2028 forecast · Wyoming · Democratic primary

Wyoming Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 59% of runs

55.8%Harris's projected share

17,051Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	55.8%	9,506	59%	5.9%
Buttigieg	11.2%	1,901	15%	18.4%
Newsom	10.6%	1,806	13%	10.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.8%	982	7%	8.6%
Ossoff	5.1%	868	6%	5.0%
Kelly	0.4%	75	1%	8.5%
Shapiro	0.2%	34	<1%	6.3%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Wyoming votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Wyoming

Progressive41%

Institutional16%

Working class and union15%

Democratic leaning independents12%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 1.7%, Hispanic 4.5%, Asian and other 2.5%, under 30 11.1%, 65 and up 35.7%, college graduates 42.5%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 15,391 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 17,051 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Laramie County	3,172	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Natrona County	2,114	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Albany County	1,515	Harris	54.5%	Buttigieg	11.8%
Teton County	1,291	Harris	54.3%	Buttigieg	12.1%
Fremont County	1,161	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Sweetwater County	1,014	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sheridan County	1,011	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Park County	959	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Campbell County	868	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Lincoln County	557	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Uinta County	489	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Carbon County	378	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Goshen County	342	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Converse County	334	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Big Horn County	283	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Sublette County	277	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Johnson County	265	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Platte County	250	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Washakie County	209	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Crook County	198	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Weston County	163	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Hot Springs County	144	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Niobrara County	57	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.3%

NewsomFavorite, wins 28% of runs

26.1%Newsom's projected share