Who wins Brazil’s runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula?
Flávio Bolsonaro goes into Sunday as the favorite, but the race is close. The On Point Politics model projects 51.0% of the valid vote for Flávio and 49.0% for Lula, a gap of about 2.30M votes. Across 40,000 simulations, Flávio wins 7 times in 10.
Every possible outcome
40,000 simulationsEach point on the curve is a possible result for Flávio's share of the valid vote. The blue area is where he wins; the red, where Lula wins. In 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 48.6% and 53.3%.
Flávio leads in 16 of the 27 federal units
Lula dominates the Northeast; Flávio wins the South, the Center-West, São Paulo and Rio. The election turns on margins: the size of Lula's wins in Bahia and Pernambuco against the size of Flávio's in São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina. Hover over a state, or click one to see every municipality.
The closest states
Projected margin- APAmapáTilt Flávio · Flávio 60% chanceFlávio +1.4
- AMAmazonasLean Lula · Flávio 30% chanceLula +2.6
- PAParáLean Lula · Flávio 28% chanceLula +2.9
- MGMinas GeraisLean Flávio · Flávio 85% chanceFlávio +5.3
- DFDistrito FederalLikely Flávio · Flávio 94% chanceFlávio +8.1
- TOTocantinsLikely Flávio · Flávio 91% chanceFlávio +8.2
- ALAlagoasLikely Lula · Flávio 2% chanceLula +10.9
- RJRio de JaneiroLikely Flávio · Flávio 98% chanceFlávio +11.4
- SPSão PauloSafe Flávio · Flávio 99% chanceFlávio +12.9
Minas Gerais, which has voted for the winner in every election since 1989, sits at Flávio +5.3.
Where the votes come from
Projected net votes by stateWith 118 million valid votes, a state's size matters as much as its margin. São Paulo alone should give Flávio a net 3.16M votes; Bahia should hand Lula 2.97M. Added up, the forecast gives Flávio a national edge of about 2.30M votes.
Polling average: Flávio 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
Only each runoff poll's valid vote numbers are used. Newer polls and bigger samples count for more; no house effect adjustment is applied to any pollster.
| Pollster | Field | Sample | Flávio | Lula | Margin | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha final | Oct 24 | 4,050 | 51.0 | 49.0 | Flávio +2.0 | |
| Quaest final | Oct 24 | 3,702 | 51.0 | 49.0 | Flávio +2.0 | |
| CNT/MDA final | Oct 22 | 2,002 | 50.7 | 49.3 | Flávio +1.4 | |
| Datafolha | Oct 21 | 2,520 | 50.0 | 50.0 | Even | |
| AtlasIntel final | Oct 21 | 4,990 | 50.8 | 49.2 | Flávio +1.6 | |
| Gerp | Oct 21 | 2,400 | 52.0 | 48.0 | Flávio +4.0 | |
| PoderData/Aya | Oct 20 | 4,000 | 51.0 | 49.0 | Flávio +2.0 | |
| Quaest/Genial | Oct 18 | 2,154 | 50.6 | 49.4 | Flávio +1.1 | |
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg | Oct 17 | 5,000 | 51.1 | 48.9 | Flávio +2.2 | |
| Veritá | Oct 14 | 15,554 | 51.0 | 49.0 | Flávio +2.0 |
Three sources, 40,000 simulations
The average of runoff polls, weighted toward recent polls and larger samples.
Starts from each state's actual first round vote and reassigns the eliminated candidates' voters by each one's endorsement and profile.
States are adjusted by how they moved in the 2022 runoff and added up with projected turnout. Flávio won 51.0% against Lula in the first round; Bolsonaro won 49.1% in the 2022 runoff.
The forecast in every state and municipality
North
Northeast
Center-West
Southeast
What to know about the runoff
Who is ahead in Brazil's 2026 runoff?
In the On Point Politics forecast, Flávio Bolsonaro is projected to win 51.0% of the valid vote to Lula's 49.0%. Across 40,000 simulations Flávio wins 71.5% of the time and Lula 28.5%. That is an edge, not a certainty: the likely range for Flávio runs from 48.6% to 53.3%.
When do the polls close on Sunday?
Voting runs from 8 AM to 5 PM Brasília time, the same hours across the whole country, which is 4 PM Eastern. The electoral court, the TSE, starts releasing the count only after 5 PM, once every polling place has closed.
When will the result be known?
Brazil votes on electronic machines, so the count is fast. In recent elections most of the vote was tallied within two hours of the polls closing, and the winner was usually clear early in the evening.
What are valid votes?
Votes cast for one of the two candidates, leaving out blank and spoiled ballots. The TSE reports each candidate's share of the valid vote, and whoever wins more than half of it wins the election.
How does the On Point forecast work?
The model blends three sources: the average of runoff polls, weighted 65%; a structural estimate built from each state's first round vote, with the eliminated candidates' voters reassigned, weighted 35%; and how each state moved in the 2022 runoff. It then runs 40,000 simulations with national, regional and state errors.
Where can I follow the count live?
On the On Point Politics live results page, with the TSE's numbers by state and municipality against what the model expected, and a projection of the final result updated every 30 seconds.
On Point Politics forecast, generated Oct 24. Official results are those of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the TSE. On election night, follow the live results.