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2028 forecast · Mississippi · Republican primary

Mississippi Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 52% of runs
33.0%Trump Jr.'s projected share
400,264Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance40.9%163,66048%35.2%
Trump Jr.33.0%132,13652%22.3%
Rubio7.8%31,365<1%2.5%
DeSantis6.5%25,816<1%5.5%
Haley1.4%5,641<1%0.3%
Kennedy Jr.1.3%5,092<1%3.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Mississippi votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Trump Jr.Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Mississippi
America First41%
Populist working class17%
Suburban professional16%
Republican leaning independents11%
Libertarian9%
Moderate independents3%

Black 9.1%, Hispanic 1.2%, Asian and other 1%, under 30 7.6%, 65 and up 38.6%, college graduates 31.7%, women 45.3%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 416,270 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 400,264 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Rankin County26,790Vance45.3%Trump Jr.26.9%
Harrison County26,604Vance44.1%Trump Jr.27.6%
DeSoto County26,251Vance42.8%Trump Jr.28.6%
Jackson County19,647Vance44.6%Trump Jr.28.6%
Madison County17,722Vance41.7%Trump Jr.19.8%
Hinds County16,500Vance32.8%Trump Jr.32.7%
Lee County12,638Vance43.3%Trump Jr.31.6%
Lamar County10,950Vance44.9%Trump Jr.28.4%
Pearl River County10,764Vance41.6%Trump Jr.37.8%
Jones County10,212Vance41.1%Trump Jr.36.4%
Hancock County9,134Vance46.1%Trump Jr.28.6%
Forrest County9,046Vance42.5%Trump Jr.27.1%
Lauderdale County8,368Vance40.3%Trump Jr.35.5%
Lafayette County8,090Vance42.6%Trump Jr.19.3%
Lowndes County7,024Vance40.6%Trump Jr.32.5%
Alcorn County6,635Vance42.1%Trump Jr.37.2%
Pontotoc County6,039Vance41.3%Trump Jr.37.9%
Lincoln County5,741Vance40.9%Trump Jr.37.1%
Monroe County5,568Vance40.5%Trump Jr.37.5%
Union County5,467Vance41.7%Trump Jr.37.6%
Oktibbeha County5,216Vance39.9%Trump Jr.21.9%
George County5,193Vance41.6%Trump Jr.38.1%
Warren County5,064Vance39.9%Trump Jr.32.8%
Itawamba County5,047Vance41.2%Trump Jr.38.8%
Tate County4,681Vance41.9%Trump Jr.34.5%
Prentiss County4,467Vance42.3%Trump Jr.36.7%
Tishomingo County4,355Vance42.5%Trump Jr.37.3%
Marshall County4,242Trump Jr.39.1%Vance37.6%
Panola County4,138Trump Jr.38.9%Vance37.8%
Tippah County4,128Vance41.3%Trump Jr.37.9%
Pike County4,062Trump Jr.40.4%Vance36.2%
Neshoba County4,026Vance40.3%Trump Jr.38.8%
Marion County3,912Trump Jr.40.1%Vance38.9%
Simpson County3,774Vance39.6%Trump Jr.38.5%
Newton County3,300Vance40.2%Trump Jr.37.9%
Stone County3,225Vance41.4%Trump Jr.37.0%
Copiah County3,153Trump Jr.38.3%Vance37.3%
Scott County3,097Trump Jr.40.2%Vance37.3%
Smith County3,080Vance39.9%Trump Jr.39.7%
Wayne County2,971Trump Jr.39.6%Vance38.7%
Covington County2,964Vance39.6%Trump Jr.38.3%
Adams County2,881Trump Jr.37.4%Vance36.8%
Grenada County2,851Vance39.2%Trump Jr.37.0%
Washington County2,808Trump Jr.39.3%Vance32.2%
Clarke County2,569Vance40.2%Trump Jr.38.2%
Leake County2,553Trump Jr.39.8%Vance38.0%
Winston County2,444Vance38.7%Trump Jr.38.2%
Attala County2,344Vance39.0%Trump Jr.37.9%
Greene County2,307Trump Jr.43.4%Vance37.1%
Bolivar County2,295Vance35.6%Trump Jr.35.1%
Yazoo County2,284Trump Jr.40.7%Vance34.8%
Perry County2,264Vance40.2%Trump Jr.39.4%
Calhoun County2,205Trump Jr.41.1%Vance38.6%
Amite County2,163Trump Jr.42.7%Vance36.8%
Clay County2,144Trump Jr.40.0%Vance35.3%
Webster County2,142Vance42.1%Trump Jr.36.8%
Jasper County2,105Trump Jr.41.6%Vance36.0%
Lawrence County2,081Trump Jr.39.7%Vance39.2%
Chickasaw County2,055Trump Jr.41.5%Vance36.6%
Walthall County2,023Trump Jr.41.2%Vance37.5%
Yalobusha County1,828Vance39.5%Trump Jr.38.4%
Carroll County1,790Vance40.0%Trump Jr.38.4%
Leflore County1,750Trump Jr.39.7%Vance30.9%
Sunflower County1,516Trump Jr.41.4%Vance31.3%
Choctaw County1,434Vance40.8%Trump Jr.37.9%
Franklin County1,394Vance39.9%Trump Jr.38.4%
Montgomery County1,306Vance38.8%Trump Jr.38.7%
Benton County1,261Trump Jr.40.6%Vance38.0%
Coahoma County1,254Trump Jr.40.4%Vance31.0%
Jefferson Davis County1,240Trump Jr.42.4%Vance34.2%
Tallahatchie County1,180Trump Jr.43.3%Vance33.5%
Holmes County1,040Trump Jr.42.5%Vance27.8%
Kemper County938Trump Jr.39.5%Vance35.4%
Noxubee County826Trump Jr.42.9%Vance31.0%
Humphreys County610Trump Jr.41.3%Vance29.7%
Wilkinson County597Trump Jr.44.2%Vance31.8%
Jefferson County525Trump Jr.42.4%Vance28.6%
Quitman County516Trump Jr.41.9%Vance31.1%
Claiborne County510Trump Jr.41.7%Vance26.7%
Tunica County477Trump Jr.42.4%Vance29.6%
Sharkey County328Trump Jr.42.1%Vance30.7%
Issaquena County141Trump Jr.46.3%Vance31.4%