2028 forecast · Alabama · Republican primary
Alabama Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 71% of runs
42.8%Vance's projected share
823,669Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 42.8% | 352,313 | 71% | 37.5% |
| Trump Jr. | 25.2% | 207,888 | 28% | 17.6% |
| Rubio | 13.1% | 108,089 | <1% | 7.6% |
| DeSantis | 6.3% | 51,446 | <1% | 5.6% |
| Haley | 1.9% | 15,746 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 12,046 | <1% | 3.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Alabama votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in AlabamaBlack 5.7%, Hispanic 1.6%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 7.3%, 65 and up 38.4%, college graduates 35.3%, women 45.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 860,652 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 823,669 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County | 83,687 | Vance | 37.7% | Rubio | 25.5% |
| Madison County | 67,082 | Vance | 38.7% | Rubio | 28.3% |
| Mobile County | 55,610 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Baldwin County | 53,309 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.4% |
| Shelby County | 45,777 | Vance | 42.6% | Rubio | 23.4% |
| Tuscaloosa County | 28,407 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Lee County | 26,232 | Vance | 42.2% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| Morgan County | 22,233 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Cullman County | 21,305 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Limestone County | 21,226 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Montgomery County | 20,350 | Vance | 36.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| St. Clair County | 19,179 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Etowah County | 19,142 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Marshall County | 19,118 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Calhoun County | 18,736 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Lauderdale County | 18,216 | Vance | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.3% |
| Houston County | 16,843 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Elmore County | 16,621 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| DeKalb County | 14,190 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Blount County | 13,992 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Walker County | 13,800 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Talladega County | 11,493 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Autauga County | 11,071 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Jackson County | 11,004 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Colbert County | 10,776 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Coffee County | 9,244 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Chilton County | 9,050 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Covington County | 7,757 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Tallapoosa County | 7,699 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Dale County | 7,596 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Lawrence County | 6,867 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Marion County | 6,632 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 36.6% |
| Cherokee County | 6,170 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Geneva County | 5,826 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 36.8% |
| Russell County | 5,739 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Franklin County | 5,729 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| Winston County | 5,592 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 35.7% |
| Escambia County | 5,358 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 37.9% |
| Randolph County | 4,724 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Chambers County | 4,504 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 36.0% |
| Pike County | 4,302 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Bibb County | 3,875 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 37.5% |
| Cleburne County | 3,787 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Fayette County | 3,772 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 36.0% |
| Henry County | 3,573 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.5% |
| Clarke County | 3,528 | Vance | 39.1% | Trump Jr. | 37.3% |
| Washington County | 3,238 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 37.1% |
| Lamar County | 3,190 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 37.7% |
| Dallas County | 3,126 | Trump Jr. | 38.4% | Vance | 32.9% |
| Clay County | 3,023 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.0% |
| Monroe County | 2,984 | Trump Jr. | 39.0% | Vance | 38.5% |
| Barbour County | 2,829 | Trump Jr. | 39.3% | Vance | 37.5% |
| Pickens County | 2,792 | Vance | 39.4% | Trump Jr. | 36.9% |
| Marengo County | 2,613 | Vance | 38.3% | Trump Jr. | 36.2% |
| Butler County | 2,560 | Vance | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 38.3% |
| Crenshaw County | 2,545 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Choctaw County | 2,066 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 37.0% |
| Coosa County | 1,910 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 36.9% |
| Hale County | 1,775 | Trump Jr. | 37.2% | Vance | 36.5% |
| Conecuh County | 1,757 | Vance | 38.8% | Trump Jr. | 38.0% |
| Macon County | 1,216 | Trump Jr. | 39.8% | Vance | 27.0% |
| Wilcox County | 1,062 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | Vance | 32.7% |
| Lowndes County | 1,060 | Trump Jr. | 40.5% | Vance | 30.5% |
| Sumter County | 924 | Trump Jr. | 40.2% | Vance | 29.5% |
| Perry County | 850 | Trump Jr. | 39.3% | Vance | 32.0% |
| Bullock County | 770 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Vance | 30.9% |
| Greene County | 656 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | Vance | 28.2% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 94% of runs
45.2%Trump Jr.'s projected share
823,669Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 45.2% | 372,652 | 94% | 29.9% |
| Rubio | 18.1% | 148,853 | 2% | 13.1% |
| DeSantis | 15.3% | 125,615 | 3% | 9.7% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.3% | 43,358 | <1% | 5.7% |
| Haley | 4.6% | 37,888 | <1% | 1.4% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 1.1% | 8,896 | <1% | 1.8% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 5,000 | <1% | 3.7% |
| Carlson | 0.5% | 4,052 | 1% | 5.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Alabama votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in AlabamaBlack 5.7%, Hispanic 1.6%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 7.3%, 65 and up 38.4%, college graduates 35.3%, women 45.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 860,652 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 823,669 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson County | 83,687 | Rubio | 33.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Madison County | 67,082 | Rubio | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| Mobile County | 55,610 | Trump Jr. | 46.6% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Baldwin County | 53,309 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Rubio | 19.8% |
| Shelby County | 45,777 | Rubio | 34.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Tuscaloosa County | 28,407 | Trump Jr. | 38.4% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Lee County | 26,232 | Rubio | 29.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Morgan County | 22,233 | Trump Jr. | 50.2% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Cullman County | 21,305 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Limestone County | 21,226 | Trump Jr. | 41.9% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| Montgomery County | 20,350 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| St. Clair County | 19,179 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Etowah County | 19,142 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Marshall County | 19,118 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Calhoun County | 18,736 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Lauderdale County | 18,216 | Trump Jr. | 43.9% | Rubio | 18.7% |
| Houston County | 16,843 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Elmore County | 16,621 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| DeKalb County | 14,190 | Trump Jr. | 62.4% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Blount County | 13,992 | Trump Jr. | 62.5% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Walker County | 13,800 | Trump Jr. | 61.6% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Talladega County | 11,493 | Trump Jr. | 59.6% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Autauga County | 11,071 | Trump Jr. | 49.4% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Jackson County | 11,004 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Colbert County | 10,776 | Trump Jr. | 52.0% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Coffee County | 9,244 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Chilton County | 9,050 | Trump Jr. | 62.1% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Covington County | 7,757 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Tallapoosa County | 7,699 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Dale County | 7,596 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Lawrence County | 6,867 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Marion County | 6,632 | Trump Jr. | 65.8% | DeSantis | 12.6% |
| Cherokee County | 6,170 | Trump Jr. | 63.4% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Geneva County | 5,826 | Trump Jr. | 65.1% | DeSantis | 12.9% |
| Russell County | 5,739 | Trump Jr. | 52.7% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Franklin County | 5,729 | Trump Jr. | 61.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Winston County | 5,592 | Trump Jr. | 65.1% | DeSantis | 12.8% |
| Escambia County | 5,358 | Trump Jr. | 64.2% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Randolph County | 4,724 | Trump Jr. | 62.3% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Chambers County | 4,504 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Pike County | 4,302 | Trump Jr. | 49.9% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Bibb County | 3,875 | Trump Jr. | 64.7% | DeSantis | 13.1% |
| Cleburne County | 3,787 | Trump Jr. | 64.4% | DeSantis | 13.0% |
| Fayette County | 3,772 | Trump Jr. | 64.6% | DeSantis | 13.0% |
| Henry County | 3,573 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Clarke County | 3,528 | Trump Jr. | 61.5% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Washington County | 3,238 | Trump Jr. | 64.1% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Lamar County | 3,190 | Trump Jr. | 66.4% | DeSantis | 12.5% |
| Dallas County | 3,126 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Clay County | 3,023 | Trump Jr. | 64.4% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Monroe County | 2,984 | Trump Jr. | 63.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Barbour County | 2,829 | Trump Jr. | 62.9% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Pickens County | 2,792 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Marengo County | 2,613 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Butler County | 2,560 | Trump Jr. | 62.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Crenshaw County | 2,545 | Trump Jr. | 61.9% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Choctaw County | 2,066 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Coosa County | 1,910 | Trump Jr. | 63.8% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Hale County | 1,775 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Conecuh County | 1,757 | Trump Jr. | 62.2% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Macon County | 1,216 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 20.3% |
| Wilcox County | 1,062 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Lowndes County | 1,060 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Sumter County | 924 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Perry County | 850 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Bullock County | 770 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Greene County | 656 | Trump Jr. | 53.1% | DeSantis | 19.2% |