2028 forecast · Rhode Island · Republican primary
Rhode Island Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 52.0% | 41,121 | 56% | 37.1% |
| Rubio | 32.2% | 25,480 | 38% | 23.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 5.8% | 4,616 | 5% | 5.7% |
| DeSantis | 0.9% | 728 | 1% | 5.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Rhode Island votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in Rhode IslandBlack 1%, Hispanic 4.8%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 9.8%, 65 and up 32.3%, college graduates 48.9%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 62,331 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 79,141 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | 40,768 | Vance | 53.3% | Rubio | 30.6% |
| Kent County | 15,127 | Vance | 54.1% | Rubio | 29.8% |
| Washington County | 12,059 | Vance | 48.8% | Rubio | 35.9% |
| Newport County | 6,792 | Vance | 47.7% | Rubio | 37.1% |
| Bristol County | 4,395 | Vance | 47.4% | Rubio | 37.4% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 60.9% | 48,208 | 78% | 38.1% |
| Trump Jr. | 24.6% | 19,432 | 17% | 9.9% |
| DeSantis | 5.1% | 4,034 | 5% | 9.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | 239 | <1% | 8.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Rhode Island votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in Rhode IslandBlack 1%, Hispanic 4.8%, Asian and other 1.9%, under 30 9.8%, 65 and up 32.3%, college graduates 48.9%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 62,331 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 79,141 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | 40,768 | Rubio | 58.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Kent County | 15,127 | Rubio | 58.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Washington County | 12,059 | Rubio | 65.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| Newport County | 6,792 | Rubio | 66.4% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Bristol County | 4,395 | Rubio | 66.6% | Trump Jr. | 19.2% |