2028 forecast · Michigan · Republican primary
Michigan Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 73% of runs
39.4%Vance's projected share
1,391,607Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 39.4% | 548,576 | 73% | 37.3% |
| Rubio | 25.7% | 357,056 | 21% | 17.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 14.9% | 207,889 | 5% | 9.5% |
| DeSantis | 5.2% | 72,682 | <1% | 5.2% |
| Haley | 3.7% | 50,965 | <1% | 3.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.9% | 26,246 | <1% | 4.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Michigan votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MichiganBlack 2.6%, Hispanic 2.2%, Asian and other 2.1%, under 30 10.2%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 39.4%, women 44.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,323,589 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,391,607 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland County | 179,496 | Rubio | 37.9% | Vance | 32.6% |
| Wayne County | 166,172 | Vance | 37.1% | Rubio | 27.5% |
| Macomb County | 128,597 | Vance | 44.3% | Rubio | 18.6% |
| Kent County | 90,924 | Rubio | 43.8% | Vance | 28.4% |
| Genesee County | 52,060 | Vance | 43.4% | Rubio | 19.0% |
| Ottawa County | 48,684 | Vance | 38.9% | Rubio | 29.1% |
| Washtenaw County | 48,121 | Rubio | 52.0% | Vance | 20.5% |
| Livingston County | 37,293 | Vance | 40.3% | Rubio | 28.5% |
| Kalamazoo County | 34,202 | Rubio | 38.6% | Vance | 32.1% |
| Ingham County | 33,064 | Rubio | 40.2% | Vance | 30.5% |
| St. Clair County | 27,803 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Monroe County | 25,522 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Saginaw County | 24,876 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Muskegon County | 23,366 | Vance | 43.8% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Jackson County | 22,342 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Berrien County | 21,015 | Vance | 43.2% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Allegan County | 20,180 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 19.2% |
| Calhoun County | 17,528 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 19.1% |
| Eaton County | 16,417 | Vance | 42.9% | Rubio | 22.2% |
| Bay County | 16,402 | Vance | 45.0% | Rubio | 19.1% |
| Lapeer County | 16,387 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.3% |
| Grand Traverse County | 16,330 | Vance | 38.4% | Rubio | 31.6% |
| Lenawee County | 15,115 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Midland County | 13,547 | Vance | 40.9% | Rubio | 27.7% |
| Clinton County | 13,231 | Vance | 41.3% | Rubio | 26.3% |
| Shiawassee County | 11,298 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Barry County | 11,197 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.7% |
| Van Buren County | 10,934 | Vance | 44.5% | Rubio | 18.9% |
| Montcalm County | 10,080 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Marquette County | 9,701 | Vance | 37.8% | Rubio | 31.8% |
| Ionia County | 9,543 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Tuscola County | 9,161 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Newaygo County | 8,677 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| St. Joseph County | 8,370 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Isabella County | 7,862 | Vance | 41.1% | Rubio | 24.0% |
| Cass County | 7,846 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 23.9% |
| Hillsdale County | 7,661 | Vance | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.3% |
| Sanilac County | 7,110 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Mecosta County | 6,277 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Branch County | 6,223 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Delta County | 6,131 | Vance | 47.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Emmet County | 6,034 | Vance | 41.9% | Rubio | 26.7% |
| Huron County | 5,572 | Vance | 47.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Wexford County | 5,572 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Gratiot County | 5,492 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Houghton County | 5,116 | Vance | 42.2% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Clare County | 4,999 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Mason County | 4,918 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Alpena County | 4,803 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.9% |
| Charlevoix County | 4,778 | Vance | 45.0% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Chippewa County | 4,686 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Antrim County | 4,667 | Vance | 46.4% | Rubio | 18.5% |
| Otsego County | 4,616 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Cheboygan County | 4,607 | Vance | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.2% |
| Gladwin County | 4,552 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Roscommon County | 4,538 | Vance | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Dickinson County | 4,433 | Vance | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Leelanau County | 4,433 | Rubio | 38.4% | Vance | 33.6% |
| Iosco County | 4,399 | Vance | 47.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Oceana County | 4,214 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.0% |
| Manistee County | 4,032 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 19.5% |
| Osceola County | 3,992 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Ogemaw County | 3,721 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Menominee County | 3,719 | Vance | 47.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Kalkaska County | 3,427 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Benzie County | 3,368 | Vance | 43.0% | Rubio | 24.6% |
| Missaukee County | 2,881 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Arenac County | 2,690 | Vance | 47.3% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Presque Isle County | 2,438 | Vance | 48.3% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Crawford County | 2,424 | Vance | 47.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Gogebic County | 2,209 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Alcona County | 2,193 | Vance | 48.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Iron County | 1,956 | Vance | 48.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Montmorency County | 1,904 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Lake County | 1,899 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Mackinac County | 1,846 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Oscoda County | 1,542 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Alger County | 1,363 | Vance | 47.1% | Trump Jr. | 23.8% |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,355 | Vance | 47.9% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Baraga County | 1,132 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Ontonagon County | 1,070 | Vance | 48.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.5% |
| Luce County | 845 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Keweenaw County | 427 | Vance | 44.4% | Rubio | 23.2% |
RubioFavorite, wins 65% of runs
34.2%Rubio's projected share
1,391,607Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 34.2% | 475,585 | 65% | 28.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 26.5% | 369,268 | 30% | 17.1% |
| DeSantis | 12.5% | 174,336 | 3% | 9.0% |
| Haley | 8.9% | 123,460 | 1% | 5.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.8% | 94,802 | 2% | 7.9% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 12,493 | <1% | 1.4% |
| Cruz | 0.4% | 5,516 | <1% | 2.2% |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 5,330 | <1% | 3.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Michigan votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MichiganBlack 2.6%, Hispanic 2.2%, Asian and other 2.1%, under 30 10.2%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 39.4%, women 44.9%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,323,589 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,391,607 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland County | 179,496 | Rubio | 47.9% | Haley | 13.3% |
| Wayne County | 166,172 | Rubio | 36.1% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Macomb County | 128,597 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 27.4% |
| Kent County | 90,924 | Rubio | 52.7% | Haley | 14.1% |
| Genesee County | 52,060 | Trump Jr. | 33.0% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Ottawa County | 48,684 | Rubio | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Washtenaw County | 48,121 | Rubio | 55.0% | Haley | 19.6% |
| Livingston County | 37,293 | Rubio | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 19.2% |
| Kalamazoo County | 34,202 | Rubio | 48.4% | Haley | 13.2% |
| Ingham County | 33,064 | Rubio | 49.0% | Haley | 13.4% |
| St. Clair County | 27,803 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 20.9% |
| Monroe County | 25,522 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Rubio | 25.4% |
| Saginaw County | 24,876 | Trump Jr. | 34.1% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Muskegon County | 23,366 | Trump Jr. | 32.5% | Rubio | 28.4% |
| Jackson County | 22,342 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 25.5% |
| Berrien County | 21,015 | Rubio | 31.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Allegan County | 20,180 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Rubio | 24.9% |
| Calhoun County | 17,528 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 25.5% |
| Eaton County | 16,417 | Rubio | 32.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Bay County | 16,402 | Trump Jr. | 32.5% | Rubio | 29.0% |
| Lapeer County | 16,387 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | Rubio | 16.6% |
| Grand Traverse County | 16,330 | Rubio | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 16.2% |
| Lenawee County | 15,115 | Trump Jr. | 39.4% | Rubio | 22.5% |
| Midland County | 13,547 | Rubio | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| Clinton County | 13,231 | Rubio | 37.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Shiawassee County | 11,298 | Trump Jr. | 40.8% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Barry County | 11,197 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Rubio | 21.9% |
| Van Buren County | 10,934 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | Rubio | 28.3% |
| Montcalm County | 10,080 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Marquette County | 9,701 | Rubio | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.1% |
| Ionia County | 9,543 | Trump Jr. | 45.8% | Rubio | 17.4% |
| Tuscola County | 9,161 | Trump Jr. | 52.6% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Newaygo County | 8,677 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| St. Joseph County | 8,370 | Trump Jr. | 48.8% | Rubio | 15.5% |
| Isabella County | 7,862 | Rubio | 33.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Cass County | 7,846 | Trump Jr. | 46.4% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Hillsdale County | 7,661 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Sanilac County | 7,110 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Mecosta County | 6,277 | Trump Jr. | 42.6% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Branch County | 6,223 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Delta County | 6,131 | Trump Jr. | 46.2% | Rubio | 17.3% |
| Emmet County | 6,034 | Rubio | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Huron County | 5,572 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Wexford County | 5,572 | Trump Jr. | 45.9% | Rubio | 17.5% |
| Gratiot County | 5,492 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | Rubio | 16.4% |
| Houghton County | 5,116 | Rubio | 33.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Clare County | 4,999 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Mason County | 4,918 | Trump Jr. | 36.9% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Alpena County | 4,803 | Trump Jr. | 47.3% | Rubio | 16.7% |
| Charlevoix County | 4,778 | Rubio | 32.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Chippewa County | 4,686 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | Rubio | 15.2% |
| Antrim County | 4,667 | Trump Jr. | 31.6% | Rubio | 29.1% |
| Otsego County | 4,616 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | Rubio | 20.7% |
| Cheboygan County | 4,607 | Trump Jr. | 44.2% | Rubio | 18.6% |
| Gladwin County | 4,552 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Roscommon County | 4,538 | Trump Jr. | 49.4% | Rubio | 15.0% |
| Dickinson County | 4,433 | Trump Jr. | 43.3% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Leelanau County | 4,433 | Rubio | 50.0% | Haley | 13.4% |
| Iosco County | 4,399 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | Rubio | 15.3% |
| Oceana County | 4,214 | Trump Jr. | 44.2% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Manistee County | 4,032 | Trump Jr. | 38.0% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Osceola County | 3,992 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Ogemaw County | 3,721 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Menominee County | 3,719 | Trump Jr. | 48.8% | Rubio | 15.5% |
| Kalkaska County | 3,427 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Benzie County | 3,368 | Rubio | 36.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Missaukee County | 2,881 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Arenac County | 2,690 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Presque Isle County | 2,438 | Trump Jr. | 47.1% | Rubio | 16.9% |
| Crawford County | 2,424 | Trump Jr. | 48.5% | Rubio | 15.7% |
| Gogebic County | 2,209 | Trump Jr. | 39.9% | Rubio | 22.4% |
| Alcona County | 2,193 | Trump Jr. | 52.3% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Iron County | 1,956 | Trump Jr. | 45.8% | Rubio | 17.6% |
| Montmorency County | 1,904 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Lake County | 1,899 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Mackinac County | 1,846 | Trump Jr. | 51.2% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Oscoda County | 1,542 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Alger County | 1,363 | Trump Jr. | 46.5% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Schoolcraft County | 1,355 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Baraga County | 1,132 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Ontonagon County | 1,070 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Luce County | 845 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Keweenaw County | 427 | Rubio | 35.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |