2028 forecast · Connecticut · Republican primary
Connecticut Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 43.5% | 97,408 | 43% | 32.1% |
| Rubio | 36.9% | 82,620 | 51% | 28.4% |
| Trump Jr. | 5.9% | 13,330 | 4% | 5.1% |
| Haley | 2.1% | 4,677 | 1% | 5.2% |
| DeSantis | 2.0% | 4,423 | 1% | 5.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 0.6% | 1,404 | <1% | 4.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Connecticut votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
estimatedConnecticut has no county rows in this model, so its primary is the average of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, with turnout from its own history.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 213,493 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 224,168 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 58.3% | 130,585 | 83% | 42.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 19.5% | 43,757 | 12% | 8.6% |
| DeSantis | 6.1% | 13,778 | 3% | 8.4% |
| Haley | 4.6% | 10,349 | 2% | 7.6% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.9% | 4,348 | <1% | 6.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Connecticut votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
estimatedConnecticut has no county rows in this model, so its primary is the average of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, with turnout from its own history.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 213,493 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 224,168 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|