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2028 forecast · Colorado · Republican primary

Colorado Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

RubioFavorite, wins 83% of runs
46.4%Rubio's projected share
702,109Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Rubio46.4%325,47583%39.1%
Vance25.1%176,53914%22.9%
Trump Jr.7.6%53,066<1%4.0%
Haley5.8%41,0943%7.6%
DeSantis4.3%29,881<1%4.4%
Kennedy Jr.1.7%11,685<1%3.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Colorado votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
RubioVance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Colorado
America First33%
Suburban professional22%
Populist working class17%
Republican leaning independents11%
Libertarian11%
Moderate independents3%

Black 0.8%, Hispanic 9%, Asian and other 2.4%, under 30 11%, 65 and up 26.6%, college graduates 54.3%, women 44.5%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, has no vote count. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 702,109 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
El Paso County86,682Rubio43.9%Vance28.5%
Jefferson County78,271Rubio53.7%Vance21.2%
Denver County69,236Rubio66.2%Haley10.2%
Arapahoe County65,659Rubio53.5%Vance21.0%
Douglas County57,421Rubio50.6%Vance23.4%
Adams County50,350Rubio45.7%Vance26.2%
Larimer County48,878Rubio53.0%Vance21.5%
Weld County44,158Vance35.7%Rubio31.2%
Boulder County39,508Rubio63.8%Vance11.1%
Mesa County22,397Vance42.3%Rubio21.9%
Pueblo County19,399Vance35.6%Rubio27.7%
Broomfield County9,844Rubio58.2%Vance16.9%
La Plata County7,688Rubio46.1%Vance27.6%
Garfield County6,911Rubio35.0%Vance34.1%
Montrose County6,478Vance43.9%Trump Jr.20.1%
Fremont County6,472Vance44.9%Trump Jr.24.4%
Eagle County6,029Rubio54.7%Vance20.5%
Elbert County5,696Vance44.7%Trump Jr.19.6%
Delta County4,944Vance45.4%Trump Jr.21.9%
Teller County4,224Vance44.2%Rubio20.4%
Summit County3,688Rubio57.3%Vance18.1%
Morgan County3,677Vance40.7%Trump Jr.30.4%
Montezuma County3,533Vance44.4%Trump Jr.18.6%
Routt County3,487Rubio52.0%Vance22.9%
Chaffee County3,138Rubio42.2%Vance30.8%
Park County2,920Vance38.8%Rubio30.3%
Logan County2,821Vance44.0%Trump Jr.28.4%
Gunnison County2,351Rubio58.5%Vance16.2%
Pitkin County2,306Rubio59.2%Vance16.3%
Grand County2,229Vance36.8%Rubio33.7%
Archuleta County2,220Vance39.4%Rubio28.7%
Otero County2,220Vance39.9%Trump Jr.26.1%
Moffat County1,962Vance44.4%Trump Jr.28.7%
Las Animas County1,813Vance39.9%Trump Jr.24.5%
Alamosa County1,756Vance33.4%Rubio29.8%
Rio Grande County1,531Vance38.4%Rubio22.7%
Prowers County1,444Vance40.8%Trump Jr.30.1%
Yuma County1,418Vance43.5%Trump Jr.28.1%
Clear Creek County1,358Rubio52.5%Vance22.2%
Kit Carson County1,117Vance44.0%Trump Jr.30.4%
Rio Blanco County1,074Vance45.6%Trump Jr.26.7%
Huerfano County1,012Vance42.0%Trump Jr.19.7%
Conejos County1,011Vance34.6%Trump Jr.24.0%
San Miguel County1,008Rubio62.2%Vance13.1%
Custer County990Vance45.2%Rubio20.3%
Gilpin County919Rubio51.1%Vance23.6%
Ouray County877Rubio47.8%Vance26.9%
Washington County870Vance45.2%Trump Jr.29.4%
Lake County838Rubio49.0%Vance24.6%
Saguache County751Vance37.0%Rubio28.4%
Lincoln County736Vance44.5%Trump Jr.27.6%
Phillips County709Vance43.7%Trump Jr.24.7%
Baca County604Vance45.4%Trump Jr.29.3%
Bent County558Vance41.9%Trump Jr.29.0%
Crowley County447Vance41.0%Trump Jr.33.5%
Costilla County429Vance32.5%Rubio26.2%
Dolores County391Vance47.3%Trump Jr.23.6%
Sedgwick County378Vance44.6%Trump Jr.26.8%
Cheyenne County329Vance44.4%Trump Jr.30.8%
Kiowa County270Vance45.1%Trump Jr.31.5%
Jackson County234Vance46.7%Trump Jr.23.6%
Mineral County180Vance36.3%Rubio34.9%
Hinsdale County139Vance39.8%Rubio30.0%
San Juan County121Rubio52.3%Vance22.5%