2028 forecast · Delaware · Republican primary
Delaware Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 52.5% | 43,642 | 60% | 35.8% |
| Rubio | 31.4% | 26,041 | 33% | 22.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 6.1% | 5,045 | 7% | 7.6% |
| DeSantis | 0.9% | 776 | 1% | 5.8% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Delaware votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in DelawareBlack 5%, Hispanic 3.5%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 7.5%, 65 and up 38.1%, college graduates 45.4%, women 44.4%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 69,892 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 83,057 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle County | 41,671 | Vance | 48.7% | Rubio | 35.7% |
| Sussex County | 27,189 | Vance | 55.9% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Kent County | 14,197 | Vance | 57.2% | Rubio | 25.9% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 58.7% | 48,771 | 75% | 35.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 26.6% | 22,097 | 19% | 13.4% |
| DeSantis | 5.2% | 4,354 | 5% | 9.8% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | 248 | <1% | 6.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Delaware votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in DelawareBlack 5%, Hispanic 3.5%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 7.5%, 65 and up 38.1%, college graduates 45.4%, women 44.4%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 69,892 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 83,057 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle County | 41,671 | Rubio | 63.8% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Sussex County | 27,189 | Rubio | 54.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Kent County | 14,197 | Rubio | 51.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |