2028 forecast · Minnesota · Republican primary
Minnesota Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
RubioFavorite, wins 68% of runs
39.7%Rubio's projected share
818,966Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 39.7% | 325,019 | 68% | 32.7% |
| Vance | 30.2% | 247,215 | 30% | 27.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 9.8% | 80,594 | <1% | 5.6% |
| Haley | 4.9% | 39,947 | 1% | 5.7% |
| DeSantis | 4.5% | 37,267 | <1% | 4.6% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 13,704 | <1% | 3.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Minnesota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MinnesotaBlack 1.2%, Hispanic 1.9%, Asian and other 2.4%, under 30 10%, 65 and up 29.6%, college graduates 47.1%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 114,245 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 818,966 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County | 159,011 | Rubio | 62.9% | Vance | 12.8% |
| Dakota County | 62,928 | Rubio | 48.1% | Vance | 25.7% |
| Ramsey County | 59,806 | Rubio | 58.6% | Vance | 16.9% |
| Anoka County | 53,074 | Rubio | 41.3% | Vance | 30.9% |
| Washington County | 41,888 | Rubio | 49.3% | Vance | 24.8% |
| St. Louis County | 29,327 | Rubio | 38.3% | Vance | 33.2% |
| Wright County | 25,575 | Vance | 38.3% | Rubio | 30.3% |
| Scott County | 23,505 | Rubio | 42.1% | Vance | 30.1% |
| Stearns County | 23,498 | Vance | 40.4% | Rubio | 25.0% |
| Olmsted County | 22,137 | Rubio | 49.7% | Vance | 24.5% |
| Carver County | 18,364 | Rubio | 49.3% | Vance | 25.0% |
| Sherburne County | 16,713 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 25.4% |
| Crow Wing County | 12,054 | Vance | 43.8% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Otter Tail County | 10,548 | Vance | 44.6% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Chisago County | 10,180 | Vance | 43.6% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| Rice County | 9,216 | Vance | 37.0% | Rubio | 30.8% |
| Blue Earth County | 9,207 | Rubio | 35.1% | Vance | 34.4% |
| Clay County | 8,344 | Rubio | 40.0% | Vance | 31.6% |
| Goodhue County | 7,800 | Vance | 41.6% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Isanti County | 7,685 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 21.3% |
| Douglas County | 7,242 | Vance | 44.3% | Rubio | 19.7% |
| Itasca County | 7,232 | Vance | 44.2% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| Winona County | 7,177 | Vance | 36.5% | Rubio | 32.5% |
| Kandiyohi County | 6,557 | Vance | 42.4% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Benton County | 6,552 | Vance | 43.3% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Morrison County | 6,459 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| McLeod County | 6,216 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Beltrami County | 6,188 | Vance | 40.5% | Rubio | 26.1% |
| Steele County | 5,784 | Vance | 42.0% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| Becker County | 5,579 | Vance | 44.9% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Cass County | 5,425 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Carlton County | 5,342 | Vance | 39.7% | Rubio | 27.9% |
| Le Sueur County | 5,075 | Vance | 43.0% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| Nicollet County | 4,972 | Rubio | 36.7% | Vance | 34.0% |
| Mower County | 4,927 | Vance | 41.2% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Pine County | 4,833 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Freeborn County | 4,550 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| Mille Lacs County | 4,483 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Polk County | 4,416 | Vance | 43.2% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| Todd County | 4,283 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Brown County | 4,194 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 19.2% |
| Meeker County | 4,091 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.4% |
| Hubbard County | 3,855 | Vance | 44.8% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| Wabasha County | 3,826 | Vance | 43.6% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| Lyon County | 3,673 | Vance | 42.4% | Rubio | 22.4% |
| Dodge County | 3,601 | Vance | 41.9% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Fillmore County | 3,444 | Vance | 43.9% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Martin County | 3,166 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Houston County | 3,103 | Vance | 41.1% | Rubio | 26.2% |
| Waseca County | 2,973 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Aitkin County | 2,933 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Kanabec County | 2,891 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Roseau County | 2,607 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.2% |
| Sibley County | 2,571 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Wadena County | 2,457 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Redwood County | 2,443 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Renville County | 2,391 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Nobles County | 2,355 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Faribault County | 2,266 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Pennington County | 2,084 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Pope County | 2,041 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Koochiching County | 1,866 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 19.5% |
| Chippewa County | 1,802 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Lake County | 1,764 | Vance | 40.4% | Rubio | 28.1% |
| Cottonwood County | 1,750 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 21.4% |
| Jackson County | 1,681 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Rock County | 1,591 | Vance | 44.2% | Rubio | 18.6% |
| Yellow Medicine County | 1,580 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Marshall County | 1,564 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Pipestone County | 1,467 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Swift County | 1,450 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 19.0% |
| Clearwater County | 1,449 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Stevens County | 1,418 | Vance | 40.2% | Rubio | 23.9% |
| Murray County | 1,412 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Watonwan County | 1,403 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.3% |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,136 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Grant County | 1,001 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Wilkin County | 991 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Lincoln County | 948 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 19.2% |
| Norman County | 906 | Vance | 44.1% | Rubio | 19.2% |
| Cook County | 847 | Rubio | 49.0% | Vance | 26.0% |
| Big Stone County | 794 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Lake of the Woods County | 708 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Kittson County | 696 | Vance | 43.8% | Rubio | 21.4% |
| Red Lake County | 615 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Traverse County | 508 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Mahnomen County | 502 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
RubioFavorite, wins 96% of runs
47.0%Rubio's projected share
818,966Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 47.0% | 385,317 | 96% | 44.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 16.3% | 133,538 | 1% | 9.6% |
| Haley | 10.6% | 86,374 | 3% | 7.2% |
| DeSantis | 10.0% | 82,121 | 1% | 7.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | 44,619 | <1% | 5.7% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.7% | 5,454 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 2,960 | <1% | 3.0% |
| Cruz | 0.3% | 2,575 | <1% | 1.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Minnesota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MinnesotaBlack 1.2%, Hispanic 1.9%, Asian and other 2.4%, under 30 10%, 65 and up 29.6%, college graduates 47.1%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 114,245 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 818,966 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County | 159,011 | Rubio | 63.2% | Haley | 17.8% |
| Dakota County | 62,928 | Rubio | 57.3% | Haley | 11.7% |
| Ramsey County | 59,806 | Rubio | 62.4% | Haley | 15.2% |
| Anoka County | 53,074 | Rubio | 52.6% | Trump Jr. | 11.3% |
| Washington County | 41,888 | Rubio | 58.0% | Haley | 12.5% |
| St. Louis County | 29,327 | Rubio | 50.1% | Trump Jr. | 12.7% |
| Wright County | 25,575 | Rubio | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Scott County | 23,505 | Rubio | 52.9% | Haley | 10.4% |
| Stearns County | 23,498 | Rubio | 35.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Olmsted County | 22,137 | Rubio | 58.2% | Haley | 12.7% |
| Carver County | 18,364 | Rubio | 58.2% | Haley | 12.5% |
| Sherburne County | 16,713 | Rubio | 36.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Crow Wing County | 12,054 | Rubio | 31.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.0% |
| Otter Tail County | 10,548 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 28.4% |
| Chisago County | 10,180 | Trump Jr. | 32.6% | Rubio | 28.8% |
| Rice County | 9,216 | Rubio | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 19.5% |
| Blue Earth County | 9,207 | Rubio | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 15.3% |
| Clay County | 8,344 | Rubio | 50.8% | Trump Jr. | 11.5% |
| Goodhue County | 7,800 | Rubio | 36.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Isanti County | 7,685 | Trump Jr. | 39.8% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| Douglas County | 7,242 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 29.8% |
| Itasca County | 7,232 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 30.1% |
| Winona County | 7,177 | Rubio | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 17.3% |
| Kandiyohi County | 6,557 | Trump Jr. | 30.9% | Rubio | 30.0% |
| Benton County | 6,552 | Trump Jr. | 32.7% | Rubio | 28.2% |
| Morrison County | 6,459 | Trump Jr. | 48.1% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| McLeod County | 6,216 | Trump Jr. | 39.7% | Rubio | 22.6% |
| Beltrami County | 6,188 | Rubio | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Steele County | 5,784 | Rubio | 33.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Becker County | 5,579 | Trump Jr. | 33.6% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Cass County | 5,425 | Trump Jr. | 39.1% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| Carlton County | 5,342 | Rubio | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Le Sueur County | 5,075 | Trump Jr. | 30.9% | Rubio | 30.3% |
| Nicollet County | 4,972 | Rubio | 48.3% | Trump Jr. | 13.9% |
| Mower County | 4,927 | Rubio | 34.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Pine County | 4,833 | Trump Jr. | 44.1% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Freeborn County | 4,550 | Trump Jr. | 37.4% | Rubio | 24.8% |
| Mille Lacs County | 4,483 | Trump Jr. | 43.0% | Rubio | 19.7% |
| Polk County | 4,416 | Trump Jr. | 30.7% | Rubio | 30.2% |
| Todd County | 4,283 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Brown County | 4,194 | Trump Jr. | 35.8% | Rubio | 25.7% |
| Meeker County | 4,091 | Trump Jr. | 42.4% | Rubio | 20.2% |
| Hubbard County | 3,855 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | Rubio | 29.8% |
| Wabasha County | 3,826 | Trump Jr. | 30.8% | Rubio | 30.7% |
| Lyon County | 3,673 | Rubio | 32.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Dodge County | 3,601 | Rubio | 34.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Fillmore County | 3,444 | Trump Jr. | 32.4% | Rubio | 29.2% |
| Martin County | 3,166 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 23.2% |
| Houston County | 3,103 | Rubio | 38.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.5% |
| Waseca County | 2,973 | Trump Jr. | 36.9% | Rubio | 25.0% |
| Aitkin County | 2,933 | Trump Jr. | 42.0% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Kanabec County | 2,891 | Trump Jr. | 46.9% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Roseau County | 2,607 | Trump Jr. | 44.5% | Rubio | 18.4% |
| Sibley County | 2,571 | Trump Jr. | 42.8% | Rubio | 20.1% |
| Wadena County | 2,457 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Redwood County | 2,443 | Trump Jr. | 43.5% | Rubio | 19.1% |
| Renville County | 2,391 | Trump Jr. | 44.7% | Rubio | 18.4% |
| Nobles County | 2,355 | Trump Jr. | 42.9% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Faribault County | 2,266 | Trump Jr. | 39.2% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Pennington County | 2,084 | Trump Jr. | 37.2% | Rubio | 24.5% |
| Pope County | 2,041 | Trump Jr. | 36.8% | Rubio | 25.0% |
| Koochiching County | 1,866 | Trump Jr. | 37.0% | Rubio | 24.9% |
| Chippewa County | 1,802 | Trump Jr. | 40.6% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Lake County | 1,764 | Rubio | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Cottonwood County | 1,750 | Trump Jr. | 40.2% | Rubio | 21.8% |
| Jackson County | 1,681 | Trump Jr. | 38.0% | Rubio | 23.9% |
| Rock County | 1,591 | Trump Jr. | 33.5% | Rubio | 27.7% |
| Yellow Medicine County | 1,580 | Trump Jr. | 44.2% | Rubio | 18.7% |
| Marshall County | 1,564 | Trump Jr. | 47.5% | Rubio | 16.1% |
| Pipestone County | 1,467 | Trump Jr. | 44.6% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Swift County | 1,450 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Clearwater County | 1,449 | Trump Jr. | 48.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Stevens County | 1,418 | Rubio | 33.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Murray County | 1,412 | Trump Jr. | 41.4% | Rubio | 20.9% |
| Watonwan County | 1,403 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Lac qui Parle County | 1,136 | Trump Jr. | 38.1% | Rubio | 24.0% |
| Grant County | 1,001 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 23.5% |
| Wilkin County | 991 | Trump Jr. | 37.8% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Lincoln County | 948 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Rubio | 25.2% |
| Norman County | 906 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 28.9% |
| Cook County | 847 | Rubio | 59.1% | Haley | 12.3% |
| Big Stone County | 794 | Trump Jr. | 35.0% | Rubio | 26.8% |
| Lake of the Woods County | 708 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Kittson County | 696 | Rubio | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Red Lake County | 615 | Trump Jr. | 42.3% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Traverse County | 508 | Trump Jr. | 44.7% | Rubio | 18.6% |
| Mahnomen County | 502 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |