2024 national presidential average

Each poll's weight is its sample size, voter screen, pollster grade and age, with a 15.8 day half life, and those weights are the kernel of a robust LOWESS fit: a local line read at the day itself, with three bisquare passes that weigh down any poll far from the rest. No single poll can carry more than 15 percent. Gold Standard pollsters, On Point Polling, Big Data Poll, The Honest Poll, Emerson, Cygnal, Quantus Insights, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, carry the top grade. Rasmussen Reports and ActiVote are not counted. Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage are marked Lean R and Impact Research Lean D. The tables show every poll as published; the average counts a lean firm's poll moved the other way by its measured lean against other polls of the same races, and the chart shows that move as a hollow dot for the poll as published joined to the filled dot the average counts: Trafalgar 3.8 points right over 35 polls, InsiderAdvantage 4.6 points right over 42 polls, Impact Research 0.0 points left over 0 polls.