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2028 forecast · New Mexico · Republican primary

New Mexico Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 62% of runs
52.8%Vance's projected share
136,607Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance52.8%72,15762%28.6%
Rubio30.7%41,97828%22.0%
Trump Jr.6.4%8,7379%12.4%
DeSantis1.0%1,3141%6.9%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Mexico votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New Mexico
America First34%
Suburban professional21%
Populist working class17%
Republican leaning independents11%
Libertarian10%
Moderate independents3%

Black 0.6%, Hispanic 27.6%, Asian and other 5%, under 30 9.9%, 65 and up 33.7%, college graduates 41.7%, women 45%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 104,627 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 136,607 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Bernalillo County43,520Vance47.3%Rubio37.1%
Doña Ana County12,647Vance50.8%Rubio32.9%
Sandoval County11,536Vance54.9%Rubio28.5%
Santa Fe County11,036Vance45.7%Rubio39.0%
San Juan County7,913Vance61.5%Rubio20.7%
Valencia County5,480Vance56.8%Rubio26.0%
Eddy County4,701Vance60.2%Rubio22.2%
Lea County4,436Vance60.4%Rubio21.8%
Chaves County4,227Vance59.7%Rubio22.7%
Otero County4,011Vance58.9%Rubio23.8%
Curry County2,726Vance59.1%Rubio23.5%
McKinley County2,322Vance62.0%Rubio20.1%
Taos County2,165Vance48.8%Rubio35.5%
Grant County2,124Vance55.3%Rubio28.0%
Rio Arriba County2,098Vance56.7%Rubio25.9%
Lincoln County1,818Vance59.1%Rubio23.8%
Los Alamos County1,755Vance45.1%Rubio39.9%
San Miguel County1,485Vance52.3%Rubio30.8%
Luna County1,334Vance59.1%Rubio23.3%
Torrance County1,275Vance60.3%Rubio22.1%
Roosevelt County1,225Vance59.4%Rubio23.2%
Cibola County1,134Vance60.5%Rubio21.8%
Socorro County1,097Vance58.1%Rubio24.5%
Colfax County946Vance57.3%Rubio25.7%
Sierra County946Vance60.5%Rubio22.1%
Quay County675Vance60.4%Rubio22.1%
Catron County429Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Mora County357Vance51.4%Rubio31.9%
Union County325Vance60.6%Rubio21.8%
Hidalgo County318Vance58.9%Rubio23.6%
Guadalupe County297Vance56.6%Rubio25.8%
De Baca County175Vance61.0%Rubio21.0%
Harding County74Vance59.7%Rubio22.8%