2028 forecast · Hawaii · Republican primary
Hawaii Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 42.3% | 8,710 | 76% | 40.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 22.2% | 4,570 | 19% | 11.7% |
| Rubio | 15.0% | 3,090 | 1% | 7.4% |
| DeSantis | 7.9% | 1,624 | 4% | 9.1% |
| Haley | 1.9% | 383 | <1% | 0.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 314 | <1% | 3.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Hawaii votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in HawaiiBlack 0.8%, Hispanic 6%, Asian and other 36.8%, under 30 7.3%, 65 and up 40.1%, college graduates 46.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 15,708 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 20,576 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 12,910 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Hawaii County | 3,600 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Maui County | 2,755 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Kauai County | 1,311 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 39.1% | 8,040 | 76% | 21.1% |
| DeSantis | 20.4% | 4,187 | 17% | 16.3% |
| Rubio | 20.2% | 4,162 | 5% | 13.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.0% | 1,035 | <1% | 6.7% |
| Haley | 4.3% | 887 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Cruz | 0.9% | 182 | 1% | 7.3% |
| Carlson | 0.5% | 92 | 1% | 3.9% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 68 | <1% | 3.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Hawaii votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in HawaiiBlack 0.8%, Hispanic 6%, Asian and other 36.8%, under 30 7.3%, 65 and up 40.1%, college graduates 46.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 15,708 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 20,576 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu County | 12,910 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Hawaii County | 3,600 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | DeSantis | 19.8% |
| Maui County | 2,755 | Trump Jr. | 37.7% | Rubio | 22.2% |
| Kauai County | 1,311 | Trump Jr. | 45.5% | DeSantis | 19.8% |