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2028 forecast · Indiana · Republican primary

Indiana Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 71% of runs
56.4%Vance's projected share
1,049,200Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance56.4%591,69871%37.7%
Rubio26.8%281,65718%12.4%
Trump Jr.6.8%70,8109%14.6%
DeSantis0.9%9,6501%5.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Indiana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Indiana
America First36%
Populist working class18%
Suburban professional17%
Republican leaning independents13%
Libertarian8%
Moderate independents3%

Black 2%, Hispanic 4.9%, Asian and other 1.7%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 32.7%, college graduates 32.3%, women 45.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,110,543 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,049,200 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Marion County94,727Vance51.5%Rubio32.4%
Hamilton County68,289Vance47.7%Rubio37.0%
Lake County61,996Vance56.2%Rubio26.7%
Allen County54,675Vance56.2%Rubio27.0%
St. Joseph County35,654Vance54.2%Rubio29.4%
Porter County30,081Vance54.1%Rubio29.4%
Johnson County29,755Vance56.5%Rubio26.9%
Hendricks County29,456Vance54.9%Rubio28.7%
Elkhart County26,405Vance58.6%Rubio24.2%
Vanderburgh County25,325Vance56.5%Rubio26.9%
Tippecanoe County22,396Vance52.2%Rubio31.8%
Clark County20,785Vance56.9%Rubio26.4%
Madison County20,211Vance58.6%Rubio24.3%
Monroe County18,881Vance47.1%Rubio37.7%
Hancock County17,020Vance56.1%Rubio27.3%
LaPorte County16,255Vance57.5%Rubio25.6%
Delaware County16,138Vance56.6%Rubio26.7%
Morgan County14,992Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Kosciusko County14,793Vance59.6%Rubio23.1%
Floyd County14,651Vance54.9%Rubio28.7%
Boone County14,559Vance51.6%Rubio32.5%
Howard County14,506Vance59.3%Rubio23.5%
Vigo County14,417Vance57.0%Rubio26.2%
Bartholomew County13,337Vance55.7%Rubio27.8%
Warrick County12,613Vance56.6%Rubio26.8%
Dearborn County11,526Vance60.0%Rubio22.8%
Wayne County10,074Vance59.5%Rubio23.2%
Grant County9,756Vance60.2%Rubio22.4%
Lawrence County8,847Vance60.3%Rubio22.4%
Dubois County8,695Vance58.8%Rubio24.1%
Harrison County8,390Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Henry County8,345Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Shelby County8,153Vance59.7%Rubio23.0%
DeKalb County8,147Vance60.0%Rubio22.8%
Noble County7,994Vance60.3%Rubio22.3%
Marshall County7,971Vance59.6%Rubio23.2%
Jackson County7,932Vance60.5%Rubio22.0%
Whitley County7,400Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Huntington County7,329Vance60.0%Rubio22.7%
Putnam County6,874Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Montgomery County6,842Vance60.1%Rubio22.6%
Jasper County6,754Vance60.3%Rubio22.3%
Steuben County6,594Vance59.1%Rubio23.8%
Gibson County6,573Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Ripley County6,310Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Knox County6,220Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Greene County6,182Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Wells County6,087Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Adams County5,910Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Cass County5,847Vance60.2%Rubio22.3%
Wabash County5,819Vance60.0%Rubio22.8%
Miami County5,768Vance61.1%Rubio21.3%
Jefferson County5,575Vance59.6%Rubio23.2%
Washington County5,397Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Franklin County5,354Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Posey County5,247Vance59.0%Rubio23.9%
Decatur County5,224Vance60.7%Rubio21.8%
Clinton County5,189Vance60.3%Rubio22.3%
Clay County5,172Vance60.5%Rubio22.1%
Jennings County5,117Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Daviess County5,085Vance61.3%Rubio21.1%
White County4,557Vance60.0%Rubio22.7%
LaGrange County4,479Vance61.3%Rubio21.1%
Randolph County4,470Vance60.8%Rubio21.7%
Starke County4,401Vance61.0%Rubio21.5%
Scott County4,271Vance60.9%Rubio21.6%
Spencer County4,218Vance59.6%Rubio23.2%
Fayette County4,177Vance61.0%Rubio21.5%
Owen County4,095Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Carroll County3,871Vance60.4%Rubio22.1%
Fulton County3,698Vance60.6%Rubio21.9%
Sullivan County3,596Vance61.1%Rubio21.3%
Orange County3,581Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Fountain County3,480Vance61.2%Rubio21.2%
Jay County3,461Vance61.0%Rubio21.4%
Brown County3,347Vance57.1%Rubio26.2%
Tipton County3,339Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Perry County3,254Vance59.7%Rubio23.1%
Rush County3,239Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%
Vermillion County2,938Vance60.1%Rubio22.6%
Newton County2,838Vance60.8%Rubio21.6%
Parke County2,813Vance61.2%Rubio21.2%
Pike County2,545Vance60.9%Rubio21.6%
Pulaski County2,431Vance61.0%Rubio21.4%
Martin County2,175Vance61.4%Rubio21.0%
Blackford County2,135Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Crawford County2,063Vance61.0%Rubio21.4%
Warren County1,870Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Switzerland County1,811Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Benton County1,627Vance59.9%Rubio22.8%
Union County1,486Vance60.8%Rubio21.8%
Ohio County1,318Vance60.6%Rubio22.0%