2028 forecast · Arizona · Republican primary
Arizona Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 34.9% | 227,497 | 55% | 26.4% |
| Vance | 31.7% | 207,113 | 42% | 31.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 14.0% | 91,274 | 2% | 7.8% |
| DeSantis | 5.5% | 35,748 | 1% | 6.2% |
| Haley | 3.3% | 21,240 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.6% | 10,514 | <1% | 4.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arizona votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArizonaBlack 1.1%, Hispanic 13.6%, Asian and other 3.3%, under 30 10.1%, 65 and up 32.3%, college graduates 43.5%, women 44.6%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 624,039 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 652,820 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 393,123 | Rubio | 40.7% | Vance | 29.6% |
| Pima County | 91,838 | Rubio | 46.7% | Vance | 25.7% |
| Pinal County | 42,270 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Yavapai County | 32,592 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Mohave County | 26,845 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.3% |
| Yuma County | 14,212 | Vance | 34.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Cochise County | 12,175 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Coconino County | 11,778 | Vance | 34.9% | Rubio | 32.4% |
| Navajo County | 8,885 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Gila County | 5,919 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Apache County | 3,865 | Trump Jr. | 39.1% | Vance | 38.9% |
| Graham County | 3,497 | Vance | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 36.1% |
| Santa Cruz County | 3,393 | Rubio | 31.9% | Vance | 25.1% |
| La Paz County | 1,658 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 37.8% |
| Greenlee County | 770 | Vance | 37.1% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 43.1% | 281,445 | 88% | 39.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 22.2% | 144,741 | 8% | 12.4% |
| DeSantis | 12.5% | 81,852 | 3% | 9.4% |
| Haley | 7.0% | 46,009 | <1% | 4.6% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.9% | 31,987 | <1% | 6.2% |
| Cruz | 0.4% | 2,843 | <1% | 2.4% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 2,102 | <1% | 3.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Arizona votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in ArizonaBlack 1.1%, Hispanic 13.6%, Asian and other 3.3%, under 30 10.1%, 65 and up 32.3%, college graduates 43.5%, women 44.6%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 624,039 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 652,820 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 393,123 | Rubio | 50.4% | Trump Jr. | 14.5% |
| Pima County | 91,838 | Rubio | 55.5% | Trump Jr. | 10.9% |
| Pinal County | 42,270 | Trump Jr. | 42.7% | Rubio | 21.4% |
| Yavapai County | 32,592 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Rubio | 23.7% |
| Mohave County | 26,845 | Trump Jr. | 62.3% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Yuma County | 14,212 | Trump Jr. | 46.4% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Cochise County | 12,175 | Trump Jr. | 41.9% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Coconino County | 11,778 | Rubio | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Navajo County | 8,885 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Gila County | 5,919 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Apache County | 3,865 | Trump Jr. | 65.3% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Graham County | 3,497 | Trump Jr. | 60.2% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Santa Cruz County | 3,393 | Rubio | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| La Paz County | 1,658 | Trump Jr. | 64.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Greenlee County | 770 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 16.4% |