2028 forecast · Illinois · Republican primary
Illinois Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 50% of runs
33.5%Vance's projected share
1,463,365Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 33.5% | 489,542 | 50% | 32.9% |
| Rubio | 32.5% | 475,593 | 47% | 22.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 13.8% | 201,362 | 2% | 7.4% |
| DeSantis | 5.7% | 82,876 | 1% | 6.3% |
| Haley | 3.8% | 55,248 | <1% | 4.0% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 25,431 | <1% | 4.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Illinois votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IllinoisBlack 3.1%, Hispanic 5.9%, Asian and other 2.7%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 33.1%, college graduates 45.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,449,748 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,463,365 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook County | 456,274 | Rubio | 47.3% | Vance | 24.1% |
| DuPage County | 119,133 | Rubio | 42.7% | Vance | 28.7% |
| Will County | 87,134 | Vance | 36.4% | Rubio | 29.1% |
| Lake County | 80,930 | Rubio | 45.3% | Vance | 26.6% |
| Kane County | 60,904 | Rubio | 38.8% | Vance | 30.7% |
| McHenry County | 47,286 | Vance | 36.5% | Rubio | 31.5% |
| Madison County | 38,309 | Vance | 41.4% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Winnebago County | 32,557 | Vance | 41.0% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| St. Clair County | 29,036 | Vance | 40.1% | Rubio | 20.8% |
| Sangamon County | 27,350 | Vance | 39.7% | Rubio | 26.4% |
| McLean County | 23,478 | Rubio | 34.6% | Vance | 34.2% |
| Champaign County | 21,967 | Rubio | 35.6% | Vance | 32.8% |
| Tazewell County | 21,059 | Vance | 43.7% | Rubio | 19.2% |
| Peoria County | 20,466 | Vance | 39.2% | Rubio | 25.8% |
| Kendall County | 18,319 | Vance | 34.0% | Rubio | 33.6% |
| Rock Island County | 16,668 | Vance | 40.3% | Rubio | 23.2% |
| LaSalle County | 15,666 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Kankakee County | 13,556 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| DeKalb County | 13,026 | Vance | 37.9% | Rubio | 27.0% |
| Macon County | 12,668 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Adams County | 10,585 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.9% |
| Williamson County | 10,544 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Vermilion County | 8,962 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Grundy County | 8,367 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Ogle County | 8,080 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Whiteside County | 7,830 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Henry County | 7,673 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Macoupin County | 7,587 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Boone County | 7,228 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.6% |
| Woodford County | 7,004 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 19.3% |
| Effingham County | 6,857 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Monroe County | 6,829 | Vance | 42.4% | Rubio | 23.1% |
| Coles County | 6,585 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.4% |
| Clinton County | 6,575 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.1% |
| Knox County | 6,253 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Stephenson County | 6,076 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Franklin County | 6,034 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Jackson County | 5,864 | Vance | 39.8% | Rubio | 23.9% |
| Marion County | 5,610 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Livingston County | 5,457 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Jefferson County | 5,451 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Christian County | 5,175 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Bureau County | 4,892 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Fulton County | 4,886 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Lee County | 4,778 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Randolph County | 4,702 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Iroquois County | 4,693 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Morgan County | 4,527 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Montgomery County | 4,307 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Shelby County | 4,172 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Logan County | 4,021 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Jersey County | 3,996 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Jo Daviess County | 3,669 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 19.7% |
| Saline County | 3,558 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| McDonough County | 3,489 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Fayette County | 3,441 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Wayne County | 3,118 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 34.5% |
| Hancock County | 3,082 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Perry County | 3,052 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.9% |
| Crawford County | 3,037 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Piatt County | 3,003 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 19.0% |
| Clark County | 2,827 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Douglas County | 2,807 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Pike County | 2,724 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Edgar County | 2,716 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Union County | 2,704 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Richland County | 2,678 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Washington County | 2,676 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Mercer County | 2,597 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.8% |
| De Witt County | 2,592 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Bond County | 2,565 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| White County | 2,507 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Clay County | 2,502 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.2% |
| Carroll County | 2,406 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Warren County | 2,261 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Ford County | 2,212 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Moultrie County | 2,208 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Massac County | 2,196 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Greene County | 2,154 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Menard County | 2,125 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.5% |
| Mason County | 2,091 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.8% |
| Cumberland County | 2,080 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Johnson County | 2,066 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Lawrence County | 2,064 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Jasper County | 2,001 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Marshall County | 1,957 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.0% |
| Wabash County | 1,852 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Cass County | 1,723 | Vance | 43.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Hamilton County | 1,509 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Edwards County | 1,244 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 35.6% |
| Schuyler County | 1,239 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Henderson County | 1,116 | Vance | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Putnam County | 1,016 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Calhoun County | 939 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Scott County | 932 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Stark County | 914 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Gallatin County | 876 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Brown County | 808 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 37.3% |
| Pope County | 753 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| Hardin County | 686 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Pulaski County | 634 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 38.7% |
| Alexander County | 573 | Vance | 39.7% | Trump Jr. | 36.8% |
RubioFavorite, wins 84% of runs
39.7%Rubio's projected share
1,463,365Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 39.7% | 581,357 | 84% | 33.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 22.9% | 335,282 | 10% | 12.9% |
| DeSantis | 13.3% | 194,321 | 4% | 10.0% |
| Haley | 8.3% | 121,518 | 1% | 5.8% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.5% | 79,735 | 1% | 7.0% |
| Cruz | 0.5% | 6,724 | <1% | 2.7% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 5,166 | <1% | 3.4% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Illinois votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in IllinoisBlack 3.1%, Hispanic 5.9%, Asian and other 2.7%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 33.1%, college graduates 45.8%, women 44.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,449,748 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,463,365 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook County | 456,274 | Rubio | 53.8% | Haley | 11.2% |
| DuPage County | 119,133 | Rubio | 51.7% | DeSantis | 11.3% |
| Will County | 87,134 | Rubio | 38.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.3% |
| Lake County | 80,930 | Rubio | 53.5% | Haley | 11.3% |
| Kane County | 60,904 | Rubio | 48.0% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| McHenry County | 47,286 | Rubio | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Madison County | 38,309 | Rubio | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Winnebago County | 32,557 | Trump Jr. | 32.2% | Rubio | 29.2% |
| St. Clair County | 29,036 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Rubio | 28.0% |
| Sangamon County | 27,350 | Rubio | 36.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| McLean County | 23,478 | Rubio | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 15.8% |
| Champaign County | 21,967 | Rubio | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 15.4% |
| Tazewell County | 21,059 | Trump Jr. | 33.6% | Rubio | 28.1% |
| Peoria County | 20,466 | Rubio | 35.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Kendall County | 18,319 | Rubio | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Rock Island County | 16,668 | Rubio | 32.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| LaSalle County | 15,666 | Trump Jr. | 42.5% | Rubio | 20.6% |
| Kankakee County | 13,556 | Trump Jr. | 47.4% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| DeKalb County | 13,026 | Rubio | 35.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Macon County | 12,668 | Trump Jr. | 42.2% | Rubio | 20.1% |
| Adams County | 10,585 | Trump Jr. | 47.5% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Williamson County | 10,544 | Trump Jr. | 41.9% | Rubio | 20.8% |
| Vermilion County | 8,962 | Trump Jr. | 53.7% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Grundy County | 8,367 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| Ogle County | 8,080 | Trump Jr. | 42.8% | Rubio | 20.1% |
| Whiteside County | 7,830 | Trump Jr. | 41.8% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Henry County | 7,673 | Trump Jr. | 40.9% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Macoupin County | 7,587 | Trump Jr. | 49.7% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Boone County | 7,228 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | Rubio | 25.5% |
| Woodford County | 7,004 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Rubio | 24.9% |
| Effingham County | 6,857 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Monroe County | 6,829 | Rubio | 33.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Coles County | 6,585 | Trump Jr. | 39.6% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| Clinton County | 6,575 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Knox County | 6,253 | Trump Jr. | 41.6% | Rubio | 21.0% |
| Stephenson County | 6,076 | Trump Jr. | 46.9% | Rubio | 16.9% |
| Franklin County | 6,034 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Jackson County | 5,864 | Rubio | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 27.2% |
| Marion County | 5,610 | Trump Jr. | 57.2% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Livingston County | 5,457 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Jefferson County | 5,451 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Christian County | 5,175 | Trump Jr. | 55.2% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Bureau County | 4,892 | Trump Jr. | 44.4% | Rubio | 19.0% |
| Fulton County | 4,886 | Trump Jr. | 46.7% | Rubio | 17.4% |
| Lee County | 4,778 | Trump Jr. | 47.1% | Rubio | 16.8% |
| Randolph County | 4,702 | Trump Jr. | 59.7% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Iroquois County | 4,693 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Morgan County | 4,527 | Trump Jr. | 46.0% | Rubio | 17.3% |
| Montgomery County | 4,307 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Shelby County | 4,172 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Logan County | 4,021 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Jersey County | 3,996 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Jo Daviess County | 3,669 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | Rubio | 24.5% |
| Saline County | 3,558 | Trump Jr. | 55.4% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| McDonough County | 3,489 | Trump Jr. | 34.0% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Fayette County | 3,441 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Wayne County | 3,118 | Trump Jr. | 62.5% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Hancock County | 3,082 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Perry County | 3,052 | Trump Jr. | 60.6% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Crawford County | 3,037 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Piatt County | 3,003 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Rubio | 25.7% |
| Clark County | 2,827 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Douglas County | 2,807 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Pike County | 2,724 | Trump Jr. | 59.3% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Edgar County | 2,716 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Union County | 2,704 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Richland County | 2,678 | Trump Jr. | 55.5% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Washington County | 2,676 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Mercer County | 2,597 | Trump Jr. | 44.7% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| De Witt County | 2,592 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Bond County | 2,565 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| White County | 2,507 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Clay County | 2,502 | Trump Jr. | 63.4% | DeSantis | 13.3% |
| Carroll County | 2,406 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Warren County | 2,261 | Trump Jr. | 43.9% | Rubio | 19.2% |
| Ford County | 2,212 | Trump Jr. | 53.1% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Moultrie County | 2,208 | Trump Jr. | 54.2% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Massac County | 2,196 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Greene County | 2,154 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 15.0% |
| Menard County | 2,125 | Trump Jr. | 42.9% | Rubio | 19.9% |
| Mason County | 2,091 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Cumberland County | 2,080 | Trump Jr. | 57.7% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Johnson County | 2,066 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Lawrence County | 2,064 | Trump Jr. | 60.2% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Jasper County | 2,001 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Marshall County | 1,957 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 15.7% |
| Wabash County | 1,852 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Cass County | 1,723 | Trump Jr. | 51.3% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Hamilton County | 1,509 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Edwards County | 1,244 | Trump Jr. | 63.9% | DeSantis | 13.4% |
| Schuyler County | 1,239 | Trump Jr. | 56.2% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Henderson County | 1,116 | Trump Jr. | 52.2% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Putnam County | 1,016 | Trump Jr. | 44.0% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Calhoun County | 939 | Trump Jr. | 56.3% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Scott County | 932 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Stark County | 914 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 15.9% |
| Gallatin County | 876 | Trump Jr. | 60.2% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Brown County | 808 | Trump Jr. | 63.7% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Pope County | 753 | Trump Jr. | 61.8% | DeSantis | 14.3% |
| Hardin County | 686 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Pulaski County | 634 | Trump Jr. | 64.2% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Alexander County | 573 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 14.8% |