2028 forecast · Virginia · Republican primary
Virginia Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
RubioFavorite, wins 53% of runs
33.8%Rubio's projected share
1,100,123Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 33.8% | 371,974 | 53% | 26.0% |
| Vance | 32.0% | 352,638 | 44% | 28.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 13.3% | 146,059 | 2% | 7.9% |
| DeSantis | 5.4% | 59,093 | <1% | 5.5% |
| Haley | 4.6% | 50,307 | 1% | 5.0% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 18,552 | <1% | 3.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Virginia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubioTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VirginiaBlack 4.6%, Hispanic 4.3%, Asian and other 3.7%, under 30 8.9%, 65 and up 32.4%, college graduates 51.1%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,025,452 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,100,123 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 132,528 | Rubio | 56.9% | Vance | 17.2% |
| Virginia Beach city | 55,267 | Rubio | 42.4% | Vance | 28.8% |
| Loudoun County | 55,191 | Rubio | 53.6% | Vance | 19.9% |
| Prince William County | 50,621 | Rubio | 40.4% | Vance | 27.8% |
| Chesterfield County | 49,533 | Rubio | 37.5% | Vance | 31.4% |
| Henrico County | 38,181 | Rubio | 38.5% | Vance | 30.3% |
| Arlington County | 29,847 | Rubio | 65.6% | Haley | 12.3% |
| Chesapeake city | 28,932 | Vance | 36.8% | Rubio | 27.0% |
| Richmond city | 20,887 | Rubio | 49.6% | Vance | 22.0% |
| Hanover County | 20,778 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 31.1% |
| Stafford County | 20,237 | Rubio | 36.7% | Vance | 31.4% |
| Spotsylvania County | 20,211 | Vance | 37.1% | Rubio | 28.6% |
| Alexandria city | 17,478 | Rubio | 62.6% | Vance | 11.4% |
| Norfolk city | 16,727 | Rubio | 32.8% | Vance | 32.4% |
| Albemarle County | 16,298 | Rubio | 55.9% | Vance | 18.2% |
| Roanoke County | 15,971 | Vance | 39.3% | Rubio | 28.8% |
| Bedford County | 15,877 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Frederick County | 15,149 | Vance | 42.0% | Rubio | 22.5% |
| Rockingham County | 14,664 | Vance | 43.9% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Newport News city | 14,660 | Vance | 35.6% | Rubio | 24.5% |
| Augusta County | 13,748 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.2% |
| James City County | 12,820 | Rubio | 44.1% | Vance | 28.3% |
| Fauquier County | 12,741 | Vance | 36.9% | Rubio | 31.3% |
| Montgomery County | 12,295 | Rubio | 46.8% | Vance | 25.6% |
| Hampton city | 10,974 | Vance | 36.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Suffolk city | 10,853 | Vance | 37.1% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| York County | 10,183 | Rubio | 39.3% | Vance | 31.4% |
| Pittsylvania County | 9,519 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Washington County | 9,476 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Franklin County | 9,452 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Roanoke city | 9,425 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Campbell County | 9,230 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Lynchburg city | 8,735 | Vance | 38.3% | Rubio | 23.8% |
| Culpeper County | 7,829 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Shenandoah County | 7,445 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Portsmouth city | 7,213 | Vance | 36.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Gloucester County | 6,828 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Botetourt County | 6,797 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Tazewell County | 6,765 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Henry County | 6,761 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Warren County | 6,725 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.8% |
| Louisa County | 6,658 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Isle of Wight County | 6,379 | Vance | 41.9% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| Powhatan County | 6,374 | Vance | 42.9% | Rubio | 21.8% |
| Orange County | 6,141 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 19.1% |
| Wise County | 5,502 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Carroll County | 5,447 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Pulaski County | 5,396 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.1% |
| Goochland County | 5,344 | Vance | 38.5% | Rubio | 28.9% |
| Charlottesville city | 5,258 | Rubio | 60.9% | Vance | 13.1% |
| Wythe County | 5,091 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Amherst County | 4,810 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Smyth County | 4,766 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| New Kent County | 4,748 | Vance | 41.8% | Rubio | 22.1% |
| Russell County | 4,623 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Fluvanna County | 4,335 | Vance | 38.9% | Rubio | 28.2% |
| Page County | 4,245 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Caroline County | 4,239 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Halifax County | 4,210 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Prince George County | 4,208 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.2% |
| Harrisonburg city | 4,188 | Rubio | 45.5% | Vance | 25.7% |
| King George County | 4,182 | Vance | 42.1% | Rubio | 20.4% |
| Accomack County | 4,178 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Mecklenburg County | 3,911 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Dinwiddie County | 3,856 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Scott County | 3,824 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Manassas city | 3,795 | Rubio | 39.0% | Vance | 28.4% |
| Rockbridge County | 3,774 | Vance | 44.8% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Salem city | 3,659 | Vance | 41.2% | Rubio | 24.6% |
| Lee County | 3,470 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.4% |
| Staunton city | 3,416 | Rubio | 40.8% | Vance | 31.3% |
| Greene County | 3,403 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 25.3% |
| Danville city | 3,297 | Vance | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| King William County | 3,288 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Buchanan County | 3,200 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Fairfax city | 3,192 | Rubio | 58.1% | Vance | 16.5% |
| Patrick County | 3,168 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Fredericksburg city | 3,036 | Rubio | 43.7% | Vance | 27.0% |
| Winchester city | 2,988 | Rubio | 37.2% | Vance | 32.8% |
| Giles County | 2,979 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Waynesboro city | 2,936 | Vance | 39.7% | Rubio | 26.1% |
| Floyd County | 2,904 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Appomattox County | 2,859 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Clarke County | 2,756 | Vance | 38.3% | Rubio | 30.1% |
| Grayson County | 2,653 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Westmoreland County | 2,592 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Alleghany County | 2,559 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Poquoson city | 2,508 | Vance | 42.8% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| Madison County | 2,459 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.7% |
| Nelson County | 2,459 | Vance | 40.7% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Colonial Heights city | 2,459 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Southampton County | 2,419 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Dickenson County | 2,338 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Amelia County | 2,251 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Bristol city | 2,217 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.4% |
| Falls Church city | 2,168 | Rubio | 65.5% | Haley | 12.2% |
| Prince Edward County | 2,129 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Northumberland County | 2,096 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Buckingham County | 1,903 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Middlesex County | 1,857 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 19.6% |
| Hopewell city | 1,801 | Vance | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Williamsburg city | 1,769 | Rubio | 47.9% | Vance | 23.7% |
| Lancaster County | 1,754 | Vance | 42.5% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| Mathews County | 1,720 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Radford city | 1,707 | Rubio | 37.3% | Vance | 31.5% |
| Nottoway County | 1,599 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Charlotte County | 1,569 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Northampton County | 1,551 | Vance | 41.2% | Rubio | 19.8% |
| Petersburg city | 1,539 | Trump Jr. | 32.0% | Vance | 26.8% |
| Brunswick County | 1,468 | Vance | 37.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.8% |
| Lunenburg County | 1,398 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Rappahannock County | 1,397 | Vance | 42.5% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Essex County | 1,357 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Cumberland County | 1,347 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Manassas Park city | 1,321 | Vance | 32.2% | Rubio | 27.3% |
| Bland County | 1,207 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Martinsville city | 1,100 | Vance | 39.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Craig County | 1,077 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| King and Queen County | 1,069 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Richmond County | 1,061 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Surry County | 940 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Sussex County | 909 | Vance | 36.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Buena Vista city | 854 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.8% |
| Charles City County | 835 | Vance | 39.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Galax city | 831 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Bath County | 823 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Greensville County | 799 | Vance | 37.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.3% |
| Franklin city | 707 | Vance | 38.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Covington city | 686 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Lexington city | 683 | Rubio | 46.8% | Vance | 24.7% |
| Norton city | 501 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Highland County | 470 | Vance | 47.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Emporia city | 323 | Trump Jr. | 38.5% | Vance | 31.6% |
RubioFavorite, wins 86% of runs
39.9%Rubio's projected share
1,100,123Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 39.9% | 438,771 | 86% | 35.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 21.8% | 240,072 | 9% | 13.2% |
| DeSantis | 11.8% | 129,934 | 2% | 8.4% |
| Haley | 10.0% | 110,306 | 2% | 6.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | 60,543 | <1% | 5.4% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 9,950 | <1% | 1.6% |
| Cruz | 0.4% | 4,221 | <1% | 2.4% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 3,475 | <1% | 2.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Virginia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VirginiaBlack 4.6%, Hispanic 4.3%, Asian and other 3.7%, under 30 8.9%, 65 and up 32.4%, college graduates 51.1%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,025,452 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,100,123 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 132,528 | Rubio | 59.6% | Haley | 16.7% |
| Virginia Beach city | 55,267 | Rubio | 51.6% | Haley | 11.7% |
| Loudoun County | 55,191 | Rubio | 58.1% | Haley | 15.6% |
| Prince William County | 50,621 | Rubio | 48.0% | Trump Jr. | 13.2% |
| Chesterfield County | 49,533 | Rubio | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 13.8% |
| Henrico County | 38,181 | Rubio | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 12.8% |
| Arlington County | 29,847 | Rubio | 59.2% | Haley | 24.1% |
| Chesapeake city | 28,932 | Rubio | 35.3% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Richmond city | 20,887 | Rubio | 54.3% | Haley | 14.6% |
| Hanover County | 20,778 | Rubio | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 18.1% |
| Stafford County | 20,237 | Rubio | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 14.9% |
| Spotsylvania County | 20,211 | Rubio | 38.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Alexandria city | 17,478 | Rubio | 60.2% | Haley | 20.4% |
| Norfolk city | 16,727 | Rubio | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Albemarle County | 16,298 | Rubio | 59.0% | Haley | 17.7% |
| Roanoke County | 15,971 | Rubio | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.3% |
| Bedford County | 15,877 | Trump Jr. | 38.0% | Rubio | 23.2% |
| Frederick County | 15,149 | Rubio | 32.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Rockingham County | 14,664 | Trump Jr. | 33.4% | Rubio | 28.1% |
| Newport News city | 14,660 | Rubio | 30.5% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Augusta County | 13,748 | Trump Jr. | 42.3% | Rubio | 20.3% |
| James City County | 12,820 | Rubio | 53.6% | Haley | 12.8% |
| Fauquier County | 12,741 | Rubio | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.3% |
| Montgomery County | 12,295 | Rubio | 53.8% | Haley | 14.4% |
| Hampton city | 10,974 | Trump Jr. | 32.7% | Rubio | 24.4% |
| Suffolk city | 10,853 | Trump Jr. | 28.9% | Rubio | 28.9% |
| York County | 10,183 | Rubio | 49.4% | Trump Jr. | 11.7% |
| Pittsylvania County | 9,519 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Washington County | 9,476 | Trump Jr. | 41.9% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| Franklin County | 9,452 | Trump Jr. | 43.1% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| Roanoke city | 9,425 | Rubio | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.0% |
| Campbell County | 9,230 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Lynchburg city | 8,735 | Rubio | 31.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Culpeper County | 7,829 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Shenandoah County | 7,445 | Trump Jr. | 44.3% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Portsmouth city | 7,213 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Gloucester County | 6,828 | Trump Jr. | 37.2% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Botetourt County | 6,797 | Trump Jr. | 34.7% | Rubio | 27.2% |
| Tazewell County | 6,765 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Henry County | 6,761 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Warren County | 6,725 | Trump Jr. | 34.3% | Rubio | 27.4% |
| Louisa County | 6,658 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 25.4% |
| Isle of Wight County | 6,379 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Rubio | 28.2% |
| Powhatan County | 6,374 | Rubio | 32.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Orange County | 6,141 | Trump Jr. | 34.7% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Wise County | 5,502 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Carroll County | 5,447 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Pulaski County | 5,396 | Trump Jr. | 45.9% | Rubio | 17.5% |
| Goochland County | 5,344 | Rubio | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Charlottesville city | 5,258 | Rubio | 59.4% | Haley | 20.6% |
| Wythe County | 5,091 | Trump Jr. | 51.2% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Amherst County | 4,810 | Trump Jr. | 42.0% | Rubio | 20.1% |
| Smyth County | 4,766 | Trump Jr. | 53.7% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| New Kent County | 4,748 | Rubio | 31.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Russell County | 4,623 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Fluvanna County | 4,335 | Rubio | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Page County | 4,245 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Caroline County | 4,239 | Trump Jr. | 43.4% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Halifax County | 4,210 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Prince George County | 4,208 | Trump Jr. | 40.8% | Rubio | 19.2% |
| Harrisonburg city | 4,188 | Rubio | 52.4% | Haley | 12.0% |
| King George County | 4,182 | Trump Jr. | 31.0% | Rubio | 29.1% |
| Accomack County | 4,178 | Trump Jr. | 45.6% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Mecklenburg County | 3,911 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Dinwiddie County | 3,856 | Trump Jr. | 50.7% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Scott County | 3,824 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Manassas city | 3,795 | Rubio | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 15.6% |
| Rockbridge County | 3,774 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 29.9% |
| Salem city | 3,659 | Rubio | 35.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Lee County | 3,470 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Staunton city | 3,416 | Rubio | 51.7% | Haley | 11.4% |
| Greene County | 3,403 | Rubio | 36.4% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Danville city | 3,297 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| King William County | 3,288 | Trump Jr. | 47.5% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Buchanan County | 3,200 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Fairfax city | 3,192 | Rubio | 60.6% | Haley | 16.7% |
| Patrick County | 3,168 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Fredericksburg city | 3,036 | Rubio | 51.2% | Haley | 12.4% |
| Winchester city | 2,988 | Rubio | 48.0% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Giles County | 2,979 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Waynesboro city | 2,936 | Rubio | 36.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Floyd County | 2,904 | Trump Jr. | 38.9% | Rubio | 23.5% |
| Appomattox County | 2,859 | Trump Jr. | 53.7% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Clarke County | 2,756 | Rubio | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 19.1% |
| Grayson County | 2,653 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Westmoreland County | 2,592 | Trump Jr. | 46.9% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Alleghany County | 2,559 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Poquoson city | 2,508 | Rubio | 33.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Madison County | 2,459 | Trump Jr. | 39.2% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| Nelson County | 2,459 | Rubio | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Colonial Heights city | 2,459 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Rubio | 25.0% |
| Southampton County | 2,419 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Dickenson County | 2,338 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Amelia County | 2,251 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Bristol city | 2,217 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Falls Church city | 2,168 | Rubio | 59.4% | Haley | 24.1% |
| Prince Edward County | 2,129 | Trump Jr. | 37.7% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Northumberland County | 2,096 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Buckingham County | 1,903 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Middlesex County | 1,857 | Trump Jr. | 36.7% | Rubio | 24.0% |
| Hopewell city | 1,801 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Williamsburg city | 1,769 | Rubio | 52.8% | Haley | 14.9% |
| Lancaster County | 1,754 | Rubio | 30.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Mathews County | 1,720 | Trump Jr. | 43.1% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Radford city | 1,707 | Rubio | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 13.4% |
| Nottoway County | 1,599 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Charlotte County | 1,569 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Northampton County | 1,551 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Rubio | 27.5% |
| Petersburg city | 1,539 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | DeSantis | 21.5% |
| Brunswick County | 1,468 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Lunenburg County | 1,398 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Rappahannock County | 1,397 | Rubio | 33.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Essex County | 1,357 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Cumberland County | 1,347 | Trump Jr. | 49.9% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Manassas Park city | 1,321 | Rubio | 33.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Bland County | 1,207 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Martinsville city | 1,100 | Trump Jr. | 41.8% | Rubio | 18.1% |
| Craig County | 1,077 | Trump Jr. | 48.5% | Rubio | 16.2% |
| King and Queen County | 1,069 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Richmond County | 1,061 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Surry County | 940 | Trump Jr. | 45.5% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Sussex County | 909 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Buena Vista city | 854 | Trump Jr. | 41.3% | Rubio | 21.0% |
| Charles City County | 835 | Trump Jr. | 51.2% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Galax city | 831 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | Rubio | 16.7% |
| Bath County | 823 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Greensville County | 799 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Franklin city | 707 | Trump Jr. | 42.7% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Covington city | 686 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Lexington city | 683 | Rubio | 52.4% | Haley | 14.6% |
| Norton city | 501 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | Rubio | 14.5% |
| Highland County | 470 | Trump Jr. | 39.0% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Emporia city | 323 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 18.4% |