2028 forecast · Louisiana · Republican primary
Louisiana Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 59% of runs
41.4%Vance's projected share
357,298Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 41.4% | 147,928 | 59% | 37.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 28.7% | 102,653 | 40% | 18.5% |
| Rubio | 11.1% | 39,794 | <1% | 5.0% |
| DeSantis | 6.7% | 23,817 | 1% | 6.5% |
| Haley | 1.6% | 5,739 | <1% | 0.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.3% | 4,751 | <1% | 3.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Louisiana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in LouisianaBlack 7.1%, Hispanic 2.6%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 7.4%, 65 and up 36.5%, college graduates 35.8%, women 44.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 301,241 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 357,298 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Parish | 30,262 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.2% |
| St. Tammany Parish | 29,376 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | 26,924 | Vance | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Lafayette Parish | 20,982 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Orleans Parish | 17,981 | Vance | 33.5% | Rubio | 27.0% |
| Livingston Parish | 15,906 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Calcasieu Parish | 15,818 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Caddo Parish | 13,137 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Ascension Parish | 11,951 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Ouachita Parish | 11,252 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Tangipahoa Parish | 10,326 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Bossier Parish | 10,325 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Rapides Parish | 9,844 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Lafourche Parish | 9,820 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.5% |
| Terrebonne Parish | 8,615 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Vermilion Parish | 6,085 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.9% |
| Acadia Parish | 6,053 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 37.3% |
| St. Landry Parish | 5,897 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 37.5% |
| Iberia Parish | 5,229 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 36.0% |
| St. Charles Parish | 5,042 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| St. Martin Parish | 4,732 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 35.7% |
| Beauregard Parish | 3,803 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 36.7% |
| Vernon Parish | 3,708 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 35.6% |
| St. Mary Parish | 3,673 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 38.4% |
| Washington Parish | 3,459 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 38.0% |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | 3,210 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.4% |
| St. Bernard Parish | 3,198 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Lincoln Parish | 3,103 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.3% |
| Avoyelles Parish | 3,048 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 39.0% |
| Webster Parish | 2,904 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 38.6% |
| Evangeline Parish | 2,835 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 37.7% |
| De Soto Parish | 2,458 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 37.7% |
| Natchitoches Parish | 2,452 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.6% |
| Sabine Parish | 2,334 | Trump Jr. | 40.5% | Vance | 39.5% |
| Union Parish | 2,225 | Vance | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 37.8% |
| Iberville Parish | 2,213 | Vance | 38.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.9% |
| Grant Parish | 2,202 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 38.5% |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | 2,147 | Trump Jr. | 36.0% | Vance | 34.7% |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | 2,137 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | 2,012 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Assumption Parish | 1,917 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 37.2% |
| Plaquemines Parish | 1,903 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Allen Parish | 1,874 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Vance | 38.9% |
| Franklin Parish | 1,742 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 37.1% |
| Richland Parish | 1,685 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 36.1% |
| LaSalle Parish | 1,677 | Trump Jr. | 41.1% | Vance | 38.8% |
| St. James Parish | 1,664 | Vance | 38.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| East Feliciana Parish | 1,608 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 36.2% |
| Morehouse Parish | 1,529 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Vance | 37.2% |
| Jackson Parish | 1,421 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 38.5% |
| Concordia Parish | 1,306 | Vance | 39.7% | Trump Jr. | 37.1% |
| Winn Parish | 1,163 | Trump Jr. | 39.4% | Vance | 39.3% |
| West Carroll Parish | 1,116 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 38.9% |
| West Feliciana Parish | 1,014 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Caldwell Parish | 1,003 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Vance | 38.7% |
| Bienville Parish | 972 | Trump Jr. | 39.9% | Vance | 37.9% |
| Cameron Parish | 900 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 38.1% |
| Claiborne Parish | 858 | Trump Jr. | 42.4% | Vance | 35.9% |
| Catahoula Parish | 835 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 39.3% |
| St. Helena Parish | 788 | Trump Jr. | 39.6% | Vance | 36.8% |
| Red River Parish | 619 | Trump Jr. | 39.0% | Vance | 38.8% |
| Madison Parish | 487 | Trump Jr. | 41.3% | Vance | 34.3% |
| Tensas Parish | 283 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | Vance | 35.9% |
| East Carroll Parish | 256 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Vance | 32.9% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 95% of runs
50.3%Trump Jr.'s projected share
357,298Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 50.3% | 179,701 | 95% | 31.3% |
| DeSantis | 16.5% | 58,798 | 4% | 11.1% |
| Rubio | 14.6% | 52,019 | <1% | 8.8% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.3% | 15,202 | <1% | 5.5% |
| Haley | 3.6% | 12,844 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Cruz | 0.8% | 2,665 | <1% | 4.7% |
| Carlson | 0.5% | 1,864 | 1% | 5.8% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Louisiana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in LouisianaBlack 7.1%, Hispanic 2.6%, Asian and other 1.3%, under 30 7.4%, 65 and up 36.5%, college graduates 35.8%, women 44.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 301,241 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 357,298 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Parish | 30,262 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| St. Tammany Parish | 29,376 | Trump Jr. | 38.4% | Rubio | 23.4% |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | 26,924 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 23.1% |
| Lafayette Parish | 20,982 | Trump Jr. | 39.9% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Orleans Parish | 17,981 | Rubio | 32.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Livingston Parish | 15,906 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Calcasieu Parish | 15,818 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Caddo Parish | 13,137 | Trump Jr. | 49.9% | DeSantis | 18.5% |
| Ascension Parish | 11,951 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | Rubio | 17.2% |
| Ouachita Parish | 11,252 | Trump Jr. | 49.5% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Tangipahoa Parish | 10,326 | Trump Jr. | 55.5% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Bossier Parish | 10,325 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Rapides Parish | 9,844 | Trump Jr. | 55.3% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Lafourche Parish | 9,820 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Terrebonne Parish | 8,615 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Vermilion Parish | 6,085 | Trump Jr. | 62.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Acadia Parish | 6,053 | Trump Jr. | 65.1% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| St. Landry Parish | 5,897 | Trump Jr. | 62.3% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Iberia Parish | 5,229 | Trump Jr. | 61.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| St. Charles Parish | 5,042 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| St. Martin Parish | 4,732 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Beauregard Parish | 3,803 | Trump Jr. | 65.2% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Vernon Parish | 3,708 | Trump Jr. | 63.0% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| St. Mary Parish | 3,673 | Trump Jr. | 64.0% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Washington Parish | 3,459 | Trump Jr. | 65.1% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | 3,210 | Trump Jr. | 64.3% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| St. Bernard Parish | 3,198 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Lincoln Parish | 3,103 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Avoyelles Parish | 3,048 | Trump Jr. | 65.9% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Webster Parish | 2,904 | Trump Jr. | 65.2% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Evangeline Parish | 2,835 | Trump Jr. | 64.8% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| De Soto Parish | 2,458 | Trump Jr. | 63.6% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Natchitoches Parish | 2,452 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Sabine Parish | 2,334 | Trump Jr. | 68.7% | DeSantis | 12.3% |
| Union Parish | 2,225 | Trump Jr. | 65.5% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Iberville Parish | 2,213 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Grant Parish | 2,202 | Trump Jr. | 66.2% | DeSantis | 13.1% |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | 2,147 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | 2,137 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | 2,012 | Trump Jr. | 60.9% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Assumption Parish | 1,917 | Trump Jr. | 63.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Plaquemines Parish | 1,903 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Allen Parish | 1,874 | Trump Jr. | 67.1% | DeSantis | 12.8% |
| Franklin Parish | 1,742 | Trump Jr. | 64.4% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Richland Parish | 1,685 | Trump Jr. | 62.1% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| LaSalle Parish | 1,677 | Trump Jr. | 68.8% | DeSantis | 12.1% |
| St. James Parish | 1,664 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| East Feliciana Parish | 1,608 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Morehouse Parish | 1,529 | Trump Jr. | 64.5% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Jackson Parish | 1,421 | Trump Jr. | 66.0% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Concordia Parish | 1,306 | Trump Jr. | 62.6% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Winn Parish | 1,163 | Trump Jr. | 66.3% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| West Carroll Parish | 1,116 | Trump Jr. | 67.7% | DeSantis | 12.6% |
| West Feliciana Parish | 1,014 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Caldwell Parish | 1,003 | Trump Jr. | 69.4% | DeSantis | 11.9% |
| Bienville Parish | 972 | Trump Jr. | 65.2% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Cameron Parish | 900 | Trump Jr. | 67.1% | DeSantis | 12.7% |
| Claiborne Parish | 858 | Trump Jr. | 66.8% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Catahoula Parish | 835 | Trump Jr. | 66.4% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| St. Helena Parish | 788 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Red River Parish | 619 | Trump Jr. | 64.8% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Madison Parish | 487 | Trump Jr. | 62.8% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Tensas Parish | 283 | Trump Jr. | 64.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| East Carroll Parish | 256 | Trump Jr. | 62.5% | DeSantis | 15.7% |