2028 forecast · Utah · Republican primary
Utah Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 32.8% | 57,063 | 48% | 29.2% |
| Rubio | 32.6% | 56,662 | 48% | 25.6% |
| Trump Jr. | 13.4% | 23,376 | 2% | 7.2% |
| DeSantis | 6.7% | 11,558 | 2% | 7.4% |
| Haley | 3.6% | 6,271 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 2,898 | <1% | 3.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Utah votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in UtahBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 9.7%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 41.4%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 191,330 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 173,870 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | 51,241 | Rubio | 50.1% | Vance | 22.7% |
| Utah County | 37,572 | Vance | 35.4% | Rubio | 30.1% |
| Davis County | 19,402 | Vance | 34.6% | Rubio | 31.7% |
| Washington County | 12,966 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 19.8% |
| Weber County | 12,959 | Vance | 36.6% | Rubio | 25.6% |
| Cache County | 7,385 | Vance | 35.6% | Rubio | 30.7% |
| Tooele County | 4,260 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Box Elder County | 4,055 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Iron County | 3,809 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Summit County | 2,711 | Rubio | 55.1% | Vance | 18.5% |
| Uintah County | 2,326 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Wasatch County | 2,219 | Rubio | 37.0% | Vance | 31.6% |
| Sanpete County | 1,885 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Sevier County | 1,660 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Duchesne County | 1,346 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Carbon County | 1,208 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Juab County | 993 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Millard County | 979 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Morgan County | 945 | Vance | 42.7% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Emery County | 758 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Kane County | 574 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| San Juan County | 543 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Grand County | 535 | Rubio | 35.7% | Vance | 32.9% |
| Beaver County | 493 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Garfield County | 392 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| Wayne County | 214 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Rich County | 213 | Vance | 43.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Piute County | 152 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Daggett County | 75 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 40.0% | 69,505 | 85% | 36.2% |
| Trump Jr. | 20.9% | 36,378 | 8% | 11.2% |
| DeSantis | 14.7% | 25,576 | 6% | 11.2% |
| Haley | 7.9% | 13,731 | <1% | 4.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.4% | 9,369 | <1% | 5.4% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 1,372 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 983 | <1% | 4.7% |
| Rand Paul | 0.4% | 654 | <1% | 3.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Utah votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in UtahBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 9.7%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 41.4%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 191,330 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 173,870 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | 51,241 | Rubio | 57.3% | Haley | 11.1% |
| Utah County | 37,572 | Rubio | 39.3% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Davis County | 19,402 | Rubio | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Washington County | 12,966 | Trump Jr. | 33.7% | Rubio | 24.4% |
| Weber County | 12,959 | Rubio | 33.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Cache County | 7,385 | Rubio | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 18.7% |
| Tooele County | 4,260 | Trump Jr. | 40.0% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| Box Elder County | 4,055 | Trump Jr. | 43.3% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Iron County | 3,809 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 20.0% |
| Summit County | 2,711 | Rubio | 58.7% | Haley | 16.2% |
| Uintah County | 2,326 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Wasatch County | 2,219 | Rubio | 46.4% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Sanpete County | 1,885 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Sevier County | 1,660 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Duchesne County | 1,346 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Carbon County | 1,208 | Trump Jr. | 44.5% | DeSantis | 18.5% |
| Juab County | 993 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Millard County | 979 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Morgan County | 945 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Rubio | 25.8% |
| Emery County | 758 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Kane County | 574 | Trump Jr. | 38.5% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| San Juan County | 543 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Grand County | 535 | Rubio | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 14.9% |
| Beaver County | 493 | Trump Jr. | 49.5% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Garfield County | 392 | Trump Jr. | 41.2% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Wayne County | 214 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Rich County | 213 | Trump Jr. | 47.1% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Piute County | 152 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Daggett County | 75 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 17.3% |