%Rubio29.9%
Yankton County1,973Vance57.7%Rubio25.6%
Davison County1,752Vance60.1%Rubio22.8%
Union County1,741Vance57.9%Rubio25.4%
Hughes County1,555Vance57.3%Rubio26.1%
Beadle County1,344Vance59.9%Rubio22.9%
Custer County1,192Vance60.2%Rubio22.6%
Butte County1,103Vance61.5%Rubio20.9%
Lake County1,098Vance57.8%Rubio25.5%
Turner County941Vance60.1%Rubio22.7%
Clay County906Vance50.6%Rubio33.7%
Fall River County856Vance61.1%Rubio21.6%
Hutchinson County801Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Grant County729Vance60.5%Rubio22.2%
Hamlin County701Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Roberts County680Vance61.3%Rubio21.3%
Charles Mix County669Vance61.1%Rubio21.5%
McCook County622Vance59.7%Rubio23.2%
Spink County605Vance59.8%Rubio23.2%
Bon Homme County600Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Moody County578Vance59.6%Rubio23.4%
Tripp County569Vance62.1%Rubio20.2%
Kingsbury County550Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Day County525Vance60.6%Rubio22.2%
Walworth County511Vance61.4%Rubio21.3%
Gregory County479Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Deuel County477Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Brule County471Vance60.1%Rubio22.8%
Edmunds County445Vance61.0%Rubio21.7%
Hanson County441Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Douglas County383Vance61.9%Rubio20.5%
Clark County380Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Marshall County377Vance59.3%Rubio23.7%
Hand County370Vance61.0%Rubio21.7%
Perkins County358Vance62.0%Rubio20.4%
Stanley County346Vance60.5%Rubio22.3%
McPherson County293Vance61.8%Rubio20.7%
Aurora County291Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Potter County282Vance61.7%Rubio20.8%
Haakon County266Vance62.4%Rubio19.8%
Lyman County260Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
Sanborn County254Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Oglala Lakota County253Vance61.9%Rubio20.4%
Faulk County250Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Miner County236Vance61.5%Rubio21.1%
Harding County213Vance61.9%Rubio20.6%
Dewey County212Vance61.7%Rubio20.6%
Campbell County197Vance61.0%Rubio21.7%
Sully County195Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Jerauld County194Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Todd County192Vance61.7%Rubio20.6%
Jackson County170Vance62.5%Rubio19.6%
Bennett County167Vance61.8%Rubio20.5%
Corson County158Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Hyde County145Vance62.0%Rubio20.5%
Jones County127Vance62.1%Rubio20.3%
Mellette County112Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Ziebach County101Vance61.9%Rubio20.4%
Buffalo County44Vance62.2%Rubio19.8%