2028 forecast · New Jersey · Republican primary

New Jersey Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 55% of runs

51.8%Vance's projected share

600,229Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Vance	51.8%	310,783	55%	34.2%
Rubio	32.2%	193,293	37%	24.1%
Trump Jr.	6.0%	35,990	6%	7.0%
DeSantis	0.9%	5,594	1%	6.2%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Jersey votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New Jersey

America First38%

Suburban professional18%

Libertarian14%

Populist working class13%

Republican leaning independents9%

Moderate independents3%

Black 3.1%, Hispanic 9.1%, Asian and other 4.4%, under 30 8.6%, 65 and up 32.5%, college graduates 53.7%, women 44.4%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 447,952 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 600,229 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Bergen County	65,790	Vance	50.0%	Rubio	34.2%
Ocean County	58,533	Vance	57.1%	Rubio	26.2%
Monmouth County	57,006	Vance	50.7%	Rubio	33.6%
Middlesex County	47,418	Vance	53.6%	Rubio	30.0%
Morris County	43,797	Vance	48.4%	Rubio	36.2%
Essex County	31,949	Vance	49.6%	Rubio	34.4%
Camden County	31,696	Vance	51.6%	Rubio	32.4%
Burlington County	30,873	Vance	51.6%	Rubio	32.5%
Union County	29,690	Vance	51.0%	Rubio	32.9%
Passaic County	29,469	Vance	53.7%	Rubio	29.7%
Hudson County	28,298	Vance	46.0%	Rubio	38.6%
Gloucester County	24,630	Vance	53.4%	Rubio	30.4%
Somerset County	24,019	Vance	49.0%	Rubio	35.5%
Mercer County	20,030	Vance	49.9%	Rubio	34.4%
Atlantic County	18,493	Vance	55.6%	Rubio	27.8%
Sussex County	14,402	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.7%
Hunterdon County	12,944	Vance	48.5%	Rubio	36.1%
Warren County	9,831	Vance	55.0%	Rubio	28.7%
Cape May County	8,811	Vance	54.9%	Rubio	28.9%
Cumberland County	7,746	Vance	57.9%	Rubio	25.0%
Salem County	4,804	Vance	57.8%	Rubio	25.3%

RubioFavorite, wins 77% of runs

59.6%Rubio's projected share