2028 forecast · Missouri · Republican primary
Missouri Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 78% of runs
42.4%Vance's projected share
277,533Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 42.4% | 117,714 | 78% | 38.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 21.4% | 59,435 | 19% | 14.3% |
| Rubio | 16.5% | 45,821 | 2% | 9.8% |
| DeSantis | 6.1% | 17,003 | <1% | 5.9% |
| Haley | 2.6% | 7,260 | <1% | 1.8% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 4,699 | <1% | 4.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Missouri votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MissouriBlack 2.5%, Hispanic 3.3%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 8.8%, 65 and up 33.1%, college graduates 34.1%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 939,270 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 277,533 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 36,762 | Rubio | 35.0% | Vance | 33.2% |
| Jackson County | 23,619 | Vance | 40.7% | Rubio | 20.4% |
| St. Charles County | 20,939 | Vance | 42.1% | Rubio | 23.8% |
| Greene County | 13,587 | Vance | 44.9% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Jefferson County | 12,108 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Clay County | 11,453 | Vance | 42.0% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| Boone County | 7,511 | Vance | 35.4% | Rubio | 33.7% |
| St. Louis County | 6,857 | Vance | 36.6% | Rubio | 25.5% |
| Franklin County | 5,852 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Cass County | 5,802 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Jasper County | 5,632 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Christian County | 5,533 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Platte County | 5,071 | Vance | 38.4% | Rubio | 28.8% |
| Cape Girardeau County | 4,136 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Cole County | 3,849 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 19.0% |
| Lincoln County | 3,518 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Buchanan County | 3,408 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Newton County | 3,213 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| St. Francois County | 3,023 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Taney County | 3,014 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Camden County | 2,807 | Vance | 47.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Johnson County | 2,374 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Webster County | 2,240 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Howell County | 2,204 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Callaway County | 2,185 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Stone County | 2,173 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Warren County | 2,142 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Lawrence County | 2,119 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Pettis County | 1,996 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Phelps County | 1,989 | Vance | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Butler County | 1,981 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Laclede County | 1,981 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Barry County | 1,856 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.3% |
| Scott County | 1,840 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Lafayette County | 1,830 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Polk County | 1,795 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Stoddard County | 1,640 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Pulaski County | 1,576 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.4% |
| Miller County | 1,514 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Marion County | 1,400 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Texas County | 1,347 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.9% |
| Ray County | 1,240 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Crawford County | 1,229 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Benton County | 1,201 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Clinton County | 1,190 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Henry County | 1,181 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Washington County | 1,166 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.5% |
| Randolph County | 1,158 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Perry County | 1,126 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Morgan County | 1,091 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Wright County | 1,091 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Dunklin County | 1,087 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.4% |
| Audrain County | 1,082 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| McDonald County | 1,080 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 37.2% |
| Andrew County | 1,068 | Vance | 47.2% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Adair County | 1,027 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Ste. Genevieve County | 1,019 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Nodaway County | 1,008 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Vernon County | 1,004 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Dallas County | 971 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Saline County | 937 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Bates County | 934 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Osage County | 932 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Cooper County | 901 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Gasconade County | 900 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Macon County | 877 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Douglas County | 865 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Cedar County | 845 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Pike County | 844 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Dent County | 838 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Moniteau County | 823 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Livingston County | 754 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Bollinger County | 743 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Barton County | 717 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Wayne County | 697 | Vance | 43.3% | Trump Jr. | 35.3% |
| Ripley County | 692 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.3% |
| New Madrid County | 681 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.9% |
| Montgomery County | 670 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Madison County | 662 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Ralls County | 642 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Linn County | 632 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Hickory County | 577 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Ozark County | 564 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.7% |
| St. Clair County | 560 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Maries County | 556 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Oregon County | 538 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Caldwell County | 531 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| DeKalb County | 525 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Carroll County | 519 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Iron County | 512 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Howard County | 504 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Grundy County | 503 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Lewis County | 494 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Pemiscot County | 486 | Vance | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 39.1% |
| Monroe County | 485 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Dade County | 484 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.7% |
| Shannon County | 462 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Harrison County | 456 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Chariton County | 448 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Daviess County | 448 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Mississippi County | 419 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 38.4% |
| Shelby County | 379 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Clark County | 377 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Gentry County | 375 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Reynolds County | 355 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Carter County | 343 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 36.5% |
| Atchison County | 307 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Sullivan County | 290 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Putnam County | 285 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Holt County | 275 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Schuyler County | 225 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Mercer County | 217 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Scotland County | 217 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Knox County | 208 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Worth County | 128 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 87% of runs
38.8%Trump Jr.'s projected share
277,533Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 38.8% | 107,638 | 87% | 25.0% |
| Rubio | 22.2% | 61,614 | 8% | 16.5% |
| DeSantis | 15.0% | 41,682 | 5% | 10.2% |
| Haley | 6.4% | 17,833 | <1% | 2.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.2% | 17,086 | <1% | 6.9% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 2,642 | <1% | 1.3% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 1,571 | <1% | 3.6% |
| Carlson | 0.4% | 1,194 | 1% | 4.4% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 938 | <1% | 2.8% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Missouri votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MissouriBlack 2.5%, Hispanic 3.3%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 8.8%, 65 and up 33.1%, college graduates 34.1%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 939,270 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 277,533 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | 36,762 | Rubio | 43.4% | Haley | 13.2% |
| Jackson County | 23,619 | Trump Jr. | 29.7% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| St. Charles County | 20,939 | Rubio | 33.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Greene County | 13,587 | Trump Jr. | 31.5% | Rubio | 27.0% |
| Jefferson County | 12,108 | Trump Jr. | 41.7% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Clay County | 11,453 | Rubio | 31.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Boone County | 7,511 | Rubio | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 13.4% |
| St. Louis County | 6,857 | Rubio | 31.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Franklin County | 5,852 | Trump Jr. | 48.8% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Cass County | 5,802 | Trump Jr. | 42.6% | Rubio | 17.6% |
| Jasper County | 5,632 | Trump Jr. | 48.1% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Christian County | 5,533 | Trump Jr. | 45.4% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Platte County | 5,071 | Rubio | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Cape Girardeau County | 4,136 | Trump Jr. | 46.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Cole County | 3,849 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 22.5% |
| Lincoln County | 3,518 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Buchanan County | 3,408 | Trump Jr. | 43.6% | Rubio | 17.3% |
| Newton County | 3,213 | Trump Jr. | 55.5% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| St. Francois County | 3,023 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Taney County | 3,014 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Camden County | 2,807 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Johnson County | 2,374 | Trump Jr. | 46.3% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Webster County | 2,240 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Howell County | 2,204 | Trump Jr. | 59.6% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Callaway County | 2,185 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Stone County | 2,173 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Warren County | 2,142 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Lawrence County | 2,119 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Pettis County | 1,996 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Phelps County | 1,989 | Trump Jr. | 44.0% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Butler County | 1,981 | Trump Jr. | 61.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Laclede County | 1,981 | Trump Jr. | 60.7% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Barry County | 1,856 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Scott County | 1,840 | Trump Jr. | 58.6% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Lafayette County | 1,830 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Polk County | 1,795 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Stoddard County | 1,640 | Trump Jr. | 61.2% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Pulaski County | 1,576 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Miller County | 1,514 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Marion County | 1,400 | Trump Jr. | 53.0% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Texas County | 1,347 | Trump Jr. | 62.8% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Ray County | 1,240 | Trump Jr. | 55.3% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Crawford County | 1,229 | Trump Jr. | 60.3% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Benton County | 1,201 | Trump Jr. | 59.7% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Clinton County | 1,190 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Henry County | 1,181 | Trump Jr. | 57.2% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Washington County | 1,166 | Trump Jr. | 62.5% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Randolph County | 1,158 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Perry County | 1,126 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Morgan County | 1,091 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Wright County | 1,091 | Trump Jr. | 63.0% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Dunklin County | 1,087 | Trump Jr. | 63.5% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Audrain County | 1,082 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| McDonald County | 1,080 | Trump Jr. | 64.5% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Andrew County | 1,068 | Trump Jr. | 47.7% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Adair County | 1,027 | Trump Jr. | 36.8% | Rubio | 22.2% |
| Ste. Genevieve County | 1,019 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Nodaway County | 1,008 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Vernon County | 1,004 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Dallas County | 971 | Trump Jr. | 59.4% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Saline County | 937 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Bates County | 934 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Osage County | 932 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Cooper County | 901 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Gasconade County | 900 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Macon County | 877 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Douglas County | 865 | Trump Jr. | 62.4% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Cedar County | 845 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Pike County | 844 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Dent County | 838 | Trump Jr. | 61.5% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Moniteau County | 823 | Trump Jr. | 60.0% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Livingston County | 754 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Bollinger County | 743 | Trump Jr. | 62.7% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Barton County | 717 | Trump Jr. | 61.5% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Wayne County | 697 | Trump Jr. | 63.5% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Ripley County | 692 | Trump Jr. | 63.7% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| New Madrid County | 681 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Montgomery County | 670 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Madison County | 662 | Trump Jr. | 60.2% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Ralls County | 642 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Linn County | 632 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Hickory County | 577 | Trump Jr. | 61.1% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Ozark County | 564 | Trump Jr. | 61.7% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| St. Clair County | 560 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Maries County | 556 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Oregon County | 538 | Trump Jr. | 63.5% | DeSantis | 13.2% |
| Caldwell County | 531 | Trump Jr. | 56.3% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| DeKalb County | 525 | Trump Jr. | 61.1% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Carroll County | 519 | Trump Jr. | 58.6% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Iron County | 512 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Howard County | 504 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Grundy County | 503 | Trump Jr. | 59.7% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Lewis County | 494 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Pemiscot County | 486 | Trump Jr. | 64.7% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Monroe County | 485 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Dade County | 484 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Shannon County | 462 | Trump Jr. | 63.4% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Harrison County | 456 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Chariton County | 448 | Trump Jr. | 54.2% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Daviess County | 448 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Mississippi County | 419 | Trump Jr. | 64.6% | DeSantis | 13.7% |
| Shelby County | 379 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Clark County | 377 | Trump Jr. | 59.5% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Gentry County | 375 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Reynolds County | 355 | Trump Jr. | 62.3% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| Carter County | 343 | Trump Jr. | 64.9% | DeSantis | 12.8% |
| Atchison County | 307 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Sullivan County | 290 | Trump Jr. | 61.5% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Putnam County | 285 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Holt County | 275 | Trump Jr. | 59.4% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Schuyler County | 225 | Trump Jr. | 61.7% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Mercer County | 217 | Trump Jr. | 61.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Scotland County | 217 | Trump Jr. | 59.8% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Knox County | 208 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Worth County | 128 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 14.5% |