2028 forecast · Iowa · Republican primary
Iowa Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 79% of runs
34.3%Vance's projected share
181,233Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 34.3% | 62,120 | 79% | 35.4% |
| Rubio | 21.2% | 38,344 | 20% | 21.7% |
| Trump Jr. | 9.1% | 16,508 | 1% | 8.8% |
| DeSantis | 5.6% | 10,104 | <1% | 5.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.4% | 7,899 | <1% | 4.1% |
| Haley | 3.0% | 5,341 | <1% | 2.8% |
| Rand Paul | 2.1% | 3,742 | <1% | 2.0% |
| Cruz | 1.5% | 2,765 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Carlson | 1.5% | 2,771 | <1% | 1.5% |
| MassieHYP | 1.5% | 2,764 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 0.8% | 1,521 | <1% | 0.8% |
| KempHYP | 0.8% | 1,499 | <1% | 0.8% |
| GreeneHYP | 0.8% | 1,414 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.6% | 1,151 | <1% | 0.6% |
| DonaldsHYP | 0.5% | 958 | <1% | 0.5% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.5% | 838 | <1% | 0.4% |
| NoemHYP | 0.4% | 802 | <1% | 0.4% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.4% | 794 | <1% | 0.4% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.4% | 753 | <1% | 0.4% |
| CottonHYP | 0.4% | 737 | <1% | 0.4% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.4% | 716 | <1% | 0.4% |
| BannonHYP | 0.4% | 710 | <1% | 0.4% |
| Youngkin | 0.4% | 660 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Iowa votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IowaBlack 0.6%, Hispanic 2.1%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 9.7%, 65 and up 32.6%, college graduates 37.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 186,932 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 181,233 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County | 25,528 | Rubio | 42.6% | Vance | 21.8% |
| Linn County | 12,294 | Vance | 31.1% | Rubio | 30.3% |
| Scott County | 9,304 | Vance | 33.1% | Rubio | 26.8% |
| Johnson County | 7,987 | Rubio | 46.3% | Vance | 16.2% |
| Dallas County | 6,691 | Rubio | 34.9% | Vance | 27.2% |
| Black Hawk County | 6,260 | Vance | 34.6% | Rubio | 22.7% |
| Dubuque County | 5,613 | Vance | 36.6% | Rubio | 21.2% |
| Pottawattamie County | 4,940 | Vance | 39.5% | Rubio | 13.7% |
| Story County | 4,894 | Rubio | 36.2% | Vance | 22.6% |
| Woodbury County | 4,713 | Vance | 38.0% | Rubio | 12.9% |
| Warren County | 3,686 | Vance | 37.5% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Sioux County | 2,665 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 15.3% |
| Clinton County | 2,627 | Vance | 40.5% | Rubio | 12.4% |
| Cerro Gordo County | 2,465 | Vance | 40.0% | Rubio | 14.4% |
| Marion County | 2,335 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 13.0% |
| Jasper County | 2,293 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 13.5% |
| Muscatine County | 2,159 | Vance | 38.1% | Rubio | 14.8% |
| Des Moines County | 2,034 | Vance | 40.4% | Rubio | 12.4% |
| Webster County | 1,909 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 13.9% |
| Marshall County | 1,875 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 14.1% |
| Lee County | 1,837 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 13.3% |
| Plymouth County | 1,795 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 17.0% |
| Boone County | 1,734 | Vance | 39.6% | Rubio | 16.0% |
| Benton County | 1,711 | Vance | 40.9% | Rubio | 11.8% |
| Wapello County | 1,672 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 15.3% |
| Bremer County | 1,630 | Vance | 37.8% | Rubio | 19.1% |
| Mahaska County | 1,379 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 15.3% |
| Carroll County | 1,348 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Dickinson County | 1,346 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 11.6% |
| Washington County | 1,312 | Vance | 39.9% | Rubio | 14.1% |
| Winneshiek County | 1,279 | Vance | 38.1% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Jackson County | 1,258 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 14.8% |
| Jones County | 1,240 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 12.8% |
| Buchanan County | 1,237 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 12.5% |
| Delaware County | 1,220 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 14.6% |
| Madison County | 1,215 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 11.9% |
| Cedar County | 1,200 | Vance | 41.1% | Rubio | 12.7% |
| Fayette County | 1,130 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 14.1% |
| Henry County | 1,122 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 13.8% |
| Iowa County | 1,111 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 12.0% |
| Clayton County | 1,099 | Vance | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 17.5% |
| Poweshiek County | 1,093 | Vance | 39.4% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Clay County | 1,043 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 12.8% |
| Kossuth County | 1,021 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 15.9% |
| Hardin County | 1,007 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 14.5% |
| Mills County | 998 | Vance | 40.6% | Rubio | 13.2% |
| O'Brien County | 992 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 17.9% |
| Butler County | 988 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 16.1% |
| Lyon County | 975 | Vance | 39.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Harrison County | 973 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |
| Tama County | 970 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |
| Hamilton County | 885 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 13.7% |
| Page County | 881 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 16.3% |
| Grundy County | 871 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 12.3% |
| Cass County | 866 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 14.8% |
| Buena Vista County | 859 | Vance | 36.7% | Trump Jr. | 14.8% |
| Jefferson County | 857 | Vance | 36.7% | Rubio | 22.4% |
| Floyd County | 855 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 15.1% |
| Allamakee County | 854 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 14.3% |
| Crawford County | 805 | Vance | 37.2% | Trump Jr. | 17.8% |
| Appanoose County | 797 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.4% |
| Shelby County | 793 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 14.7% |
| Guthrie County | 779 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 13.4% |
| Cherokee County | 746 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 15.6% |
| Chickasaw County | 742 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 14.6% |
| Hancock County | 737 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 17.1% |
| Union County | 709 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 13.6% |
| Sac County | 693 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.8% |
| Wright County | 676 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 13.9% |
| Mitchell County | 670 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 12.6% |
| Keokuk County | 653 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.6% |
| Winnebago County | 644 | Vance | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 12.5% |
| Humboldt County | 637 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 17.5% |
| Louisa County | 624 | Vance | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.1% |
| Calhoun County | 623 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 16.3% |
| Palo Alto County | 605 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 17.4% |
| Montgomery County | 601 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 15.7% |
| Franklin County | 598 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 16.3% |
| Emmet County | 582 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 17.8% |
| Lucas County | 580 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Monona County | 567 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 16.8% |
| Greene County | 566 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 14.5% |
| Howard County | 563 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 14.7% |
| Clarke County | 540 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 18.2% |
| Monroe County | 527 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 16.4% |
| Davis County | 507 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Adair County | 500 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Worth County | 490 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Van Buren County | 469 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.8% |
| Fremont County | 466 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Ida County | 464 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 17.4% |
| Pocahontas County | 459 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Decatur County | 454 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.3% |
| Osceola County | 438 | Vance | 37.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.7% |
| Wayne County | 405 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Taylor County | 400 | Vance | 39.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Audubon County | 387 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 15.5% |
| Ringgold County | 340 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 15.6% |
| Adams County | 262 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 13.9% |
RubioFavorite, wins 88% of runs
31.5%Rubio's projected share
181,233Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 31.5% | 57,062 | 88% | 32.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 15.8% | 28,593 | 10% | 15.9% |
| DeSantis | 9.3% | 16,911 | 2% | 9.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 7.2% | 12,971 | <1% | 6.9% |
| Haley | 4.3% | 7,693 | <1% | 4.0% |
| Rand Paul | 3.3% | 5,996 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Carlson | 2.7% | 4,908 | <1% | 2.7% |
| Cruz | 2.6% | 4,804 | <1% | 2.6% |
| MassieHYP | 2.6% | 4,673 | <1% | 2.5% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 1.5% | 2,645 | <1% | 1.4% |
| GreeneHYP | 1.4% | 2,532 | <1% | 1.3% |
| KempHYP | 1.3% | 2,385 | <1% | 1.2% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 1.1% | 1,904 | <1% | 1.0% |
| DonaldsHYP | 0.9% | 1,667 | <1% | 0.9% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.8% | 1,460 | <1% | 0.8% |
| NoemHYP | 0.8% | 1,398 | <1% | 0.7% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.7% | 1,305 | <1% | 0.7% |
| CottonHYP | 0.7% | 1,262 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BannonHYP | 0.7% | 1,274 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.7% | 1,255 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.7% | 1,217 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Youngkin | 0.6% | 996 | <1% | 0.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Iowa votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IowaBlack 0.6%, Hispanic 2.1%, Asian and other 1.1%, under 30 9.7%, 65 and up 32.6%, college graduates 37.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 186,932 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 181,233 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polk County | 25,528 | Rubio | 55.5% | Haley | 9.9% |
| Linn County | 12,294 | Rubio | 45.4% | DeSantis | 8.1% |
| Scott County | 9,304 | Rubio | 41.5% | DeSantis | 9.5% |
| Johnson County | 7,987 | Rubio | 55.9% | Haley | 14.1% |
| Dallas County | 6,691 | Rubio | 49.1% | Haley | 8.2% |
| Black Hawk County | 6,260 | Rubio | 36.0% | Trump Jr. | 10.8% |
| Dubuque County | 5,613 | Rubio | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 11.6% |
| Pottawattamie County | 4,940 | Rubio | 23.9% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Story County | 4,894 | Rubio | 47.6% | Haley | 9.9% |
| Woodbury County | 4,713 | Rubio | 21.9% | Trump Jr. | 20.3% |
| Warren County | 3,686 | Rubio | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 13.1% |
| Sioux County | 2,665 | Trump Jr. | 26.8% | Rubio | 12.8% |
| Clinton County | 2,627 | Rubio | 22.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Cerro Gordo County | 2,465 | Rubio | 25.3% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Marion County | 2,335 | Rubio | 23.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Jasper County | 2,293 | Trump Jr. | 24.1% | Rubio | 17.9% |
| Muscatine County | 2,159 | Rubio | 25.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Des Moines County | 2,034 | Rubio | 22.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.7% |
| Webster County | 1,909 | Trump Jr. | 24.8% | Rubio | 16.6% |
| Marshall County | 1,875 | Rubio | 23.8% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Lee County | 1,837 | Trump Jr. | 24.0% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Plymouth County | 1,795 | Trump Jr. | 30.1% | Rubio | 11.0% |
| Boone County | 1,734 | Rubio | 28.0% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Benton County | 1,711 | Rubio | 21.3% | Trump Jr. | 21.2% |
| Wapello County | 1,672 | Trump Jr. | 26.8% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Bremer County | 1,630 | Rubio | 32.2% | Trump Jr. | 12.8% |
| Mahaska County | 1,379 | Trump Jr. | 27.6% | Rubio | 13.3% |
| Carroll County | 1,348 | Trump Jr. | 26.2% | Rubio | 15.4% |
| Dickinson County | 1,346 | Trump Jr. | 21.4% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Washington County | 1,312 | Rubio | 24.8% | Trump Jr. | 18.7% |
| Winneshiek County | 1,279 | Rubio | 31.8% | Trump Jr. | 13.5% |
| Jackson County | 1,258 | Trump Jr. | 26.7% | Rubio | 15.3% |
| Jones County | 1,240 | Trump Jr. | 22.9% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Buchanan County | 1,237 | Trump Jr. | 22.6% | Rubio | 20.2% |
| Delaware County | 1,220 | Trump Jr. | 26.6% | Rubio | 15.2% |
| Madison County | 1,215 | Rubio | 21.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Cedar County | 1,200 | Rubio | 22.9% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Fayette County | 1,130 | Trump Jr. | 25.5% | Rubio | 16.3% |
| Henry County | 1,122 | Trump Jr. | 24.9% | Rubio | 16.5% |
| Iowa County | 1,111 | Trump Jr. | 21.8% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Clayton County | 1,099 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 11.2% |
| Poweshiek County | 1,093 | Rubio | 26.0% | Trump Jr. | 17.2% |
| Clay County | 1,043 | Trump Jr. | 23.4% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Kossuth County | 1,021 | Trump Jr. | 28.6% | Rubio | 12.9% |
| Hardin County | 1,007 | Trump Jr. | 26.3% | Rubio | 15.4% |
| Mills County | 998 | Rubio | 23.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.8% |
| O'Brien County | 992 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | DeSantis | 10.5% |
| Butler County | 988 | Trump Jr. | 29.1% | Rubio | 12.4% |
| Lyon County | 975 | Trump Jr. | 34.5% | DeSantis | 9.4% |
| Harrison County | 973 | Trump Jr. | 25.8% | Rubio | 15.7% |
| Tama County | 970 | Trump Jr. | 25.3% | Rubio | 16.6% |
| Hamilton County | 885 | Trump Jr. | 24.6% | Rubio | 17.6% |
| Page County | 881 | Trump Jr. | 29.2% | Rubio | 12.4% |
| Grundy County | 871 | Trump Jr. | 22.3% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Cass County | 866 | Trump Jr. | 27.0% | Rubio | 14.6% |
| Buena Vista County | 859 | Trump Jr. | 24.6% | Rubio | 16.3% |
| Jefferson County | 857 | Rubio | 37.0% | DeSantis | 11.0% |
| Floyd County | 855 | Trump Jr. | 27.1% | Rubio | 15.0% |
| Allamakee County | 854 | Trump Jr. | 25.8% | Rubio | 16.0% |
| Crawford County | 805 | Trump Jr. | 29.6% | Rubio | 12.1% |
| Appanoose County | 797 | Trump Jr. | 29.6% | Rubio | 11.7% |
| Shelby County | 793 | Trump Jr. | 26.7% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Guthrie County | 779 | Trump Jr. | 24.1% | Rubio | 17.4% |
| Cherokee County | 746 | Trump Jr. | 28.3% | Rubio | 13.1% |
| Chickasaw County | 742 | Trump Jr. | 26.6% | Rubio | 15.3% |
| Hancock County | 737 | Trump Jr. | 30.6% | Rubio | 11.1% |
| Union County | 709 | Trump Jr. | 24.5% | Rubio | 17.2% |
| Sac County | 693 | Trump Jr. | 30.4% | Rubio | 11.2% |
| Wright County | 676 | Trump Jr. | 24.6% | Rubio | 17.2% |
| Mitchell County | 670 | Trump Jr. | 23.0% | Rubio | 19.7% |
| Keokuk County | 653 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | DeSantis | 9.8% |
| Winnebago County | 644 | Trump Jr. | 22.5% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Humboldt County | 637 | Trump Jr. | 31.1% | Rubio | 10.5% |
| Louisa County | 624 | Trump Jr. | 31.0% | Rubio | 11.0% |
| Calhoun County | 623 | Trump Jr. | 29.4% | Rubio | 11.8% |
| Palo Alto County | 605 | Trump Jr. | 31.0% | Rubio | 10.6% |
| Montgomery County | 601 | Trump Jr. | 28.4% | Rubio | 13.1% |
| Franklin County | 598 | Trump Jr. | 28.8% | Rubio | 13.2% |
| Emmet County | 582 | Trump Jr. | 31.1% | Rubio | 10.5% |
| Lucas County | 580 | Trump Jr. | 33.2% | DeSantis | 9.7% |
| Monona County | 567 | Trump Jr. | 30.3% | Rubio | 11.4% |
| Greene County | 566 | Trump Jr. | 26.3% | Rubio | 15.7% |
| Howard County | 563 | Trump Jr. | 26.7% | Rubio | 15.7% |
| Clarke County | 540 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 10.7% |
| Monroe County | 527 | Trump Jr. | 29.7% | Rubio | 11.9% |
| Davis County | 507 | Trump Jr. | 34.0% | DeSantis | 9.4% |
| Adair County | 500 | Trump Jr. | 29.6% | Rubio | 12.0% |
| Worth County | 490 | Trump Jr. | 26.1% | Rubio | 16.4% |
| Van Buren County | 469 | Trump Jr. | 33.4% | DeSantis | 9.9% |
| Fremont County | 466 | Trump Jr. | 29.7% | Rubio | 12.0% |
| Ida County | 464 | Trump Jr. | 31.1% | DeSantis | 10.4% |
| Pocahontas County | 459 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | DeSantis | 10.0% |
| Decatur County | 454 | Trump Jr. | 28.9% | Rubio | 11.7% |
| Osceola County | 438 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | DeSantis | 9.0% |
| Wayne County | 405 | Trump Jr. | 34.9% | DeSantis | 9.4% |
| Taylor County | 400 | Trump Jr. | 34.5% | DeSantis | 9.6% |
| Audubon County | 387 | Trump Jr. | 28.2% | Rubio | 13.8% |
| Ringgold County | 340 | Trump Jr. | 28.4% | Rubio | 12.7% |
| Adams County | 262 | Trump Jr. | 25.6% | Rubio | 15.9% |