2028 forecast · Maryland · Republican primary

Maryland Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 54% of runs

51.7%Vance's projected share

508,270Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Vance	51.7%	262,884	54%	31.4%
Rubio	32.2%	163,650	38%	21.9%
Trump Jr.	6.0%	30,624	6%	6.6%
DeSantis	1.0%	4,903	1%	7.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Maryland votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Maryland

America First43%

Suburban professional25%

Populist working class17%

Libertarian12%

Black 8.5%, Hispanic 4.8%, Asian and other 4.2%, under 30 7.9%, 65 and up 33.5%, college graduates 54.9%, women 44.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 459,066 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 508,270 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Montgomery County	83,306	Vance	45.5%	Rubio	39.3%
Baltimore County	69,307	Vance	52.3%	Rubio	31.6%
Anne Arundel County	58,431	Vance	50.3%	Rubio	33.9%
Prince George's County	38,541	Vance	53.6%	Rubio	29.3%
Harford County	31,408	Vance	54.2%	Rubio	29.5%
Frederick County	31,077	Vance	49.7%	Rubio	34.6%
Howard County	29,947	Vance	46.6%	Rubio	38.1%
Baltimore city	28,035	Vance	50.1%	Rubio	33.8%
Carroll County	23,551	Vance	54.1%	Rubio	29.7%
Washington County	15,894	Vance	58.0%	Rubio	25.1%
St. Mary's County	12,423	Vance	55.1%	Rubio	28.5%
Charles County	12,216	Vance	55.6%	Rubio	27.5%
Cecil County	12,172	Vance	57.6%	Rubio	25.7%
Calvert County	11,283	Vance	54.7%	Rubio	29.0%
Wicomico County	8,835	Vance	57.7%	Rubio	25.4%
Allegany County	7,537	Vance	59.6%	Rubio	23.3%
Queen Anne's County	7,414	Vance	56.5%	Rubio	26.9%
Worcester County	7,109	Vance	57.8%	Rubio	25.5%
Talbot County	4,572	Vance	54.3%	Rubio	29.5%
Garrett County	4,140	Vance	60.4%	Rubio	22.4%
Caroline County	3,731	Vance	60.8%	Rubio	21.8%
Dorchester County	3,255	Vance	60.2%	Rubio	22.4%
Kent County	2,244	Vance	54.9%	Rubio	28.8%
Somerset County	1,842	Vance	59.9%	Rubio	22.6%

RubioFavorite, wins 77% of runs

58.9%Rubio's projected share