2028 forecast · Massachusetts · Republican primary
Massachusetts Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 46.2% | 316,918 | 78% | 38.1% |
| Vance | 26.6% | 182,715 | 18% | 24.9% |
| Haley | 6.3% | 42,979 | 4% | 8.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 6.0% | 41,281 | <1% | 2.8% |
| DeSantis | 4.1% | 27,927 | <1% | 4.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 11,669 | <1% | 3.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Massachusetts votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MassachusettsBlack 1.3%, Hispanic 3.8%, Asian and other 3.2%, under 30 9.7%, 65 and up 31.2%, college graduates 57.2%, women 44.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 637,703 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 686,478 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 155,276 | Rubio | 55.8% | Vance | 18.6% |
| Worcester County | 87,478 | Rubio | 39.6% | Vance | 32.2% |
| Essex County | 82,038 | Rubio | 47.8% | Vance | 25.9% |
| Norfolk County | 74,848 | Rubio | 52.2% | Vance | 21.8% |
| Plymouth County | 61,861 | Rubio | 38.4% | Vance | 33.3% |
| Bristol County | 59,374 | Vance | 38.3% | Rubio | 31.1% |
| Suffolk County | 50,891 | Rubio | 53.2% | Vance | 20.2% |
| Hampden County | 42,574 | Vance | 36.1% | Rubio | 32.3% |
| Barnstable County | 29,921 | Rubio | 45.0% | Vance | 28.9% |
| Hampshire County | 16,623 | Rubio | 55.1% | Vance | 19.2% |
| Berkshire County | 13,482 | Rubio | 44.8% | Vance | 29.1% |
| Franklin County | 8,383 | Rubio | 44.7% | Vance | 29.4% |
| Dukes County | 2,327 | Rubio | 52.8% | Vance | 22.3% |
| Nantucket County | 1,402 | Rubio | 54.0% | Vance | 20.6% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 54.2% | 372,259 | 94% | 51.8% |
| Haley | 13.8% | 94,650 | 6% | 10.8% |
| Trump Jr. | 8.3% | 56,792 | <1% | 4.1% |
| DeSantis | 8.1% | 55,867 | <1% | 6.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.2% | 35,834 | <1% | 5.1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.6% | 4,276 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 2,537 | <1% | 3.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Massachusetts votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MassachusettsBlack 1.3%, Hispanic 3.8%, Asian and other 3.2%, under 30 9.7%, 65 and up 31.2%, college graduates 57.2%, women 44.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 637,703 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 686,478 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | 155,276 | Rubio | 59.3% | Haley | 18.0% |
| Worcester County | 87,478 | Rubio | 51.1% | Trump Jr. | 11.3% |
| Essex County | 82,038 | Rubio | 56.8% | Haley | 12.7% |
| Norfolk County | 74,848 | Rubio | 57.9% | Haley | 16.8% |
| Plymouth County | 61,861 | Rubio | 50.1% | Trump Jr. | 11.6% |
| Bristol County | 59,374 | Rubio | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 18.1% |
| Suffolk County | 50,891 | Rubio | 57.8% | Haley | 15.5% |
| Hampden County | 42,574 | Rubio | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 18.3% |
| Barnstable County | 29,921 | Rubio | 55.7% | Haley | 13.6% |
| Hampshire County | 16,623 | Rubio | 58.8% | Haley | 17.8% |
| Berkshire County | 13,482 | Rubio | 55.7% | Haley | 13.0% |
| Franklin County | 8,383 | Rubio | 55.9% | Haley | 12.8% |
| Dukes County | 2,327 | Rubio | 59.7% | Haley | 16.4% |
| Nantucket County | 1,402 | Rubio | 59.6% | Haley | 16.0% |