2028 forecast · Maine · Republican primary
Maine Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 36.2% | 68,710 | 59% | 34.4% |
| Rubio | 31.3% | 59,413 | 39% | 22.5% |
| Trump Jr. | 11.2% | 21,305 | 1% | 6.2% |
| DeSantis | 5.5% | 10,358 | 1% | 5.8% |
| Haley | 4.7% | 8,957 | 1% | 5.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.9% | 3,500 | <1% | 4.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Maine votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MaineBlack 0.3%, Hispanic 0.7%, Asian and other 1.2%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 33.5%, college graduates 42.8%, women 44.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 18,627 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 189,719 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland County | 42,230 | Rubio | 51.5% | Vance | 21.1% |
| York County | 29,852 | Vance | 35.0% | Rubio | 35.0% |
| Penobscot County | 20,832 | Vance | 42.6% | Rubio | 22.1% |
| Kennebec County | 17,047 | Vance | 41.2% | Rubio | 25.2% |
| Androscoggin County | 13,650 | Vance | 42.7% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Aroostook County | 8,970 | Vance | 46.6% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Oxford County | 8,317 | Vance | 45.4% | Trump Jr. | 17.8% |
| Hancock County | 8,106 | Vance | 37.1% | Rubio | 32.4% |
| Somerset County | 7,220 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 21.3% |
| Waldo County | 5,759 | Vance | 40.8% | Rubio | 26.8% |
| Knox County | 5,693 | Vance | 35.8% | Rubio | 34.5% |
| Sagadahoc County | 5,436 | Rubio | 38.2% | Vance | 32.6% |
| Lincoln County | 5,346 | Vance | 38.1% | Rubio | 31.2% |
| Washington County | 4,445 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Franklin County | 4,223 | Vance | 42.9% | Rubio | 22.4% |
| Piscataquis County | 2,593 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 22.2% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 39.7% | 75,305 | 87% | 34.3% |
| Trump Jr. | 18.9% | 35,872 | 6% | 10.9% |
| DeSantis | 12.8% | 24,199 | 3% | 9.8% |
| Haley | 11.2% | 21,260 | 3% | 7.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.5% | 12,243 | 1% | 6.8% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 1,483 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Rand Paul | 0.5% | 893 | <1% | 4.5% |
| Cruz | 0.4% | 758 | <1% | 2.8% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Maine votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in MaineBlack 0.3%, Hispanic 0.7%, Asian and other 1.2%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 33.5%, college graduates 42.8%, women 44.2%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 18,627 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 189,719 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland County | 42,230 | Rubio | 55.2% | Haley | 19.1% |
| York County | 29,852 | Rubio | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 12.9% |
| Penobscot County | 20,832 | Rubio | 31.6% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Kennebec County | 17,047 | Rubio | 35.7% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Androscoggin County | 13,650 | Rubio | 31.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Aroostook County | 8,970 | Trump Jr. | 39.1% | Rubio | 20.4% |
| Oxford County | 8,317 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | Rubio | 25.6% |
| Hancock County | 8,106 | Rubio | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Somerset County | 7,220 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | Rubio | 19.5% |
| Waldo County | 5,759 | Rubio | 38.1% | Trump Jr. | 19.9% |
| Knox County | 5,693 | Rubio | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 12.8% |
| Sagadahoc County | 5,436 | Rubio | 48.3% | Haley | 13.2% |
| Lincoln County | 5,346 | Rubio | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 15.4% |
| Washington County | 4,445 | Trump Jr. | 38.8% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Franklin County | 4,223 | Rubio | 32.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.0% |
| Piscataquis County | 2,593 | Trump Jr. | 42.6% | Rubio | 17.7% |