Who funds the midterms, and where they live.
$1.99B in itemized gifts to 2026 House and Senate campaigns, 41,731,471 donations through September 30, every ActBlue and WinRed line included and each one placed in the county the donor lives in. Here is each race's donor coalition, set against its voters, and how the forecast now reads it. See the national donor map across 2022, 2024 and 2026.
What the forecast does with it
New on October 25Every race with both nominees on file gets a donor score from four readings: the Democrat's share of the two nominees' in state dollars, the share of donations, a count of people rather than dollars, how much more of one side's money comes in gifts under $200, and how far each side's donors reach into the other side's counties.
Each reading is set against what a race of the same partisan lean and incumbency normally shows, fit across 406 races, so ActBlue's national size never counts as an edge. Inside one spread of normal the term is zero. Past it the race moves 0.02 logit per unit, capped at 0.05, through the fundamentals and census legs, so a well polled race barely moves. Governors file with the states and carry no donor term. How the model works
- NY-21z +3.6toward D 0.050
- CA-34z -2.9toward R 0.043
- OR-06z +2.9toward D 0.042
- MT-02z -2.5toward R 0.036
- MI-08z +2.4toward D 0.033
- CA-14z -2.4toward R 0.033
- TX-26z -2.4toward R 0.033
- DE-01z +2.3toward D 0.032
- CA-28z +2.3toward D 0.031
- Tennessee Senatez -2.2toward R 0.028
- WA-01z +2.1toward D 0.028
- CA-41z +2.0toward D 0.025
- VA-04z +2.0toward D 0.025
- CA-29z -1.9toward R 0.024
Shift in logit before blending with the polls; most of these are House seats with little or no polling.
Every race's donor coalition
Senate races by closeness; search any House seatIowa Senate
Race forecast- Raised through 2026-09-30
- $20.2M
- Itemized from individuals
- $17.7M
- Donations
- 355,129
- From the home state
- 16%
- Where in state donors live
- R +1 counties
- Under $200 51%
- $200 to $999 22%
- $1,000 to $2,499 13%
- $2,500 and up 14%
- Itemized individuals 90%
- Other individuals 2%
- PACs 6%
- Party 1%
- Transfers and other 0%
- Raised through 2026-09-30
- $13.5M
- Itemized from individuals
- $5.8M
- Donations
- 45,079
- From the home state
- 41%
- Where in state donors live
- R +9 counties
- Under $200 8%
- $200 to $999 18%
- $1,000 to $2,499 27%
- $2,500 and up 48%
- Itemized individuals 41%
- Other individuals 10%
- PACs 21%
- Party 1%
- Transfers and other 27%
- In state dollars-0.37
- Number of donations+0.42
- Small dollar share+0.96
- Reach into the other side's counties+0.11
Donor coalition against voter coalition
Counties grouped by the 2024 presidential vote and by size| Counties | Share of voters | Turek: donor $ | projected votes | Hinson: donor $ | projected votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong D | 5% | 13% over | 7% | 4% over | 3% |
| Lean D | 30% | 43% over | 37% | 36% over | 24% |
| Lean R | 20% | 17% under | 21% | 31% over | 19% |
| Strong R | 44% | 27% under | 35% | 30% under | 54% |
| Largest counties, half the vote | 50% | 72% over | 60% | 62% over | 41% |
| Everywhere else | 50% | 28% under | 40% | 38% under | 59% |
Donor dollars are each nominee's in state money from the donor map, by county; projected votes are the nominee's votes in the forecast's county map. Over means the nominee's donors are more concentrated there than their voters.
- Polk$788KD +11 in 2024
- Johnson$372KD +39 in 2024
- Linn$226KD +10 in 2024
- Pottawattamie$141KR +20 in 2024
- Dallas$135KR +5 in 2024
- Story$112KD +11 in 2024
- Linn$396KD +10 in 2024
- Polk$283KD +11 in 2024
- Dubuque$215KR +9 in 2024
- Dallas$161KR +5 in 2024
- Black Hawk$120KD +1 in 2024
- Scott$107KR +4 in 2024
Where the donations come from
Donations per 1,000 votes cast in 2024, every partyDonations by size band nationally: Under $200 39,831,931, $200 to $999 903,821, $1,000 to $2,499 281,129, $2,500 and up 164,762.
Source: the On Point donor map built October 20 2026 from FEC candidate committee filings (itemized individual receipts, refunds netted), ActBlue and WinRed earmark lines from their raw filings (2025 midyear and year end, 2026 monthlies and quarterlies) and FEC bulk data through June 30; ZIP codes placed in counties by land area. Excludes joint fundraising transfers, unitemized direct gifts and candidate self funding. Money sources by type cover January 1 2025 to June 30 2026. Totals raised come from each campaign's FEC reports through September 30. Connecticut uses its planning regions.