2028 forecast · California · Republican primary
California Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
RubioFavorite, wins 51% of runs
33.9%Rubio's projected share
2,428,889Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 33.9% | 823,212 | 51% | 26.6% |
| Vance | 32.3% | 783,793 | 46% | 29.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 12.9% | 314,071 | 2% | 7.7% |
| DeSantis | 5.9% | 142,616 | 1% | 6.6% |
| Haley | 3.9% | 94,674 | <1% | 3.7% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.9% | 47,108 | <1% | 4.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before California votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareRubioVanceTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in CaliforniaBlack 1.8%, Hispanic 20.6%, Asian and other 8.1%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 30.7%, college graduates 49.7%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,227,306 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,428,889 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 518,935 | Rubio | 35.4% | Vance | 31.0% |
| San Diego County | 234,775 | Rubio | 46.5% | Vance | 26.1% |
| Orange County | 228,179 | Vance | 35.5% | Rubio | 31.7% |
| Riverside County | 157,434 | Vance | 36.8% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| San Bernardino County | 124,928 | Vance | 35.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Santa Clara County | 98,896 | Rubio | 46.4% | Vance | 26.2% |
| Sacramento County | 96,895 | Vance | 35.0% | Rubio | 33.7% |
| Alameda County | 82,980 | Rubio | 46.2% | Vance | 26.2% |
| Contra Costa County | 74,475 | Rubio | 38.4% | Vance | 31.8% |
| Ventura County | 63,866 | Rubio | 37.0% | Vance | 32.1% |
| Fresno County | 55,343 | Vance | 33.8% | Rubio | 28.9% |
| Kern County | 52,927 | Vance | 37.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| San Francisco County | 52,799 | Rubio | 55.4% | Vance | 18.7% |
| San Mateo County | 44,547 | Rubio | 43.8% | Vance | 28.6% |
| Placer County | 42,070 | Vance | 39.4% | Rubio | 29.3% |
| San Joaquin County | 41,248 | Vance | 38.0% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| Sonoma County | 38,584 | Rubio | 46.1% | Vance | 27.6% |
| Stanislaus County | 35,460 | Vance | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Santa Barbara County | 29,330 | Rubio | 43.3% | Vance | 27.9% |
| Tulare County | 26,885 | Vance | 35.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Solano County | 26,212 | Vance | 40.1% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| San Luis Obispo County | 25,507 | Rubio | 36.9% | Vance | 33.8% |
| Monterey County | 22,347 | Rubio | 38.7% | Vance | 29.5% |
| Marin County | 22,196 | Rubio | 59.0% | Vance | 15.3% |
| El Dorado County | 20,684 | Vance | 40.6% | Rubio | 28.1% |
| Santa Cruz County | 20,372 | Rubio | 53.1% | Vance | 21.4% |
| Shasta County | 17,853 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Butte County | 16,560 | Vance | 40.3% | Rubio | 26.9% |
| Merced County | 14,887 | Vance | 35.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Yolo County | 13,914 | Rubio | 45.7% | Vance | 26.3% |
| Nevada County | 10,587 | Vance | 38.5% | Rubio | 32.4% |
| Madera County | 10,485 | Vance | 37.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Humboldt County | 10,241 | Vance | 38.4% | Rubio | 31.6% |
| Napa County | 10,154 | Rubio | 43.4% | Vance | 29.1% |
| Imperial County | 9,452 | Trump Jr. | 29.2% | Vance | 27.4% |
| Kings County | 7,696 | Vance | 37.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Sutter County | 7,360 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Mendocino County | 6,237 | Vance | 41.2% | Rubio | 26.2% |
| Yuba County | 5,596 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Tehama County | 5,565 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Tuolumne County | 5,404 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Calaveras County | 5,138 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Lake County | 4,627 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.9% |
| San Benito County | 4,607 | Vance | 33.2% | Rubio | 27.4% |
| Amador County | 4,310 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Siskiyou County | 3,960 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Lassen County | 2,429 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Glenn County | 2,146 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Del Norte County | 1,895 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Plumas County | 1,842 | Vance | 48.1% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Mariposa County | 1,784 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 18.7% |
| Inyo County | 1,556 | Vance | 43.8% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Colusa County | 1,417 | Vance | 37.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Mono County | 1,031 | Vance | 35.8% | Rubio | 35.2% |
| Trinity County | 986 | Vance | 48.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Modoc County | 846 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.3% |
| Sierra County | 337 | Vance | 48.7% | Trump Jr. | 20.7% |
| Alpine County | 113 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 33.1% |
RubioFavorite, wins 88% of runs
42.0%Rubio's projected share
2,428,889Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 42.0% | 1,021,345 | 88% | 38.8% |
| Trump Jr. | 19.7% | 479,122 | 8% | 11.9% |
| DeSantis | 12.6% | 306,162 | 3% | 9.9% |
| Haley | 8.6% | 208,562 | 1% | 5.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.3% | 153,155 | 1% | 7.3% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 18,478 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Cruz | 0.4% | 8,686 | <1% | 2.1% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 7,321 | <1% | 2.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before California votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareRubioTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in CaliforniaBlack 1.8%, Hispanic 20.6%, Asian and other 8.1%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 30.7%, college graduates 49.7%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,227,306 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,428,889 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 518,935 | Rubio | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 17.8% |
| San Diego County | 234,775 | Rubio | 55.0% | Haley | 12.1% |
| Orange County | 228,179 | Rubio | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.5% |
| Riverside County | 157,434 | Trump Jr. | 32.0% | Rubio | 29.0% |
| San Bernardino County | 124,928 | Trump Jr. | 37.0% | Rubio | 24.2% |
| Santa Clara County | 98,896 | Rubio | 54.9% | Haley | 13.5% |
| Sacramento County | 96,895 | Rubio | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.6% |
| Alameda County | 82,980 | Rubio | 54.3% | Haley | 13.6% |
| Contra Costa County | 74,475 | Rubio | 48.7% | Trump Jr. | 12.6% |
| Ventura County | 63,866 | Rubio | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 15.2% |
| Fresno County | 55,343 | Rubio | 36.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Kern County | 52,927 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Rubio | 19.9% |
| San Francisco County | 52,799 | Rubio | 58.5% | Haley | 19.1% |
| San Mateo County | 44,547 | Rubio | 53.5% | Haley | 12.8% |
| Placer County | 42,070 | Rubio | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.7% |
| San Joaquin County | 41,248 | Trump Jr. | 33.5% | Rubio | 27.8% |
| Sonoma County | 38,584 | Rubio | 55.9% | Haley | 12.9% |
| Stanislaus County | 35,460 | Trump Jr. | 37.6% | Rubio | 24.3% |
| Santa Barbara County | 29,330 | Rubio | 52.4% | Trump Jr. | 10.6% |
| Tulare County | 26,885 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Solano County | 26,212 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 27.2% |
| San Luis Obispo County | 25,507 | Rubio | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 12.9% |
| Monterey County | 22,347 | Rubio | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 15.8% |
| Marin County | 22,196 | Rubio | 59.4% | Haley | 21.2% |
| El Dorado County | 20,684 | Rubio | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 19.8% |
| Santa Cruz County | 20,372 | Rubio | 59.1% | Haley | 15.4% |
| Shasta County | 17,853 | Trump Jr. | 46.6% | Rubio | 16.6% |
| Butte County | 16,560 | Rubio | 38.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Merced County | 14,887 | Trump Jr. | 41.4% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Yolo County | 13,914 | Rubio | 53.5% | Haley | 12.6% |
| Nevada County | 10,587 | Rubio | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 15.2% |
| Madera County | 10,485 | Trump Jr. | 44.3% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Humboldt County | 10,241 | Rubio | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Napa County | 10,154 | Rubio | 53.7% | Haley | 11.3% |
| Imperial County | 9,452 | Trump Jr. | 39.7% | Rubio | 22.5% |
| Kings County | 7,696 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Sutter County | 7,360 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Mendocino County | 6,237 | Rubio | 38.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Yuba County | 5,596 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Tehama County | 5,565 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Tuolumne County | 5,404 | Trump Jr. | 41.4% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Calaveras County | 5,138 | Trump Jr. | 45.8% | Rubio | 17.3% |
| Lake County | 4,627 | Trump Jr. | 39.8% | Rubio | 22.6% |
| San Benito County | 4,607 | Rubio | 34.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Amador County | 4,310 | Trump Jr. | 46.9% | Rubio | 16.5% |
| Siskiyou County | 3,960 | Trump Jr. | 43.7% | Rubio | 19.0% |
| Lassen County | 2,429 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Glenn County | 2,146 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Del Norte County | 1,895 | Trump Jr. | 45.3% | Rubio | 17.7% |
| Plumas County | 1,842 | Trump Jr. | 44.1% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Mariposa County | 1,784 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Rubio | 24.6% |
| Inyo County | 1,556 | Rubio | 31.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Colusa County | 1,417 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Mono County | 1,031 | Rubio | 47.8% | Trump Jr. | 14.2% |
| Trinity County | 986 | Trump Jr. | 44.7% | Rubio | 18.5% |
| Modoc County | 846 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Sierra County | 337 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Rubio | 20.3% |
| Alpine County | 113 | Rubio | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |