2028 forecast · Vermont · Republican primary
Vermont Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 47.8% | 33,877 | 81% | 39.6% |
| Vance | 25.4% | 17,991 | 12% | 23.8% |
| Haley | 6.9% | 4,859 | 6% | 9.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 5.5% | 3,927 | <1% | 2.6% |
| DeSantis | 3.5% | 2,497 | <1% | 3.4% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 1,206 | <1% | 3.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Vermont votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VermontBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 0.7%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 10.3%, 65 and up 32.5%, college graduates 51%, women 44.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 61,756 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 70,852 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 17,894 | Rubio | 61.7% | Vance | 12.6% |
| Rutland County | 6,905 | Vance | 36.6% | Rubio | 34.5% |
| Washington County | 6,647 | Rubio | 55.0% | Vance | 20.0% |
| Windsor County | 6,485 | Rubio | 48.8% | Vance | 25.9% |
| Franklin County | 5,488 | Vance | 37.3% | Rubio | 32.8% |
| Windham County | 4,822 | Rubio | 51.0% | Vance | 23.8% |
| Addison County | 4,272 | Rubio | 49.9% | Vance | 24.4% |
| Bennington County | 4,005 | Rubio | 44.0% | Vance | 29.5% |
| Orange County | 3,456 | Rubio | 41.4% | Vance | 31.7% |
| Caledonia County | 3,290 | Vance | 36.1% | Rubio | 35.1% |
| Orleans County | 3,026 | Vance | 40.4% | Rubio | 28.4% |
| Lamoille County | 2,845 | Rubio | 51.3% | Vance | 23.4% |
| Grand Isle County | 981 | Rubio | 45.7% | Vance | 28.0% |
| Essex County | 736 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 18.3% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 54.8% | 38,837 | 92% | 52.6% |
| Haley | 14.9% | 10,532 | 8% | 12.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 7.9% | 5,588 | <1% | 4.1% |
| DeSantis | 7.0% | 4,960 | <1% | 5.0% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.2% | 3,666 | <1% | 5.0% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.6% | 416 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 245 | <1% | 2.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Vermont votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VermontBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 0.7%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 10.3%, 65 and up 32.5%, college graduates 51%, women 44.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 61,756 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 70,852 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 17,894 | Rubio | 60.0% | Haley | 21.4% |
| Rutland County | 6,905 | Rubio | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 14.8% |
| Washington County | 6,647 | Rubio | 60.1% | Haley | 16.8% |
| Windsor County | 6,485 | Rubio | 58.0% | Haley | 14.2% |
| Franklin County | 5,488 | Rubio | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 16.7% |
| Windham County | 4,822 | Rubio | 59.0% | Haley | 15.1% |
| Addison County | 4,272 | Rubio | 57.7% | Haley | 14.9% |
| Bennington County | 4,005 | Rubio | 54.8% | Haley | 12.9% |
| Orange County | 3,456 | Rubio | 53.3% | Haley | 11.9% |
| Caledonia County | 3,290 | Rubio | 48.1% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |
| Orleans County | 3,026 | Rubio | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Lamoille County | 2,845 | Rubio | 58.8% | Haley | 15.3% |
| Grand Isle County | 981 | Rubio | 55.8% | Haley | 13.4% |
| Essex County | 736 | Trump Jr. | 35.1% | Rubio | 27.1% |