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2028 forecast · Kentucky · Republican primary

Kentucky Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 72% of runs
56.7%Vance's projected share
547,900Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance56.7%310,77172%37.3%
Rubio26.6%145,64818%11.6%
Trump Jr.6.7%36,6339%13.7%
DeSantis0.9%5,0371%5.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Kentucky votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Kentucky
America First49%
Populist working class20%
Suburban professional18%
Libertarian10%

Black 1.3%, Hispanic 1.2%, Asian and other 0.9%, under 30 8.3%, 65 and up 34.5%, college graduates 35.5%, women 44.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 229,667 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 547,900 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Jefferson County74,028Vance49.2%Rubio35.2%
Fayette County31,203Vance48.0%Rubio36.7%
Kenton County20,724Vance53.0%Rubio31.0%
Boone County18,259Vance55.4%Rubio28.2%
Warren County14,171Vance54.8%Rubio29.0%
Bullitt County12,434Vance59.4%Rubio23.6%
Campbell County12,378Vance52.4%Rubio31.7%
Daviess County12,288Vance57.2%Rubio26.2%
Hardin County12,010Vance58.4%Rubio24.6%
Madison County11,819Vance55.7%Rubio27.8%
Oldham County10,016Vance51.2%Rubio33.1%
Pulaski County9,806Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
Laurel County8,859Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
McCracken County8,273Vance58.4%Rubio24.8%
Scott County7,750Vance55.4%Rubio28.3%
Pike County7,402Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
Jessamine County7,150Vance55.8%Rubio27.8%
Shelby County6,623Vance56.4%Rubio27.0%
Nelson County6,228Vance58.9%Rubio24.2%
Franklin County6,054Vance54.9%Rubio28.8%
Hopkins County5,744Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Barren County5,660Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Boyd County5,642Vance58.7%Rubio24.4%
Marshall County5,217Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Christian County5,148Vance59.5%Rubio23.2%
Graves County5,012Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Henderson County4,985Vance58.4%Rubio24.7%
Greenup County4,961Vance60.3%Rubio22.5%
Clark County4,755Vance57.8%Rubio25.5%
Whitley County4,742Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Floyd County4,680Vance61.0%Rubio21.6%
Calloway County4,519Vance57.1%Rubio26.2%
Knox County4,188Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Meade County4,053Vance59.9%Rubio22.9%
Muhlenberg County3,944Vance61.0%Rubio21.5%
Anderson County3,762Vance59.1%Rubio23.9%
Woodford County3,741Vance52.2%Rubio32.0%
Grayson County3,664Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Boyle County3,651Vance58.1%Rubio25.1%
Montgomery County3,611Vance59.5%Rubio23.4%
Logan County3,594Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Taylor County3,545Vance60.1%Rubio22.7%
Grant County3,540Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Spencer County3,440Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Mercer County3,394Vance59.5%Rubio23.4%
Carter County3,391Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Harlan County3,388Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Lincoln County3,315Vance61.1%Rubio21.5%
Ohio County3,284Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Johnson County3,067Vance61.3%Rubio21.2%
Perry County2,977Vance61.0%Rubio21.5%
Breckinridge County2,966Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Allen County2,951Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Bell County2,906Vance61.4%Rubio21.0%
Russell County2,846Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Adair County2,831Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Wayne County2,692Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Garrard County2,686Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Letcher County2,589Vance61.4%Rubio21.0%
Harrison County2,571Vance59.6%Rubio23.3%
Rowan County2,545Vance56.6%Rubio26.8%
Bourbon County2,525Vance57.0%Rubio26.3%
Clay County2,516Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Rockcastle County2,507Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Hart County2,492Vance61.3%Rubio21.1%
Marion County2,451Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Simpson County2,380Vance59.9%Rubio22.9%
Casey County2,324Vance61.8%Rubio20.6%
Henry County2,319Vance60.5%Rubio22.1%
Larue County2,173Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Mason County2,142Vance60.1%Rubio22.7%
Pendleton County2,133Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Fleming County2,103Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Lawrence County2,046Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Trigg County2,046Vance60.3%Rubio22.4%
Jackson County2,020Vance62.0%Rubio20.2%
McCreary County2,013Vance62.0%Rubio20.3%
Estill County1,935Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Edmonson County1,899Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Green County1,889Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Lewis County1,882Vance61.6%Rubio20.9%
Butler County1,845Vance61.2%Rubio21.2%
Knott County1,802Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Caldwell County1,800Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Washington County1,770Vance60.5%Rubio22.2%
Union County1,766Vance61.2%Rubio21.2%
Monroe County1,752Vance61.5%Rubio20.9%
Owen County1,679Vance60.9%Rubio21.8%
Magoffin County1,625Vance61.3%Rubio21.2%
Morgan County1,624Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Webster County1,624Vance61.2%Rubio21.3%
Clinton County1,608Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Metcalfe County1,569Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Powell County1,563Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Bath County1,543Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Breathitt County1,541Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Livingston County1,528Vance61.2%Rubio21.3%
Leslie County1,474Vance61.9%Rubio20.4%
Todd County1,473Vance61.0%Rubio21.4%
McLean County1,359Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Hancock County1,306Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
Bracken County1,286Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Crittenden County1,255Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Trimble County1,254Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Ballard County1,249Vance61.0%Rubio21.5%
Martin County1,201Vance62.1%Rubio20.1%
Lyon County1,174Vance61.1%Rubio21.5%
Gallatin County1,169Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Carroll County1,137Vance60.9%Rubio21.6%
Cumberland County1,096Vance61.3%Rubio21.2%
Menifee County984Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Nicholas County941Vance60.9%Rubio21.6%
Elliott County864Vance61.7%Rubio20.7%
Lee County835Vance61.7%Rubio20.6%
Wolfe County835Vance61.2%Rubio21.3%
Carlisle County813Vance61.3%Rubio21.2%
Owsley County616Vance62.0%Rubio20.2%
Hickman County601Vance61.6%Rubio20.9%
Fulton County530Vance60.9%Rubio21.6%
Robertson County342Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%