2028 forecast · West Virginia · Republican primary

West Virginia Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 72% of runs

59.6%Vance's projected share

219,941Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Vance	59.6%	131,173	72%	43.8%
Rubio	23.3%	51,217	18%	6.0%
Trump Jr.	7.1%	15,590	9%	18.0%
DeSantis	0.9%	1,965	1%	4.2%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before West Virginia votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in West Virginia

America First46%

Populist working class18%

Suburban professional14%

Libertarian9%

Republican leaning independents8%

Black 0.5%, Hispanic 0.6%, Asian and other 0.7%, under 30 7.5%, 65 and up 40.1%, college graduates 30.8%, women 45%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 204,061 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 219,941 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Kanawha County	19,543	Vance	57.3%	Rubio	26.1%
Berkeley County	15,483	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	24.0%
Wood County	10,825	Vance	59.8%	Rubio	23.2%
Monongalia County	10,544	Vance	50.4%	Rubio	34.0%
Cabell County	9,363	Vance	56.7%	Rubio	26.9%
Raleigh County	9,158	Vance	61.0%	Rubio	21.7%
Harrison County	8,498	Vance	59.9%	Rubio	23.0%
Putnam County	8,158	Vance	59.1%	Rubio	24.0%
Jefferson County	7,644	Vance	55.4%	Rubio	28.2%
Mercer County	7,135	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.1%
Marion County	6,760	Vance	59.2%	Rubio	23.9%
Ohio County	5,053	Vance	56.8%	Rubio	26.7%
Wayne County	4,774	Vance	61.3%	Rubio	21.3%
Fayette County	4,425	Vance	61.3%	Rubio	21.3%
Preston County	4,305	Vance	61.7%	Rubio	20.7%
Greenbrier County	4,295	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	21.9%
Mineral County	4,012	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.2%
Jackson County	3,951	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.1%
Marshall County	3,940	Vance	60.7%	Rubio	22.1%
Hancock County	3,808	Vance	60.7%	Rubio	22.1%
Logan County	3,671	Vance	62.2%	Rubio	20.2%
Randolph County	3,347	Vance	61.2%	Rubio	21.4%
Hampshire County	3,324	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.7%
Mason County	3,248	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.6%
Nicholas County	3,150	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.2%
Upshur County	3,004	Vance	61.7%	Rubio	20.9%
Brooke County	2,836	Vance	60.1%	Rubio	22.8%
Mingo County	2,817	Vance	62.5%	Rubio	19.6%
Morgan County	2,785	Vance	61.6%	Rubio	20.9%
Boone County	2,517	Vance	62.0%	Rubio	20.4%
Wyoming County	2,517	Vance	62.4%	Rubio	19.9%
Lincoln County	2,272	Vance	62.4%	Rubio	19.9%
Taylor County	2,189	Vance	61.2%	Rubio	21.4%
Lewis County	2,177	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.7%
Monroe County	2,004	Vance	62.1%	Rubio	20.3%
Barbour County	1,976	Vance	62.1%	Rubio	20.2%
Hardy County	1,958	Vance	62.0%	Rubio	20.4%
Grant County	1,904	Vance	62.5%	Rubio	19.7%
Wetzel County	1,887	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.7%
Roane County	1,680	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.7%
McDowell County	1,620	Vance	62.5%	Rubio	19.7%
Braxton County	1,557	Vance	62.0%	Rubio	20.4%
Summers County	1,546	Vance	61.7%	Rubio	20.8%
Ritchie County	1,355	Vance	62.3%	Rubio	20.0%
Tyler County	1,172	Vance	62.2%	Rubio	20.2%
Pocahontas County	1,161	Vance	61.5%	Rubio	21.1%
Tucker County	1,087	Vance	61.1%	Rubio	21.6%
Pendleton County	1,050	Vance	62.0%	Rubio	20.4%
Pleasants County	1,045	Vance	61.9%	Rubio	20.6%
Clay County	1,023	Vance	62.1%	Rubio	20.2%
Doddridge County	975	Vance	62.3%	Rubio	20.0%
Webster County	962	Vance	62.4%	Rubio	20.0%
Calhoun County	939	Vance	62.4%	Rubio	19.8%
Wirt County	835	Vance	61.8%	Rubio	20.7%
Gilmer County	677	Vance	61.7%	Rubio	20.7%

Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 47% of runs

35.9%Trump Jr.'s projected share