2028 forecast · Tennessee · Republican primary
Tennessee Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 77% of runs
40.3%Vance's projected share
904,877Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 40.3% | 364,396 | 77% | 36.6% |
| Rubio | 21.0% | 189,743 | 8% | 14.8% |
| Trump Jr. | 19.6% | 177,097 | 15% | 13.2% |
| DeSantis | 5.6% | 50,981 | <1% | 5.4% |
| Haley | 2.8% | 25,095 | <1% | 2.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.6% | 14,136 | <1% | 3.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Tennessee votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in TennesseeBlack 2.8%, Hispanic 1.7%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 35.1%, college graduates 39%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 855,729 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 904,877 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson County | 68,740 | Rubio | 53.7% | Vance | 19.9% |
| Knox County | 64,348 | Rubio | 39.9% | Vance | 32.3% |
| Shelby County | 62,290 | Vance | 33.9% | Rubio | 27.4% |
| Hamilton County | 47,389 | Vance | 39.5% | Rubio | 27.5% |
| Williamson County | 45,498 | Rubio | 42.8% | Vance | 29.9% |
| Rutherford County | 41,456 | Vance | 39.6% | Rubio | 25.8% |
| Sumner County | 30,558 | Vance | 44.2% | Rubio | 19.7% |
| Sullivan County | 25,341 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Wilson County | 25,331 | Vance | 43.0% | Rubio | 22.4% |
| Blount County | 22,509 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 19.3% |
| Montgomery County | 21,952 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 22.2% |
| Washington County | 19,180 | Vance | 43.9% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Bradley County | 16,638 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Maury County | 16,175 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Sevier County | 15,197 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Cumberland County | 11,648 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Robertson County | 11,389 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Putnam County | 11,279 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Anderson County | 11,248 | Vance | 45.3% | Rubio | 18.1% |
| Loudon County | 11,058 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Greene County | 10,920 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Madison County | 9,964 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Hawkins County | 9,380 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Roane County | 9,121 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Jefferson County | 9,022 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Hamblen County | 8,637 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Carter County | 8,616 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| McMinn County | 8,311 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Tipton County | 8,304 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Coffee County | 8,281 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Dickson County | 8,277 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Monroe County | 7,820 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Lawrence County | 6,931 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Fayette County | 6,811 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Cheatham County | 6,776 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Gibson County | 6,730 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Bedford County | 6,675 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Franklin County | 6,447 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Warren County | 5,679 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Campbell County | 5,552 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Cocke County | 5,548 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Lincoln County | 5,540 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Marshall County | 5,325 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 25.5% |
| Rhea County | 5,088 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Henry County | 4,932 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Claiborne County | 4,849 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.0% |
| Dyer County | 4,760 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Marion County | 4,640 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| White County | 4,543 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Weakley County | 4,420 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Giles County | 4,376 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Obion County | 4,337 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Hardin County | 4,309 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.5% |
| Henderson County | 4,162 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Grainger County | 4,078 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Carroll County | 3,957 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| McNairy County | 3,926 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Overton County | 3,860 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Macon County | 3,794 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Scott County | 3,617 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| Fentress County | 3,597 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Hickman County | 3,498 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| DeKalb County | 3,272 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Smith County | 3,268 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Union County | 3,143 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Polk County | 3,099 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Morgan County | 3,096 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Unicoi County | 2,961 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Johnson County | 2,843 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Sequatchie County | 2,784 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Humphreys County | 2,770 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Chester County | 2,551 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Benton County | 2,496 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.4% |
| Wayne County | 2,491 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Cannon County | 2,427 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Stewart County | 2,304 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Hardeman County | 2,302 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Grundy County | 2,248 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Lauderdale County | 2,208 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Bledsoe County | 2,179 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| Meigs County | 2,134 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Lewis County | 2,047 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Jackson County | 1,965 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Decatur County | 1,934 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Crockett County | 1,914 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Haywood County | 1,393 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Trousdale County | 1,361 | Vance | 43.3% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Clay County | 1,310 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Moore County | 1,307 | Vance | 47.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Perry County | 1,306 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Houston County | 1,279 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Van Buren County | 1,156 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Hancock County | 1,070 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.6% |
| Pickett County | 1,041 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Lake County | 584 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 37.4% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 71% of runs
35.5%Trump Jr.'s projected share
904,877Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 35.5% | 320,918 | 71% | 23.3% |
| Rubio | 27.6% | 249,308 | 25% | 23.0% |
| DeSantis | 13.7% | 123,793 | 4% | 9.2% |
| Haley | 6.5% | 59,145 | <1% | 3.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | 49,826 | <1% | 5.9% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 8,266 | <1% | 1.4% |
| Cruz | 0.5% | 4,663 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Carlson | 0.4% | 3,536 | <1% | 4.1% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 2,909 | <1% | 2.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Tennessee votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in TennesseeBlack 2.8%, Hispanic 1.7%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 8.4%, 65 and up 35.1%, college graduates 39%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 855,729 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 904,877 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson County | 68,740 | Rubio | 58.1% | Haley | 16.1% |
| Knox County | 64,348 | Rubio | 51.4% | Haley | 11.3% |
| Shelby County | 62,290 | Rubio | 33.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Hamilton County | 47,389 | Rubio | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Williamson County | 45,498 | Rubio | 53.2% | Haley | 13.1% |
| Rutherford County | 41,456 | Rubio | 35.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Sumner County | 30,558 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 29.6% |
| Sullivan County | 25,341 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Wilson County | 25,331 | Rubio | 33.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Blount County | 22,509 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Montgomery County | 21,952 | Rubio | 31.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Washington County | 19,180 | Rubio | 32.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Bradley County | 16,638 | Trump Jr. | 45.7% | Rubio | 17.7% |
| Maury County | 16,175 | Trump Jr. | 42.7% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Sevier County | 15,197 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Cumberland County | 11,648 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Robertson County | 11,389 | Trump Jr. | 43.9% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Putnam County | 11,279 | Trump Jr. | 38.0% | Rubio | 23.3% |
| Anderson County | 11,248 | Trump Jr. | 34.0% | Rubio | 27.8% |
| Loudon County | 11,058 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | Rubio | 22.1% |
| Greene County | 10,920 | Trump Jr. | 55.5% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Madison County | 9,964 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 19.0% |
| Hawkins County | 9,380 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Roane County | 9,121 | Trump Jr. | 47.3% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Jefferson County | 9,022 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Hamblen County | 8,637 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | Rubio | 15.3% |
| Carter County | 8,616 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| McMinn County | 8,311 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Tipton County | 8,304 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Coffee County | 8,281 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Dickson County | 8,277 | Trump Jr. | 47.5% | Rubio | 16.3% |
| Monroe County | 7,820 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Lawrence County | 6,931 | Trump Jr. | 59.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Fayette County | 6,811 | Trump Jr. | 46.3% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Cheatham County | 6,776 | Trump Jr. | 39.9% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| Gibson County | 6,730 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Bedford County | 6,675 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Franklin County | 6,447 | Trump Jr. | 48.7% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Warren County | 5,679 | Trump Jr. | 56.5% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Campbell County | 5,552 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Cocke County | 5,548 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Lincoln County | 5,540 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Marshall County | 5,325 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Rhea County | 5,088 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Henry County | 4,932 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Claiborne County | 4,849 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Dyer County | 4,760 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Marion County | 4,640 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| White County | 4,543 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Weakley County | 4,420 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Giles County | 4,376 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Obion County | 4,337 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Hardin County | 4,309 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Henderson County | 4,162 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Grainger County | 4,078 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Carroll County | 3,957 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| McNairy County | 3,926 | Trump Jr. | 61.6% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Overton County | 3,860 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Macon County | 3,794 | Trump Jr. | 60.3% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Scott County | 3,617 | Trump Jr. | 62.6% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Fentress County | 3,597 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Hickman County | 3,498 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| DeKalb County | 3,272 | Trump Jr. | 53.1% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Smith County | 3,268 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Union County | 3,143 | Trump Jr. | 59.1% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Polk County | 3,099 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Morgan County | 3,096 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Unicoi County | 2,961 | Trump Jr. | 52.3% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Johnson County | 2,843 | Trump Jr. | 59.4% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Sequatchie County | 2,784 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Humphreys County | 2,770 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Chester County | 2,551 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Benton County | 2,496 | Trump Jr. | 60.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Wayne County | 2,491 | Trump Jr. | 62.5% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Cannon County | 2,427 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Stewart County | 2,304 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Hardeman County | 2,302 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Grundy County | 2,248 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Lauderdale County | 2,208 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Bledsoe County | 2,179 | Trump Jr. | 61.9% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Meigs County | 2,134 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Lewis County | 2,047 | Trump Jr. | 61.6% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Jackson County | 1,965 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Decatur County | 1,934 | Trump Jr. | 61.4% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Crockett County | 1,914 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Haywood County | 1,393 | Trump Jr. | 56.8% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Trousdale County | 1,361 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Clay County | 1,310 | Trump Jr. | 62.6% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Moore County | 1,307 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Perry County | 1,306 | Trump Jr. | 61.4% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Houston County | 1,279 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Van Buren County | 1,156 | Trump Jr. | 60.5% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Hancock County | 1,070 | Trump Jr. | 64.6% | DeSantis | 12.8% |
| Pickett County | 1,041 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Lake County | 584 | Trump Jr. | 64.3% | DeSantis | 13.3% |